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#32
08-05-2005, 03:54 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
I realize this isn't the point of your post, but isn't "plays too tightly preflop" and "He hesitates and cold-calls, which a first for the session. Immediate thoughts were 44-88" contradictory ideas? I play pretty tightly preflop. I'm not sure if it could be characterized as too tight, but I don't cold call with 55.. [/ QUOTE ] I thought the exact same thing when I read the original post. The flop play makes it clear that he has a set though. [ QUOTE ] I know you're a respected poster and earn a boatload of $$ playing this game, but this post really seems like bragging to me. Complaining that you didn't fold a hand with potential outs in a big pot.. Is that really that big of a mistake? [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I disagree with everyone that thinks this is close. I think it is a pretty clear fold. 
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#33
08-05-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
I know you're a respected poster and earn a boatload of $$ playing this game, but this post really seems like bragging to me. Complaining that you didn't fold a hand with potential outs in a big pot.. Is that really that big of a mistake? [ QUOTE ] Actually, I disagree with everyone that thinks this is close. I think it is a pretty clear fold. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] This is where that mantra thing that he refers to starts clouding the issue. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I didn't see this as a bragging post. I see it as someone trying to up the level of their game a bit higher and not being satisfied with just ABC, by rote way of playing. Even if it is that close a decision. Nothing wrong with trying to reach a higher standard of play. This is one reason I admire, and sometimes get inspired by, GoT's thinking. Because he seems to always be striving for that next level. Even if it looks trivial. Many would just be satisfied with the level he's at. He's not. I think that's kinda cool. b
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#34
08-05-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
bernie,
Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it?
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#35
08-05-2005, 04:19 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
bernie, Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it? [/ QUOTE ] you guys are missing a crucial piece of information when you say "he cold called an early raise w/ 44-88...i wouldn't do that, therefore its wrong." GoT expressly stated he was raising (opening) alot. therefore, when people see (even very tight people) a guy raising a lot, especially a young kid, they LOWER their playing requirements. in this case, it was pretty clear that he hesitated for a second b/c 44/55/66 is normally a fold for this guy. but when he called its clear he doesn't give GoT credit for much of anything and thinks hes just some agro kid. i dont think those low pairs should be played for a raise in this spot though, but thats the villians error (not a huge one either), not GoT's in any case, i still think the turn is "close" as in tenths of a percent, but lets not quibble. its a fold. -Barron
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#36
08-05-2005, 04:24 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain why the math says you shouldn't call here? It looks like a very easy call to me. [/ QUOTE ] do the math with the probability that villian has a set at 95%. that is the underestimate. using 5% of the straight outs + 4*3/7 (both 5s and 7s when villian has 44) + 2*3/7 (both sevens when villian has 66) + 0*1/7 (hero is dead to 55) we see that its STILL a fold getting about 15:1 + implied odds. best case scenario hero earns about 6 bets on the river from checkraising the bettor and callers assuming they dont fold AND call the c'r...thats alot of iffs. average implied odds here probably add 3 bets maybe 4 or 4.5 to the immediate pot odds. AND!!! this assumes that you FOLD when you hit a straight. if you DO NOT fold when you hit your straight, then you must 100% not call ever. this is why i made 95% villian set probability 100% because the value of those outs is actually negative (reverse implied odds) if you hit and plan to call. its a fold. but again, a fairly close one, especially if you discount reverse implied odds by negating straight outs. -Barron
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#38
08-05-2005, 04:37 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
bernie, Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it? [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter if I think it's playable. It matters if I think the opponent thinks they are playable in that situation. He isn't c/r'ing an unmade hand here so overcards are out. He has a pocket pair. You have to look at his flop play a little. If he had just an overpair, he likely would've bet the flop if checked to, not c/r it. Thereby hoping the 'floorperson' will raise it so it might get overcards out. If he had a higher overpair, he might've 3 bet preflop, or at least bet the flop when checked to as mentioned above. This was also a live game, so the 'way' the guy put in the c/r might also have given GoT an added clue to his hand. Just some possibilities. b
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#40
08-05-2005, 06:50 PM
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Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I flopped top pair and I knew the guy flopped a set when he c/r the flop. [/ QUOTE ] You can tell when someone has a set because they c/r the flop?? [/ QUOTE ] This particular player, yes. No, it's not my default read by any means. Just in that instance. b [/ QUOTE ] Sissy got you again?
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