I'm so lost at the river here multiway with AA

[SoCalPat]

Didn't save the hand. My apologies.

I'm on the button with AA. Two seats to my right is a maniac, who has gotten clobbered by the deck after PF raising Q4o and 57o.

Several limpers, prolly 5 to me. I raise, everyone but one of the blinds call.

Raising war between myself and the maniac erupts on a 9-high, two-suited flop. Turn brings a rag, but the player to the right of the maniac comes out with a turn three-bet after I raised the maniac. Maniac calls, as do I.

Down to three, river brings another 9 AND puts a three-flush on the board. Turn C/R'er bets, maniac raises.

What in God's name do you do here?

[callmedonnie]

Is the turn c/r a decent player? If so, your hand is worthless. Sounds like the pot is huge so if I could close the action I think I have to call a bet. If there is a chance of a raising war and getting caught in the middle, I think I'm folding. So I think I'm folding.

[jackdaniels]

Fold. If it was one bet to you, a crying call. 2 bets and you have to fold it.

If the river didn't bring a second nine or a third diamond, MAYBE you are still ahead. As it stands, someone made their flush/set and you are beat. NOTE: It would be helpful to know if the guy who 3 bet the turn out of the blue saw what maniac did in previous rounds.

You're the meat in the raising sandwich on the river. If you could close action with a crying call, that would be one thing. I'd probably fold. Think it would be a miracle for your hand to be good with this much action.

ScottieK

[SoCalPat]

You'll get a kick out of this one.

Turn C/R turns up ... AA

Maniac shows JJ.

I felt so suckered by this. I had convinced myself that the maniac had a 9. I fully expected the turn C/R'er to show a boat. When he didn't make it three bets after my fold, I started to get a little sick. He would've jammed a flush against this player. He obviously had something less than a flush.

Heads up against either one, I wouldn't have put either one of them on a 9. The maniac would've continued to jam whatever he had (it could've been anything) on the turn, and I'm not sure the turn C/R'er would've check-raised me with only top pair on the board. But multi-way, the action and the resulting cards threw me for a loop.

The turn C/R'er obviously had seen enough of the maniac to limp behind. I have no idea why he didn't make it three bets PF, but as it turned out, it worked perfectly for him, as he used the maniac and his good (yet woefully inferior) hand to drive me out.

Pot was $122. Yeah, I would've chopped, but this is easily my worst fold ever.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't save the hand. My apologies.

I'm on the button with AA. Two seats to my right is a maniac, who has gotten clobbered by the deck after PF raising Q4o and 57o.

Several limpers, prolly 5 to me. I raise, everyone but one of the blinds call.

Raising war between myself and the maniac erupts on a 9-high, two-suited flop. Turn brings a rag, but the player to the right of the maniac comes out with a turn three-bet after I raised the maniac. Maniac calls, as do I.

Down to three, river brings another 9 AND puts a three-flush on the board. Turn C/R'er bets, maniac raises.

What in God's name do you do here?

[/ QUOTE ]
See this is tricky because I like to disregard every single bet from a maniac unless i have Q-hi. They are so retarded and so random that you cant respect them. I had a maniac cap 28o pf against me and cap the flop with a gutshot, of course to hit it on the turn against my KK, so anyway, i think your opponent knows this and could be overplaying a decent hand like top pair and this is a rare occasion when i have to call down for 2 bets on the river with just an over pair.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

Pot was $122. Yeah, I would've chopped, but this is easily my worst fold ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

Here's an exercise for you.

1. Give hand ranges to both of your opponents. You can be pretty liberal in this.

2. Determine what percentage of the time you are beating both players.

3. Compare that percentage to the odds the pot was giving for you to call two bets on the river.

4. Calculate your expectation on a river call.

5. Take that number, and that methodology, and drive them into your head.


Now do you still think that this is the worst fold you ever made?

My point is that you mistake by folding this river is really never that big. Getting like 10-1 or whatever on the river (this was 3/6, right?), you only made about a 1 BB mistake if you would have won this 20% of the time, which you basically never are.

You probably made the right decision folding. I would have. If it was a mistake, it wasn't bigger than the amount of money you give up every time you post the small blind....