Tournament Theory question

[David Sklansky]

It is the first day of a long 10K no limit tournament. All the players are about equal except for me. I estimate my chances of getting to 20K by playing normally is 60%. On the first hand a player pushes all in in the SB and unwittingly exposes his cards to me in the big blind (no penalty). No other players

The following question assumes that I am not concerned about hourly rate or getting into a side game if I go broke. It also assumes that the size of the blinds is insignificant. In other words, assume I am getting exactly even money if I call.

I should call if I think my chances of winning are

A. Anything over 50%

B. A bit less than 60%

C. Anything over 60%. Exactly 60% is a push.

D. A bit more than 60%

E. Significantly more than 60%.

[Wake up CALL]

E. Significantly more than 60%

I'll let others elaborate.

[RiverMel]

Aren't options C and D the same? Isn't 'a bit more than 60%' just a different way of saying 'anything over' unless of course you are using the term 'a bit' in a non-standard way, to mean 'substantially', in which case options D and E are the same? Either way, you have one too many choices.

[tw texas]

A, unless you plan on quitting once you get to 20k. In that case it would be C, because that would improve your odds from 60% to...more than 60%.

[Piiop]

C.
Any chance of winning the hand above 60% would accomplish the same goal as if you were "playing normally". The only difference is that you will reach 20k faster because you're putting it all on one hand. Also, if the chances are above 60% then its clearly a better decision (than not calling and playing normally) solely based that percent to win 20k. In this situation, I dont think anything else can be a factor in making the decision.

This is my first post. So, hi everyone.

[RiverMel]

It depends how good you think you are compared to the other players. Your stat about what % chance you think you have to get to 20k doesn't tell us anything about your perceived edge over the field. Does 'playing normally' mean eschewing all bets where your edge is no more than 50%? 51%? The problem with this question is that to be able to answer it, you need to know what bets you would take under 'normal' conditions. And once you know that, the solution to your question is trivial.

For us to be able to answer the question, we need to know the perceived advantage. Your figure about reaching 20K doesn't tell us this, because how exactly are we supposed to compute your perceived edge over the field by your perceived chances of doubling your stack?

[TimTimSalabim]

I'll be willing to sacrifice a bit of equity to have my double-up come now instead of later, because in a no-limit tourney there is a certain advantage to wielding a big stack. But I'm not going to sacrifice a lot, so I'll take answer B.

[David Sklansky]

When I said you have a 60% chance of getting to $20,000 if you played "normally", I should have just said that you have a 60% chance of getting to $20,000 if you fold this first hand.

Also C and D are not the same. C is 60.000001%. D is meant to mean more like 62%.

[magic_man]

My initial instinct is to agree with E here, though I admit that part of my reason is the mere fact that you asked the question. If you call all-in with a 60% chance of winning, it's true that you'll have the same odds of doubling up as if you played normally. The problem here, I think, is that you have a 40% chance of going broke instantly (assuming you call with exactly a 60% chance of winning). If you play normally, I doubt your chances if busting out will be that high. You stated merely that your chances of reaching 20k were 60%, which is much, MUCH different than saying that your chances of busting out were 40%, as they would be if you called. This is one of those situations where you have a fairly high risk for a reward that you can get just as well by playing good, conservative poker (which means lower risk).

There may be something more important here though. You stated that your chances of doubling to 20k were 60% playing normally. If you win this hand, what will be your chances of doubling again to 40k? If you feel it is still 60%, I may change my opinion. I just started on a new level of tournament play, so I'm interested in other thoughts on this one.

~Magic Man

[baggins]

D seems intuitively to be the best answer. but i really don't know for sure.