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#1
01-17-2005, 01:18 PM
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Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
Lets say that I am in the small blind with 2400, bb has 1600, and the button has 2600. It is 5 handed, and utg(who has already folded) has 160. Everyone folds to the button, who pushes all in, the range of hands that I put the button on is any two cards, except JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ, and AK.
My confidence level for winning the tourney if I call and win is 70%. My confidence level for placing at least 2nd if I call and win is 90%. My confidence level for placing at least 3rd if I call and win is 100%. My confidence level for winning if I fold is 30%. My confidence level for getting at least second if I fold is 60%. My confidence level for getting at least 3rd if I fold is 75%. My confidence level for getting at least 4th if I fold is 100%. Can someone give me the expected value of calling vs folding using 1065 as the buy in? 
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#2
01-17-2005, 01:43 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
I think it would be useful to know what your hand is.
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#6
01-17-2005, 02:04 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
Come on Giga, did you ask people to do your math homework for you in high school?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
I'll oblige, but for simplicity's sake, I'm ignoring the "not AA-JJ, AK, AQ thing", and assigning the button any two cards. KQs vs. two random cards = 0.634 chance to win. Since you gave those "confidence statistics", I'll use them, and buy-in, blinds, and stack sizes are irrelevant. If you call and win: 1st - 70% 2nd - 20% 3rd - 10% 4th - 0% 5th - 0% If you call and lose: 5th = 100% If you call: (0.634)[(.7)($4500)+(.2)($2500)+(.1)($1800)] + (0.366)($0) = <font color="red">$2428.22</font> If you fold: 1st - 30% 2nd - 30% 3rd - 15% 4th - 25% 5th - 0% If you fold: (.3)($4500)+(.3)($2500)+(.15)($1800)+(.25)($1200) = <font color="red">$2670.00</font> Damn close, and if you throw out the possibility of the big pairs and big aces, it's even closer to 50-50. Still a slight lean towards a fold though.
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#7
01-17-2005, 02:22 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
Thank You, and yes, I had my brother do my math homework, he is a math genius, but too busy to figure this out for me, I wouldn't know where to begin to figure this out.
I know all the numbers by rote, i couldn't conclusively prove them to myself, I just trust that the people who do figure it our are right.
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#8
01-17-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
OK, if we take Kd and Qd out of the deck, there are 1250 possible hands. KdQd is .6340040 against a random hand. We need to take out the possibility of JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ, and AK.
Total possibility: .6340040 * 1250 = 792.505 Minus: JJ: .46 * 6 = 2.76 QQ: .35 * 3 = 1.05 KK .13 * 3 = .39 AA .18 * 6 = 1.08 AKo .30 * 9 = 2.70 AKs .28 * 3 = 0.84 AQo .30 * 9 = 2.70 AQs .28 * 3 = 0.84 792.505 – (2.76 + 1.05 + .39 + 1.08 + 2.70 + 0.84 + 2.70 + 0.84) = 780.145 Total possible hands = 1250 – (6 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 9 + 3 + 9 + 3) = 1208 780.145/1208 = .6458 against the hands left (interesting that it barely improves your odds against a random hand to take those hands out) If you call: You will win .6458 * .70 = .452 * 4500 = $2034 You will take 2nd .6458 * .20 = .129 * 2500 = $322.50 You will take 3rd .6458 * .10 = .065 * 1800 = $117 You will lose .354 * 0 = $0 Total Expected Value: $2473.50 If you fold: You will win .30 * 4500 = $1350 You will take 2nd: .30 * 2500 = $750 You will take 3rd: .15 * 1800 = $270 You will take 4th .25 * 1200 = $300 Total Expected Value: $2670 So you have a higher expected value if you fold. I have a question for you. How do you pronounce Gigabet. Is it: A) Giggabet B) Jiggabet C) Jijjabet D) Gidget
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#9
01-17-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
[ QUOTE ]
Come on Giga, did you ask people to do your math homework for you in high school?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I'll oblige, but for simplicity's sake, I'm ignoring the "not AA-JJ, AK, AQ thing", and assigning the button any two cards. KQs vs. two random cards = 0.634 chance to win. Since you gave those "confidence statistics", I'll use them, and buy-in, blinds, and stack sizes are irrelevant. If you call and win: 1st - 70% 2nd - 20% 3rd - 10% 4th - 0% 5th - 0% If you call and lose: 5th = 100% If you call: (0.634)[(.7)($4500)+(.2)($2500)+(.1)($1800)] + (0.366)($0) = <font color="red">$2428.22</font> If you fold: 1st - 30% 2nd - 30% 3rd - 15% 4th - 25% 5th - 0% If you fold: (.3)($4500)+(.3)($2500)+(.15)($1800)+(.25)($1200) = <font color="red">$2670.00</font> Damn close, and if you throw out the possibility of the big pairs and big aces, it's even closer to 50-50. Still a slight lean towards a fold though. [/ QUOTE ] and how exactly does the breakdown of this interesting equation come about and how commonplace is it in big buy-ins? how valuable (if at all) is this type of math equation if it were to be used in lower buy-ins?
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#10
01-17-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
you're hardly against "any two cards though." although given the situation, the button has a range probably of the top 70% of all possible hands. I would say, given you've thrown away the big pairs and AK, maybe about 60% of the time you're a slight underdog or a 3:2 underdog. and the remaining 40% you're likely dominating, or a 3:2 favorite. I think 70% confidance for a win is on the high side.
all these factors reduce the EV on calling even more, probably making fold the better option.
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