Stupid question about pot equity

twang · #1 09-15-2005, 07:36 AM

I'm re-reading SSHE for the Xth time and got a bit confused about pot equity (a concept that I thought I understood).

When calculating my equity of the pot, should I include my own bet (the bet I'm about to call)?

Example: I have 10% draw in LP on the turn. The pot is 10 big bets. An early position player bets and three players calls, making the pot 14 big bets when it's time for me to act.

Is my pot equity 10% of 14 big bets = 1.4 big bets or 10% of 15 big bets = 1.5 big bets?

Octopus · #2 09-15-2005, 09:49 AM

... without your bet. You are paying 1 bet for a 10% chance at 14 bets. so your call (last to act, drawing to nuts, no other way to win, etc.) has a positive expectation of .4 bets (14*.1 - 1).

twang · #3 09-15-2005, 09:59 AM

Ok, that's how I have been calculating pot equity, but re-reading that section in SSHE made me think I might have misunderstood something.

Thanks.

#4 09-15-2005, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
... without your bet. You are paying 1 bet for a 10% chance at 14 bets. so your call (last to act, drawing to nuts, no other way to win, etc.) has a positive expectation of .4 bets (14*.1 - 1).

[/ QUOTE ]
but when you win you get 10% of your bet back making it an expectation of .5 bets.

example:
out of 10 times you win once
9* you net -1
1* you net +14 (the pot:15 - the one bet you put in)

(9*-1 + 1*14)/10 = +.5 bets

Octopus · #5 09-15-2005, 10:27 AM

Fair enough. You are paying .9 bets in expectation for the 1.4 bets in expectation. My error in thinking. (I hate it when that happens.)

SeaEagle · #6 09-15-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is my pot equity 10% of 14 big bets = 1.4 big bets or 10% of 15 big bets = 1.5 big bets?

[/ QUOTE ]
When you're making a fold or call decision, figure your bet into the pot equity.

For instance, if you have a 10% chance of winning the pot, you need 9 bets in the pot before you call in order for your call to break even.

You're probably confused because if your equity is expressed as pot odds (X-1) then X will represent the pot without your bet in it.

For example, you give yourself 4.6 discounted outs on the turn. You will hit 1 in 10 times (4.6 of 46). So you have 10% pot equity. But expressed as pot odds, you need 9-1 pot odds. So you need 9 bets in the pot for a call to break even.