easy does it

[schroedy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can protect your hand against a multi-draw board like this where you are going to hate more than half the deck AND you are possibly behind. Any overcard, any middle (straightish or boat-building) card, any flush card. Even an undercard doesn't feel quite right with the drawing limper in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the theory, then fold should be getting some votes. But surely no one, NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON, is even contemplating fold. We think we are probably, most of the time, ahead.

The fact that we may not stay there is reason to raise the flop and I would think the more ways we can get beat, the more reasons to push it on the flop.

[Lawrence Ng]

I like it.

Maximum extrapolated, minimum lossed.

Lawrence

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]

nevermind that tommy only posts hands that he knows will get people chatting. what he doesnt post are the 99% of the hands he probably plays by the book.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think you are probably right about that. However, that doesnt mean not raising the flop wasnt a mistake. Even if Tommy thinks there is a strong chance this guy is leading with a ten he still has to raise the flop, or at least pop the turn and fold to a three bet. To say nice hand or whatever here just isnt right.

[MN_Mime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where do you guys play that JT and T9 will threebet this turn?

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

A "player" will if he sees this opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I think L2's actions are more interesting than Tommy's here.

By the turn, L2 has already put PFR on a top pocket pair by virtue of his flop call but has decided to continue his aggression despite L1 who hasn't completely defined his hand as draw (could be slow-playing an 8). I don't think it's a good play for any T, but it's the only chance he has to win the pot if that's L2's piece of the flop.

If Tommy plays back and L1 drops, doesn't L2 have to represent the 8 to win?

I think L2's 8 has to play it the same way against this board and try to get the PFR to raise the draw out of the hand (or at least charge him since PFR probably slows down).

---

Back to Tommy's hand, I'm not advocating a fold because he might be ahead, but any action he starts loses so calling down and value betting at the end is best in this situation.

[Softrock]

Reading this post and the responses really got me thinking - good job, Tommy. My first reaction was similar to TSP and others - how could you not put in a raise on the flop and/or the turn? However, whenever I see someone who is a successful poker player or who strikes me as thinking at a deeper level than perhaps I'm capable I always try to stop and think "Maybe he/she knows something I don't?" I think most of us mid-range players (yeah I'd like to think I'm above that but as Buddha would say "If you think you're there, you're not"). This is the sort of hand that may mark the difference between us journeymen and our superiors. Many of us are stuck with the "protect your hand" or "make 'em pay to draw" thought process. We should be thinking beyond this - ie. in this situation, what is going to produce the maximum yield long-term. This latter involves considering what you lose if behind, the reality of being able to "protect your hand" etc. Let me try to think at a deeper level here.

There are three likely occurrence as this hand unfolds. They are:

A) Tommy's already behind and drawing to a two-outer at best

B) Tommy's ahead and will remain ahead as the turn and river arrive

C) Tommy's ahead but the turn or river will beat him

If this is situation A, playing aggressively costs more money unless you can actually fold this overpair if you get heavy action. How many of you could actually do this? If you raise the turn and get re-raised would you consider a semi-bluff from J9 maybe suited? I think most of us cost ourselves money and probably cannot muck this hand if we play aggressively and get re-action.

Situation B - If you're ahead do you make more money just calling along or do you simply push out inferior hands that are drawing thinly by playing more aggressively? Maybe this question itself is a close call but now put this is peerspective with the possibility of situation A. Does any slight gain here by playing aggressively offset the loss of playing aggressively if you are actually behind? I doubt it.

Situation C: In many games, no matter what you do you are going to be called to the river by top pair or a legitimate draw. I agree with TSP that it hurts if you let AK get there on the river - is such a hand likely and would such a hand call the turn? Probably not. Is KT calling to the river regardless of what you do? Probably in most games.

My point that I may not have demonstrated as artfully as I'd like is that on further thought I think Tommy's play is the better one here and one that I probably don't make.

