3/6 - TP weak kicker

housenuts · #1 11-21-2005, 06:00 AM

I don't use PA HUD because I'm trying to develop my own reads of people. However, this is the 4th hand and I haven't seen anything noteworthy, nor do I have previous notes.

The flop and turn are pretty easy. What about the river? Is this a spot where I try to induce a busted flush to bluff? Or do I value bet hoping those mid-pairs, maybe AT, will call?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

toss · #2 11-21-2005, 06:04 AM

I'd say this this is an easy bet/fold. I can see them calling down with a smaller pocket pair, a 9, even Ace high.

housenuts · #3 11-21-2005, 06:12 AM

i really hate bet/folding (not just here, but generally). it's most likely a big leak, but once i put that bet in there, i think there's a good enough chance he's bluffing (although in reality, there isn't a good enough chance) but i just can't lay it down at this point

toss · #4 11-21-2005, 06:23 AM

I don't often see villain raising the river here with a hand we beat. And if he does I'll be sure to make a note on him that he likes to bluffraise the river. What does villain think we're betting all 3 streets with?

#5 11-21-2005, 07:00 AM

I think the Q on the river changes nothing, if anyone had QJ they had you beat all the way down anyway. Bet and fold to a raise.

#6 11-21-2005, 04:21 PM

I would check-call the river. The likely hands for the two opponents are (1) a busted flush draw; (2) J-x; or (3) 5-x for trip-5s. A busted flush draw will probably not call your bet, unless he happens to have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If he has J-x, you'll more than likely split the pot (J-J-5-5-Q). If he's got trip-5s, it's going to cost you 2 bets to see the river since he will likely raise you to get more value out of the trips. Checking probably won't cost you any money, as anyone who is going to call you either has you beat or will chop the pot with you. However, if someone does bet, the pot is too large to simply give up your hand, so you should simply call, provided that the bet isn't raised before it gets back to you.

#7 11-21-2005, 04:29 PM

Bet they've probably got some crap that will give you an extra one or two bets out of generosity.

#8 11-21-2005, 05:01 PM

I value bet. I see villains calling down with a pair of nines, 66-88, and TT that they were too scared to raise before the flop. You really have no reason to think that these two are anything but passives that won't try a bluff anyway...if CO bets, he probably is over-slowplaying trips or has a queen. Just bet/fold here.

jskills · #9 11-21-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Q on the river changes nothing, if anyone had QJ they had you beat all the way down anyway. Bet and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well doesn't the Q on the river make the Q our kicker? So if we were up against JT we now split right?

#10 11-21-2005, 05:19 PM

I check call. I don't think you are getting anyone to pay you off that you beat. I think that the best case scenario is a chop chop situation and I feel that screws with this as a "Value bet" because when you lose, you lose 100% and when you gain, you gain 50%.

What percentage do you have to be good here to make that up?

Check/Call.