shorting TOL

cdxx · #1 11-08-2005, 07:21 PM

any opinions here?

obviously the housing bubble is going to come down. TOL is just about the purest housing company that's a lock to come down as the whole industry slows down. about a month ago i would probably guess that housing has 50-50 chance of growing/collapsing in the next few months, but once it broke down it would stay there. it looks like it finally did, earlier than i thought. any room to go here? another 7-8 point drop in this stock?

AceHigh · #2 11-08-2005, 09:15 PM

If you are just shorting for the next few days it might make sense. They will probably take a hit tommorrow. But you have to be careful with this company, it is already beat up and it's p/e was under 9 before today, so I'm not sure how much downside there is. Sure, a lot of the growth has gone out of the stock but they are a good company, they are going to sell a lot of homes next year. Just not as many as people thought before today. They are still hoping to see 4-6% growth next year.

What do you think a fair p/e for TOL is? Because my guess is 7-9 range and that's where they are now.