NL Preflop Question

[DavidC]

EV of folding is zero.
EV of pushing is -$28.2789.

Edit: Crap!
I have some trouble with the following math:

AA = 3 hands
KK = 6 hands
QQ = 3 hands
JJ = 6 hands
TT = 6 hands

purely, chances of having AK:
7(4)/2 + 7(3)/2? No...
7(3.5)/2? No...
7(x)/2? maybe, but what's x? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

x = (4/7)*3 + (3/7)*4?
= 1.71 + 1.71 = 3.42?

This is awfully close to 3.5... is this just a precision error?

Therefore AK = 7(3.42)/2 = 12 hands?

Also, what are the chances of him having AK, given that he could have AA or KK, likewise the chances of him having AA or KK given that he could have AK and that I DO have AQ...

Basically, there's a difference when I crunch out the nubmers manually and when I use pokerstove to do it: it's a small difference though (actual hand distributions vs envelope math version).

Anyways, there's 36 hands, of which, he folds 1/6 of the time, so the ev of pushing becomes:

(1/6)*130 = +$21
(5/6)*((610*0.28151)-300) = (5/6)*(-128) = -106

Therefore the EV of pushing is actually -$85.89 or something like that.

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When you hit an ace or queen on the flop: A87r and Q87r, your equity is 66% and 65% respectively.

If you miss the flop on 872r, your equity is 15%, and you're forced to fold.

This comes out to something like -$53 weighted to missing, and +31 weighted to hitting, so you lose maybe $20 by playing the flop.

I didn't look at flops like AKQs (33% equity) and AT4 (55% equity), but I'm not sure how often those types of flops are going to hit the board.

Suffice to say that I picked some fairly favourable flops to work with here.

So you lose AT LEAST $20 by playing, if I'm not mistaken, maybe more.

I guess folding is the best option.

[DavidC]

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david-

what does this hand query have to do with televised tournaments and the like?

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Are you serious?

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yeah, i am.

i think its a good question, im not knocking it for that. look at the context of my post. this should be posted somewhere else, both because the WPT forum standard is abysmal, and it just doesnt fit.

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Hehehe... why doesn't the forum mod just move the post? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Sklansky did leave out a bunch of details in this question... wasn't the #1 thing to think about in HoH "What is your status in the tourney?"

Since we're doing this question on the basis of chip EV, it should be in the NLHE forums (one of them).

But at the same time, I think if you write a few awesome poker books we should cut you a little slack.

[DavidC]

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You have a point Voltron, but I'm pretty sure Sklansky uses this forum as his default outlet for his poker quizzes. His other posts in this forum have had little or no relation to televized poker or its personalities, per se. It is kind of a variation of the "I know this isn't the right forum but it gets the most traffic" so maybe Dynasty should step up and move the thread to a more appopriate forum.

Realistically, Sklanksy can get away with it. Do you see why?

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I clicked on this forum by accident.

Are you serious that it gets the most traffic?

Hmm... how can you tell? I'm curious, now.

[DavidC]

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i hate that people like paul phillips never post in MHNL. Maybe that is why you would post this here, because maybe those type of people will respond. But I would like if you posted in MHNL as well, so the fact that this is here makes me very sad.

Please give a real reaosn for posting this here. The responses will be 95% morons like all the other posts in this forum.

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FWIW, I just posted this in the two PL/NL forums.

[DrPublo]

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If you flop a queen you are now ahead of TT and JJ and AK, which have 2,2, and 3 outs respectively. You have 5 outs against KK and 2 outs against AA. You have no outs against QQ.

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Running aces saves you against QQ.

You should also factor in flopping straights and flushes (or flush draws) as this will give a few extra %.

The Doc

[luckOverSkill]

At best you're a coin flip AQ vs (pocket Js or lower)
otherwise you're a dog (AQ vs AK, AQ vs QQ or higher).
Why take the chance? Also, being the BB means you have
to act first every round if you were to take a flop.
Am I missing something or is this a trick question.
Fold!

[valenzuela]

10/20 blinds...I dont give a fcuk about eliminating a player at this point. I will do some rough math.
Fold: -20
Call: -15. You have a 210 pot. To move in on the flop u need a 32% of winning to make moving in profitable. ( rough estimate)
Nothing flops( 2/3rds of the time): u fold...-100
Q(1/6th of the time:+133( due to Ak frequency)
TT: 6..+290
JJ: 6..+290
QQ: 1..-299
KK: 6..-180
AA: 3..-270
AK: 12.+270
An A flops( 1/6th of a time):+176( we see less AK)
TT: 6...+290
JJ: 6...+290
QQ: 3...+300
KK: 6...+290
AK: 8...-225
Pushing:-78.
TT:6...+110
JJ:6...-40( assuming JJ wins like 57% of the time)
QQ:3...-117( 70% of the time QQ wins)
KK:6...-117
AA:3...-250
AK:12..-150

Thereby the best play is calling, although in all cases youre going to have less chips than the ones u originaly had.

[valenzuela]

Good news there is a SB nowadays...

[Gordon Scott]

I need to know how big my stack is and what we started with.

[DavidC]

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Good news there is a SB nowadays...

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I have no idea how this relates to me.

Just to double check my formulas, I did include the sb...

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(5/6)*((610*0.28151)-300) = (5/6)*(-128) = -106

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