10/20 AA Deep Stacks

[KaneKungFu123]

This is a tricky hand. Villian has the word "loose goofy" in my notes. I have $4100. He has me covered.

I am UTG, he is in MP. I get A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raise to $100. He calls.

Flop

4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet pot. He calls.

Turn

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I really dont like betting the turn here against players with this label because if they raise me then I have to fold. If I bet and they call, Im going to check the river, and have to call a large bet and theyll get paid off if they hit something odd. I know that a huge majority of the time I'm ahead here and they love to bet when checked to. It seems unlikley that he cold-called the flop with two pair or a set given our stack sizes and his image. So I can check-call or check-raise.

I check. He bets $870 into a $690 pot.

Whats your plan at this point? Do you perfer to lead the turn?

Looks like QQ or a big draw like JTc or QKc / AQc. He would raise sets, and two pairs on the flop presumably (unless he's really goofy), so they're the only hands I can see him having.

That said, its either check raise all in or fold. I actually think big draw is his most likely holding here so check raising big is 1000 times better than folding but since the stacks are so deep it lets him get away when he's drawing and stack you when he's not. I don't know what to do either, but I think calling here is pretty bad since he's likely pair + flush or straight + flush or already has you beat, but you don't really know what's a bad card for you on the river. Maybe my read is bad tho.

[Hattifnatt]

I think a 2/3 pot bet on the turn would have been better. If he raises, run!

[mgsimpleton]

yeah that´s what i would do if i were playing 2/4 - bet 2/3 pot... i mean that´s what the book says, right?

however, seeing as how if i´m hero, i´m playing 10/20 with 200BB against "loose goofy" i´d probably not scream overpair quite so loud, as kane mentioned, since it is very easy for him to bluff raise on the turn especially if he has a large draw, knowing hero can´t reasonably call with anything but QQ or 99. I agree with the first poster, this was my initial reaction as well, that he has some sort of big draw or a set with a big draw being much more likely. stacks are deep buuuut I still kind of like a big raise here... or fold. i´m sort of torn given the depth of the stacks, if you had 50 BB less i´d say it´s a check/push on the turn but here you won´t get caleld unless you´re beaten so your read has to be damned good to make this a profitable push for protection since you lose a crapload when he does call with a better made hand. it seems like your read isn´t too good (hence the posting of this hand) so i don´t think a fold is too far off though i´d probably push because my read vs a loose goofy unknown is 75/25 (anyone wanna do the math for my lazy self given these numbers?) and my instinct says it´s a close decision and i like to push. added benefit of you maybe still getting called by the 14 out-ish draw since people like those.

[TheArtist]

I only fold if he is world class player who has a good read on you. Like a good player will call you with a pair up to Q there. When you bet the pot, he knows you have a big pair. So he can take some chances and slowplay his set
even though there is a flush draw out there.

However, with out a good read on you, how can he slow play a set on the flop with a flush draw out there? Most decent players will raise there set there. Moreover, if he had QQ how can he over bet the pot on the turn? He really has to know that you are not capable of laying down big pairs to make that kind of overbet.

I would call the turn and decide on the river. Most players will check the river if they were betting the turn with KK, JJ, TT or AQ and value bet a bigger hand.

The problem with calling on the turn is if he is good he will put you on AA or KK, so if he has a good read on you, he might make a big bluff bet on the river so it can get tricky.

Richard

[mgsimpleton]

what range of hands can make calling here then "deciding" on the river more profitable than another line?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, its either check raise all in or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I the only one who thinks that playing for stacks this deep with AA on this board is bad?

[savman]

i agree with the turn check. check call is a great way to put onesself in a position to make a HUGE mistake on the river. i agree with the bird. you must either push or fold here. villain has made an awesome turn bet imo (accidentally??? i doubt it)....he is betting ~50bb committing your ~200bb....its close, especially against loose goofy, but i think i find a fold here. mainly b/c the way it was played this hand would affect me if i lost, and i dont see any metagame value that would make me feel better about losing.

[knifeandfork]

maybe loose goofy means he is goofy enough to call on the flop with a set "knowing" that a club free turn gives him a good chance to tie you up in an overpair.
or maybe he is just semibluffing with 12 or more outs to inspire the big laydown.
I think the hand would be interesting if he had called with a set because he had a decent read on you. but what do i know these stakes are a little steep for me.
I would probably call and look at the river squeeze my head and try to make the best decision then.

[flawless_victory]

nevermind.