Satellite bubble situation

[threeonefour]

this is a 3$ rebuy event.
24 players left
22 gets 60$
21-1st get entry into 215$ tourney

I am about 18th or 19th in chips.




Table '13821812 54' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pogo (52483 in chips)
Seat 2: Ryder200 (146704 in chips)
Seat 3: thekm (295487 in chips)
Seat 5: u_connection (57965 in chips)
Seat 6: hkjr4 (66694 in chips)
Seat 7: mollysdaddy (138522 in chips)
Seat 8: S D Mikee B (60244 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero (47925 in chips)
Ryder200: posts small blind 3000
thekm: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Kd Kc]
fold
fold
mollysdaddy: calls 6000
fold
HERO: raises 41625 to 47625 and is all-in
fold
fold
fold
mollysdaddy: calls 41625


hows my line?

In a bubble satellite like this and you are in the payout I would take the safe way of just calling. You dont need more chips to win and you are now putting your entire stack at stake.

Call and if an Ace comes, fold to a bet.

[centja1]

unless two of the shorter stacks have about T10k, then I think this is fine.

you have to play to win at least some chips here and you can't raise without committing yourself to the pot, so a push is fine.

i can't argue with a fold here if there are at least a couple of extremely short stacks with Ms of 1 or 2. Since you're in 18th or 19th out of 24, then there have to be players more desperate than you here.

[threeonefour]

if i call he will auto bet the flop. if i call the flop he will auto push the turn.

If he bets out on the flop with no ace, then you are very likely to double up... There is no calling on the flop here. It's either a fold or auto push.

[centja1]

i don't think calling is a very good option here. are we hoping to check this down or get more money in on the turn and the river?

why even call if we're not going to make any money out of this? I understand that we don't need any money, so quite possibly the best course available is to just fold. No sense getting involved if we aren't going to guarantee that we reach the payout.

If we're concerned about losing too much money, i would just fold and take my M of 5 instead of calling and folding and sitting with an M of 4.33.

i also think pushing is fine since we will pick up the blinds and the limper's call the vast majority of the time. and will have the best hand when called the vast majority of the time.

I really don't want to be called, but at least we have that going for us when we do, which is nice.

Pushing is of course a very good option here but I like playing tight and careful when its this close.

This is how I look at it.

1 limper and both the SB and BB have pretty huge stacks. Ok so if we limp and the SB calls that's a pot of 24,000 there.

The flop comes down something like Qxx. If anyone of these stacks picked up something they will probably bet and then we are pushing and getting called by that matter since their odds are too great to pass up on.

So if we push after the flop and win with one callers that would mean a M of 11,91. If we push all in before the flop and one caller we will get an M of 10,90 so we are talking about 1 orbit here which is really valuable. Not that I think 10,90 M wont do it but still. And you have the chance to get out of the flop if an Ace comes.

If this was a MTT tournament and not a satellite I would push. I hope that makes any sense.

[theordinaryboy]

i agree with heaven i think this is a call, altho to be honest pushing isnt bad and folding isnt too bad either.

i think it would be easier to decide if we knew what 19th-24th stack sizes were, when the blinds were going up, where the other short stacks were in relation to the blinds, how aggressive the other shorties had been playing etc etc.

[tipperdog]

Not enough information available. IMO, the key question is, "if I fold here, what is the likelihood of finishing in the top 21?"

To answer that, we really need to know the chipstacks of the other shorties and their positions relative to the blinds. If, for example, 4 other players had <6,000, I would fold KK in a heartbeat here. However, if the shorties' stacks were close to yours (indicating that probably need to win a hand in order to win a seat), then I think your play is fine.

You don't have much fold equity given the chipstack of the limper, but that's not a terrible thing since your hand is so strong. And obviously, if you win this, you have a 99.99% chance of winning a seat.

[threeonefour]

the shorties were about ~25K and a couple 30Ks i think..

obviously there was noone under 10K because nobody would push in that instance.