Counting outs

[sean c]

Party 2/4. Reads: UTG is lag. Button is a passive calling station.

Pre flop: UTG calls, folds to button who calls, SB calls and i check 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.

Flop(4 players 4sb): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB checks, i check,UTG bets, button calls, SB folds and i?

[Walker]

I figure your worth at least 8.5 outs. Easy call.

Double gutters are sexy

[stuartharris]

8.5 seems about right. Easy call. You don't have any overcards here, so I don't see any point in raising. If there were one more caller, I'd say raise and get as much money in the pot as possible.

I see the 3 of diamonds and 6 of diamonds as scare cards to enemy flush, are you guys giving them .5 outs each to get to 8.5? 1 full out each to other 3's and 6's and 1.5 to backdoor flush? Makes sense, I'd call too then.

[stuartharris]

If the ace of spades falls on the turn are we happy or sad? The spade gives us a ton of new outs to make our flush by the river and eliminates the most likely candidate for a bigger flush. On the other hand, it makes a full house a possibility. Does the good outweight the bad here?

If someone gets trip aces, that's clearly good for us, unless he already has the boat or gets it on the river.

The nightmare scenario is probably the ace of spades on the turn, then the 7 of spades on the river, completing our doomed flush.

[Walker]

any spade is a great card for us

[ QUOTE ]
If the ace of spades falls on the turn are we happy or sad? The spade gives us a ton of new outs to make our flush by the river and eliminates the most likely candidate for a bigger flush. On the other hand, it makes a full house a possibility. Does the good outweight the bad here?

If someone gets trip aces, that's clearly good for us, unless he already has the boat or gets it on the river.

The nightmare scenario is probably the ace of spades on the turn, then the 7 of spades on the river, completing our doomed flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about the Ace too, but dismissed the idea prematurely. I think we need to devaluate our outs a little bit more on the flop... Maybe the LAG/Station reads neutralizes this though?

[Greg J]

7 for the straight, and 1 for the low bd flush. I give you 8 outs, maybe 8.5. You easily have the odds to call this flop.

[sean c]

I figured i had eightish or so outs but no reason to split hairs as long as i had at least seven i was good. So everyone agrees i have at least seven so far. Anyway when the flop came i almost check/folded and the went wait a minute i have a double gutter and bdfd and called. Even if i knew what my outs were before i checked the flop i still probably wouldn't have bet with the lag on my left.

Turn(3 players 3.5bb): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I bet, UTG raises, button calls, i make it three, UTG capps, button calls and i call.

River(3 players 15.5bb): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i bet,UTG raises,button calls, i make it three again,UTG capps again, button calls and i call.

I win a 27+bb pot and am glad i didn't fold that flop.

Nut double gutter, bdfd, 6:1, closing action, even if you discount your diamond outs, you have 7.5 outs, so call.