$5-10 QQ bad river

[toss]

I think given the sparse read on villain he'll be more likely to call with A-high rather than raise it. By bet-folding we can extract value from an A-high and safely fold when we get raised.

[W. Deranged]

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I think given the sparse read on villain he'll be more likely to call with A-high rather than raise it. By bet-folding we can extract value from an A-high and safely fold when we get raised.

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What hands does villain likely have here that contain an A in them and are not beating us?

How often is AK not three-betting pre-flop but raising a missed flop?

AQ I guess is the most likely here.

AJ and AT have us crushed anyway.

What other A's are involved here? A9?

I think villain is much more likely to either have us beat or have some kind of totally busted hand, like 88 or KQ. I think there is much more value in attempting to induce a bluff than hoping to get a call for value. Villain has a hand here that's he's calling with that isn't beating us very rarely in my opinion.

[baronzeus]

I think AK and AQ are both possible and equally likely here, especially for someone who is tight preflop but aggressive postflop.

[W. Deranged]

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I think AK and AQ are both possible and equally likely here, especially for someone who is tight preflop but aggressive postflop.

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I should add that AQ is somewhat unlikely because we hold two Qs in our hand.

Without a read I guess AK is a somewhat realistic possibility but I do think even many tight/passivish preflop players would be three-betting here on the button with that hand.

[baronzeus]

Right,

I said they are equally likely since AK is usually 3bet preflop but there are 16 comboes of AK and only 8 comboes of AQ. There are also 8 comboes of KQ here.

Also, AT and AJ are 8 comboes each. Just my two cents.

[toss]

Maybe he just called with AK since the raise was from UTG.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Right,

I said they are equally likely since AK is usually 3bet preflop but there are 16 comboes of AK and only 8 comboes of AQ. There are also 8 comboes of KQ here.

Also, AT and AJ are 8 comboes each. Just my two cents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it.

My basic thought here is that the vast majority of the time villain either has us beat (like 80% or more) or got even more screwed by the river than we did (holding something like KQ or 99). I think villain will pretty rarely have a hand that will call this river and not raise it.

Another reason to consider why checking is better than bet-calling is an opponent with a T in his hand may check this river behind fearing a check-raise from Js full (not likely, but possible) and save us a bet. Certainly not a huge consideration but it may make a tiny difference.

[baronzeus]

perhaps the river puts him in a bad spot, but 99 is super unlikely IMO.

But I also think A high calls here about 98% of the time hoping for a split. I can't imagine him folding any hand AK-AT but he will probably just call with AT and raise with AJ. So he raises with like 8 hands and calls with about 24 imo....i doubt he calls with KQ unless he has an expert read taht says you ahve 99 or something stupid.


edit: if this guy is really weak tight the easiest option is bet/fold. if he is tricky and a good hand reader you may want to bet/call

[gaming_mouse]

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This is an easy c/fold.
Bet/fold is the second best line.
c/calling is terrible.

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Considering the disagreement, u might want to provide a reason.

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I don't see AK playing the hand like this. I don't see AQ doing it either, but that's possible.

I don't think you'll induce a bluff here. You are almost never ahead if he bets the river when checked to. But I do think worse hands will call a bet.

Given the action, I think it is very unlikely that he has neither a J nor T.

All of the above could change with a read. But I took the comments to mean a tight/passive player, which, rereading the OP, I see was not totally warranted.

gm