Curtains: flop decision

[rvg72]

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I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time.

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For what it's worth, I think we have a much greater than 15% chance to be called here. I'd say there is at least a 30% chance he has 10's or higher or possibly a set and he would call here with that almost every time (say 80%). The other 70% he has a pretty good holding but would only call say 20% of the time.

30 x 80% + 70 x 20% = 38%

If those assumptions are correct then it is more like a 35 to 40% chance of getting called here. If this was a $22 or a $33 then it is a completely different story but in a higher limit game this smells like a trap.

rvg