Trouble With Set.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Looking mathematically at it, 4 players and 8 cards saw a reraised pot in full ring. I would be VERY VERY surprised if one of those 8 cards wasnt an Ace. Since Button/CO dont have an ace, and you dont, that means MP2 does. He could also have two of em. He was clearly going for a flop c/r.

So his hand range for me is:
AK/AQ with at least one big spade 50% (looking to buy a cheap showdown on blank river limit stylee)
AA- 50%
And some chance of a donkey hand.

So 3-betting turn is not a good idea, thus I call.

I check instafold a spade river, I check call a blank depending on odds given, I lead/fold to big raise a board pair, and I check raise if the board pairs aces.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
He could also have two of em.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he just calls PF?


[ QUOTE ]
He was clearly going for a flop c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you say this? Just because of action on flop? Is it wrong to think he could have a flush here? That's probably the only hand that doesn't want to CR or lead the flop all the time, so chances are probably small.


[ QUOTE ]
AK/AQ with at least one big spade 50% (looking to buy a cheap showdown on blank river limit stylee)
AA- 50%
And some chance of a donkey hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, that's over 100%. Would a player with AK/AQ + a spade really raise this here? What's he going to put me on? My VPIP is like 14 over 20,000 hands and I'd like to think I'm one of the better players in the game.


[ QUOTE ]
I check call a blank depending on odds given

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you think it's a tossup between AA and not AA (why aren't a flush or TT in the range, btw), what kinda bet are you folding to?

MP2 with a PFR of 9% he is raising Sklansky group 1-3 hands. That would put MP2 range AQ suited-AT, QQ-TT, and maybe KQ spades. AA, KK, and AK I would think he would reraise to reduce the number of hands drawing against him.

I hate laying down a set here. So I would call the turn, then check call a non-all in river bet.

[Rotating Rabbit]

This is 200nl full ring, lots of players wouldnt 3bet aces when they should. And if they didnt, most would continue the slowplay then come out of nowhere later in the hand, which is exactly what it looks like.

This guy is 2.7 aggression and 3% pfr. Added to the fact that id bet the farm on him having 1+ aces just because you dont have 4 way reraised pots in full ring without an ace somewhere (so for me a set of 10s would be a huge shock, but in any case its the same as AA from our pov), a guy with 2.7 agg just doesnt make turn calls with top pair nut flush draw in position, he by default raises becuase thats what he loves to do (incorrectly against your hand range perhaps- most players dont think as much as you do!).

Re: flush, I said 50% AK/AQ with at least one spade, (ie 2 spades a quarter of the time). I.e. 50% * 25% = 13% or so nut flush. It didnt affect my actions on the river though so I didnt elaborate.

I take your point re: probabilities adding up to 100%, i was just trying to convey what i would have thought if i was playing the hand, Ida gone 'meh, half the time AK with a spade or two, half the time AA, and a little chance of some joke hand', i didnt want to be pinickity and go '45% chance AA' etc...!


i hope it worked out ok