Dammit Paul! Yer not making it easy for us to worship you.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Worship him? Scary...

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeez, I guess a LOT of people's sarcasm filters are on the fritz.

But seriously, me and Stuey's corpse could make beautiful music together.

[Jordan Olsommer]

[ QUOTE ]

But seriously, me and Stuey's corpse could make beautiful music together.


[/ QUOTE ]

Weekend at Stuey's?

"The only way out of here is through that block party; we can only hope that nobody decides to play conga music..."


*sigh* I'm never going to get gin lessons in the afterlife now.

[TimTimSalabim]

I haven't done the Bayesian analysis (I'm guessing it's been done in other threads, but I'm too tired now to try and find it), but my intuition tells me QJ is at least almost as likely as a set or a strong 2 pair, which probably had more to do with PC's not 3-betting the turn with his second nut hand than that TW was so incredibly easy to read. Also, wasn't PC kind of low on chips at the time? Which would also argue for just flat calling the turn raise and then calling the river.

[Jordan Olsommer]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't done the Bayesian analysis (I'm guessing it's been done in other threads, but I'm too tired now to try and find it), but my intuition tells me QJ is at least almost as likely as a set or a strong 2 pair,

[/ QUOTE ]

If we can eliminate KT or Ax (the board came down ATxK IIRC), then QJ is more than 50% likely given a range of {KK,TT,xx,AK,AT,QJ} - it has 16 of the 31 combinations.

[AcesUp]

Todd,

First, I should probably apologize for coming off so negative; from what I've seen, you're a very good limit tournament player who likely has the skills to succeed playing these types of events.

Second, I've been defending you a lot since the broadcast the other night. There have been a lot of people, both at the table and away from it, commenting on your antics, and I've made it clear to all of them that after playing with you both before and after that table, this was the first and only time I've seen you act that way.

Third, based on your current results, and my playing with you, it's obvious you play the skilled, aggressive type of game necessary to go deep in the big limit tournaments. In fact, if anything, I'd say are games are not that different.

What I did say is that I've seen you accumulate and lose (and accumulate and lose) chips faster than probably anyone I've ever played with at Limit Hold'em. Again, not necessarily bad when playing a 25 hour tournament where short-term chip accumulation is paramount to going deep in the money.

My thought (and what I didn't articulate well) is that this style of play isn't necessarily condusive to long-term success at cash games. It might work short-term against players that don't play with you often, but against stronger players who you might play with day-in and day-out, I imagine you would have tremendous variance in your earnings, and I just don't see it as a winning strategy.

That said, perhaps you play cash games differently than I've seen you play tournaments, or perhaps I just have no idea what I'm talking about, but that's what drove my comment above.

I didn't mean for it to come off as harshly as it did, and I didn't mean to imply that I have any first-hand knowledge of your cash-game play.


-Aces

[Dan Druff]

Yup... that's exactly correct. QJ was the likely hand for me to have there (not certain, but likely), and Costa was very short stacked. 3-betting the turn in such a situation would have been a huge mistake -- both in theory and results-wise for that hand. If he 3-bet there, he would have been 4-bet, and then would have been stuck either making a tough laydown or wasting yet another big bet on the river, which I believe would have put him all-in (or impossibly short stacked).

I don't even understand the "easy to read" comments. Sure, it was easy for the ESPN viewer to tell what I had -- it was right there on the screen! Are they saying it was easy to tell from my banter during the hand? I did the same type of stuff whether I had a great hand or a poor one.

There's also a misconception regarding my statements when the hand began. Some people thought they heard me say to Costa, "Last time I had this hand, I made the nuts with it", when I actually said, "Last time I was in this position (the big blind), I made the nuts." This was in reference to a flush I made about 10 minutes earlier with Ad5d in the BB. In fact, I believe I made this statement before I even looked and saw what my hand was.

On the flop of ATx, I made the statement, "Well, I don't have the nuts yet, I'll take one off" (or something like that). Sure, that was actually the truth with QJ, but I would have said that with ANY hand that I chose to call the flop with. It was a continuation of the banter about "always having the nuts in this position" from 30 seconds earlier.

Mind you, I was just saying all of this to joke around. I didn't think it was going to confuse Costa, nor did I think that it would give anything away. I'm still certain that I didn't give off any "tells", and that Costa's decision was purely situational.

A lot of armchair poker television viewers classify themselves as expert hand readers, simply because they think they're matching what they see on the screen with people's reactions and/or statements. Until you can actually put someone on a hand that you CAN'T see, you have no idea what a "tell" really is.

Besides, this isn't "Rounders". Few tells are as simple as Teddy KGB and his Oreo cookies. Until you've played with someone awhile and witnessed what he usually does when he has a good hand and DOESN'T have a good hand, you can't read him. A highly-edited 1-hour ESPN broadcast isn't going to allow for that sort of detailed evaluation.

Reminds me of a 90-year-old guy I once played with at Commerce. I had aces and he flopped a set of nines. His hand was shaking whenever he put out the chips, so I put him on a big hand and slowed down early. When I saw his set, I felt like a hand-reading genius. That was, until I saw him play a few more hands. He shook the same way when calling down bottom pair. It turned out the only "tell" from his shaking was the condition of his aging joints.

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
At no point do I assert that "online poker is rigged". I stated that I had been experiencing a disproportionate number of bad beats and ugly second-best situations over a very extended period of time on one particular site (Pokerstars). I further stated that these results nowhere near mirrored my results elsewhere, both live and online.

[/ QUOTE ]

so what were you saying?

[TheBlueMonster]

[ QUOTE ]
Reminds me of a 90-year-old guy I once played with at Commerce. I had aces and he flopped a set of nines. His hand was shaking whenever he put out the chips, so I put him on a big hand and slowed down early. When I saw his set, I felt like a hand-reading genius. That was, until I saw him play a few more hands. He shook the same way when calling down bottom pair. It turned out the only "tell" from his shaking was the condition of his aging joints.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny story and a nice way to end what was turning out to be a really annoying argument.

who cares how skilled the guy played or how much money he has won before, by all accounts he did indeed act like the [censored] you saw on the WSOP broadcast.

think that through, it wasnt as if the cameras magically showed up in the middle of a game, you were fully aware that anything you did would be recorded and edited into a television program, and instead of trying to put your best foot forward, you made yourself look like a [censored] joke on television and not only embarassed yourself but your [censored] family as well.

nice job, [censored].

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
who cares how skilled the guy played or how much money he has won before, by all accounts he did indeed act like the dickhead you saw on the WSOP broadcast.

think that through, it wasnt as if the cameras magically showed up in the middle of a game, you were fully aware that anything you did would be recorded and edited into a television program, and instead of trying to put your best foot forward, you made yourself look like a [censored] joke on television and not only embarassed yourself but your [censored] family as well.

nice job, asswipe.

normally i would tell you to please kill yourself, but then who would support your girlfriend who is singlehandedly putting colonel sander's grandkids through college?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great, the tools just keep on coming.

Oh Dynasty!