I'm also reminded how much I love playing with those who think they've arrived as poker players and are not capable of recognizing what they don't know or at least considering that their approach and thought process may have flaws. I recall one of my favorite passages from the novel "Catch-22". Yossarian and the guys keep teasing Haversham that he has flies in his eyes. Haversham goes into the bathroom and looks in the mirror and says he's checked and he does NOT have flies in his eyes. Yoasarian's reply is something to the effect of "You can't see that you have flies in your eyes because you have flies in yor eyes". Rather apropos of poker don't you think?

Thanks Tommy.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
By the turn, L2 has already put PFR on a top pocket pair by virtue of his flop call

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? A flop call looks a lot more like overcards than a PP.

Justin A

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
"The turn was a five. L2 checked and L3 bet. I put L3 on a ten or an eight. I called, and L2 called. I put L2 on a draw. Still three of us."

If you put him on a ten or an eight then not raising here at the very least was awful since you can fold to a threebet and would either give yourself a lot more safe cards on the river when L2 folds or charge him an extra bet to draw. Plus you're getting called on the river by a T anyways. You earned a lot less than you should have here. -Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a big fan of a turn raise but I'm not sure the typical player can fold to a threebet unless he really knows L3's play. If L3 has been influenced by the Southern California nutty-aggressive style (or perhaps TV poker) the mere presence of two eights on the board (and the fact that L3 knows his pre flop raising opponent is unlikely to have an eight) often induces some frisky reraises. By the time the jacks are in position to call or fold to an L3 reraise the pot will have over 13 big bets (including the likely call from the L2 draw) or over 10 big bets (if the L2 draw was knocked out by the jacks original turn raise).

Combine the uncertainty that a reraise means an eight with the chances you can spike a river jack and I believe the decision to call a reraise on the turn is at least close and very player dependent.

Good thread but I'd like to see Tommy involve himself more beyond the original pot-stirring post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Tommy Angelo]

"Good thread but I'd like to see Tommy involve himself more beyond the original pot-stirring post"

I read the whole thread and I'm staggered by the wealth of wisdom. I got nothing to add strategywise except somebody said something about me not putting L2 on a draw until after he called the turn. That is correct and it was kind of important at the time. One of the reasons I lagged on the turn was that I knew I was going to find out cheap if L2 had slowplayed an eight or not.

Another kind of important thing was that I had such a dead read on L2 on the river that if he had hit an overcard on the river, I would have known. And I also knew that if L3 had bet out, that he had just passed up JJ on the last card somehow. If either of them had bet the river, I was going to fold, and it was going to be right to do so. Not a bad spot.


Tommy

[dankhank]

wow i was about to say how much i like this line and then tommy comes on saying he would've folded the river to a bet by either player. if L3 bets the river (which he could quite possibly do with a T, no?) then i make one more lazy call and see what's up. sure, you still have the L2 in there who might call with his spiked Q, but it's still worth seeing a showdown i think.

james282 point about "you and i both know L3's not three-betting without an 8" is a valid point, on the other side of the argument. but i still love this line. it lets you know where you're at, it's safe, and it's extracting money. oh and if L2 hits his Q-K-A on the river he might check it anyway, and you can see the showdown for free. or you can get frisky like tommy, at the last possible moment, when he knew his hand was good.

[schroedy]

[ QUOTE ]
wow i was about to say how much i like this line and then tommy comes on saying he would've folded the river to a bet by either player. if L3 bets the river (which he could quite possibly do with a T, no?) then i make one more lazy call and see what's up. sure, you still have the L2 in there who might call with his spiked Q, but it's still worth seeing a showdown i think.

james282 point about "you and i both know L3's not three-betting without an 8" is a valid point, on the other side of the argument. but i still love this line. it lets you know where you're at, it's safe, and it's extracting money. oh and if L2 hits his Q-K-A on the river he might check it anyway, and you can see the showdown for free. or you can get frisky like tommy, at the last possible moment, when he knew his hand was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me ask you this: if you had the option to pick up all your chips, put them in your pocket, and declare all in on the flop would you take it?

To me this is not a hand where you want to build and build and build your profit. This is a hand where you just pray to God that somehow the hand can end right here.