Overcards misses

Villain is 77/28/1.1 over 105 hands.

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.


Turn: (4.00 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero folds.

When I am called on flop and raised on turn I always think there is a hand behind. If villain wants to bluff he mostly raises flop. Or have I been bluffed here?

Final Pot: 7.00 BB.

[Nick C]

Villain's stats indicate he's a preflop maniac, and a 1.1 aggression factor is pretty aggressive postflop for someone who's as loose as he is, too.

If he usually does his postflop bluffing on the flop, then my guess is that this time he did one of the following things during this hand: (1) flopped a big hand like two pair or a set or a straight and decided to trap, (2) picked up a draw on the turn with his clubs or a random 4 (for an OESD), or (3) spiked a pair of threes.

There's no shame in calling down with ace-high versus a maniac. I don't know if this is the best time to do so or not, but the semi-bluff potential on this board does make it tempting. Also, if Villain just spiked bottom pair on the turn or already had a pair on the flop that he uncharacteristically didn't raise with immediately, then you could have 6 outs.

And if he just has a draw, you could have something more in the range of 34 outs. Against this player, though, you'll probably have to call twice to make use of those 34 outs, since Villain will quite likely fire again unimproved on the river as a bluff.

Anyway, it sounds like this player didn't call the flop and then pop the turn a whole lot, and I think the fold is okay, even though he is a maniac.