ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

[Lloyd]

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Do you agree that with 22xBB, that we are MUCH more likely to see a tighter range than a looser one, and that A9 isnt a reasonable assumption. (possible, but very unlikely, especially with a TAG Hero)

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There's no way I'd call with A9. AT would be close. AJ probably but not definitely. What others do, of course, is simply astounding at times.

[schwza]

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Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

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i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.

[A_PLUS]

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Would you push this at the 25/50 level of a SNG (stack of 1000)? If not, what is it about the current situation that makes you want to push now?

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i wouldn't push that in a sng b/c of prize structure differences. only 2.5x as much for winning vs squeaking into 3rd.

i would push in an identical MTT though, if i believed that villain was raising a lot of hands like in the OP though.

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I think the payout structure argues more for passing on small edges than a SNG would. Once you get to the final table, the payout structure of this MTT is much flatter than 50%/30%/20%.


12 players left
12-11: 1%
10th: 2%
9:3%
8:4%
7:5%
6:6%
5:7.3%
4: 9%
3: 11%
2: 15.7%
1: 27%


I think that is where we are disagreeing. I dont know if we really stopped to think about how flat the payout is now vs a SNG. Also probably why Sirio found his ROI higher when he wasnt so gung-ho for 1st place finishes .

[schwza]

once you're down to 4, the payouts are: 9, 11, 15.7, 27

everyone already has 9, so that's essentially: 0, 2, 6.7, 18

in %'s, that's 0%, 7.5%, 25%, 67.4%

that's not very flat.

[PrayingMantis]

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Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

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2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

[A_PLUS]

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[ QUOTE ]
Last few orbits, we figure to have had between 8-6 players at our table, if CO has been opening 1.5-2x per orbit, we assume he is opening about 25% of his hands.

Of these hands, lets assume he will call with 88+, AJ+, which is 5.8% of hands. So, after he has raised, we will assume he will call 23% of the time (5.8/25).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 comments:

if CO is good and aggressive enough, he might be actually openning with any two from certain positions and spots, and be much tighter in others (that is, he might be openning overall 25% of pots, but have very different % from different positions,). That means that saying that he is raising now with 25% of hands, could be actually putting him on a rather tight range to begin with.

Also, if his raising frequency is more a function of conditions and positions, than of the cards he holds, then even if he does raise here 25% of hands, these could be almost random 25% (in other words - suppose he raises "every forth hand" from this spot, regardless of the cards). And then, of course, he'll have top 5.8% of hands 5.8% of the time, not more (if it's 100% randomized, of course).

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Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

You are 100% correct. In reality I think that using the numbers I did to come up with an estimate of hands he will raise with is pure BS. I just needed to put some numbers on it. I doubt many players fully randomize like you suggested. But probably more to do with position and # of players at the table than anything else.

But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

[PrayingMantis]

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Why is it, you only respond to my posts when they involve an equation?

[/ QUOTE ]

My replying frequency is totally randomized, so it's only a coincidence.



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But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

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Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

[schwza]

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But regardless, the wider you set his initial range, the less you cards matter, so if you would do this with ATs, why would you fold 76s?

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Of course, in light of those comments restealing is even more +EV with any given range.

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not 22.

[locutus2002]

This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

I think Adanthar's comment about folding ATs if the 2K bet was not CO's standard raise is poignant.

If 2K is CO's standard raise then I think ATs in Billyjex situation is an easy push.
Hero is well ahead of CO's range.
Any raise will pot commit hero.
Hero has good equity against the range of hands that call.
(36% against AT++,77++)
Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.



Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).

Opening range: All broadway, pairs down to 5s, aces down to a5. ~300 hands
Calling range: AT++, 77++. ~112 hands.

Take into account hero has AT and CO's # hands change for the same range.

Opening range: ~250
Calling range: ~90

Villain calls with ~36% of his hands.

[A_PLUS]

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This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

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I dont think this is really meant to be a resteal (kind of what I found so interesting in the analysis). I was suprised when I saw how little it mattered what hand SB held here. To start the hand, you think ATs...pretty good hand, he may be stealing, Im probably ahead...a push is good!

Yes, I think a push is +CEV. Probably in the range of 1.5-2.5xBB.

But here is the thing, wether or not this is play is expected to win you chips or not, really doesnt have much to do with the fact that we have ATs.

Our bet (22xBB) is a big preflop bet at this stage. It is pretty much as large as can be considered reasonable into a single 3.5xBB opening raise. So, since our bet is so large, we really limit the number of hands that are willing to call us. I think that we limit it to the point that ATs has negligble value. Without a hand like KQ or A9 in the calling range, we lose little value by changing our cards for 76s.

I disgaree with the push for different reasons, not the CEV of the play. I just found it interesting that our read on the villan was so important here.

If we had 10-12xBB, I think the quality of our hand is very important (we are going to be pricing in calls from KQ, A9, etc). But when we are this deep, we should be looking to make this move with 72 against the right opponent. All hands below AJ are close enough in equity that they arent going to swing this very far in either direction in terms of expectation.

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Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

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We have alot of FE, true. But the hands that beat us (other than low PP) are coming along anyway, which again, drives home the point that ATs is pretty irrelevant.

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It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

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I really disagree here. If we treated all situations like this as CEV = $EV, I would think that it would flow into winning SNG theory, which from what I can gather it doesnt.

With a flatter payout structure, I dont see why treating this like a party SNG from here on out wouldnt maximize my $ won. There are some winning players that will really lag it up early in a SNG, but in a situation like this, where we should assume players arent experts at playing 10xBB stacks, I dont see why we would. (that is assuming hero has a good grasp of the theories talked about on our STT forum)

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I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.

[/ QUOTE ] The only way this could be true is if he only opened with hands that would call a 22xBB reraise, which cant be true.


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Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.


[/ QUOTE ]
True, I was just trying to mock up a range, I dont really think there is any truth to it. I think this range would need to be generated from the type of player we thought he was, and how often this type of player will open from the CO with these stacks.


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I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).


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There is no real point in putting him on exact cards to open here. Many players are (and should be) playing the position and players in the blinds here. If he thinks that they are tight, and has a decent image, it very well may be any two. He cant be thinking that he is playing any hands for value other than the very best, b/c pots at this level dont go to the flop very often.