Stud/8: The Low Draw Pairs Overcards

AlanBostick · #1 12-12-2002, 01:01 PM

It's the Tuesday night eight-or-better stud game (10-20 w/half-kill to 15-30 for scooping a $150 pot) at the Outpost in San Ramon, California. Three props, one fairly aware player, and me in the game -- it just started, and we're waiting for the customers to show up. Nobody except me and the fairly aware player really understands the game (the props are very good poker players who grasp some stud/8 fundamentals but are prone to play stud/8 trap hands, such as brick pairs or uncoordinated low cards). Ante is $2, low card makes it $5, completion makes it $10,$10-$20 thereafter, $4 drop.

The aware player is dealt a deuce for his doorcard and brings it in for $5. The prop to his left folds an 8. The prop to my right calls, showing a 7. I've got (Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ) Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , with spades completely live. The prop to my left has a jack showing.

I like my spot, and would like to play this hand head-up. I complete the bet, hoping the bring-in will fold. He does not, but calls instead, and so does the other player.

Fourth street gives the bring-in a 6 and a jack to the other player, and I catch an offsuit small card. The boards are now

(x y) 2 6 bringin
(p q) 7 J prop
(Q 9) Q 4 me

The prop will likely drop out for one bet, and I can't trust the aware player to bet his hand. I'm ahead for now -- the low draw's scoop outs are a gutshot draw at best -- and I don't trust the low draw to bet his hand. I bet, he calls, the prop drops out.

Fifth street:

him: (x y) 2 6 K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]
me: (Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ) Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

I now have two good pair, and my opponent is drawing to half a pot with only a few scoop outs at best. I bet, he calls.

Sixth street:
him: (x y) 2 6 K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]
me: (Q 9) Q 4 9 6

My opponent is high on the board, and he bets into me.

I may have the best hand; either he's got some good draws to either half a pot or a scoop, or he had a pair all along and has just outdrawn me. I don't like my spot, but I've got four live scoop outs if he has two pair, and my high hand might be good now.

The river:
him: (x y) 2 6 K K (z)
me: (Q 9) Q 4 9 6 (8)

Again, my opponent bets.

What do you do in this spot?

Vehn · #2 12-12-2002, 05:51 PM

AlanBostick · #3 12-12-2002, 07:29 PM

How big is the pot? Not terribly big; if it's split, we're chopping the antes (less the drop) and somone else's third-street call.

Some of the time he will have two pair -- sometimes from having called me down with a starting pair (not terribly likely from an aware player, but "aware" doesn't necessarily mean "good".), and sometimes from having spiked a pair on the river. In either case my high hand is no good.

Some of the time he will make a low, in which case I'm calling basically to win my bets back.

Occasionally he will make a scooping low, with the kings on the board being a disguise.

In general, I think a call in this spot will often win half a pot, often lose a bet, and only rarely scoop a pot.

Let me ask you this: How often would you bet running kings and a busted low draw in this spot?

Andy B · #4 12-12-2002, 07:54 PM

If you chop, you will be chopping the antes and the one bet, plus all the money you've put in the pot up until that point. There is more than enough in the pot at this point to make it worth a call. If the other guy makes his low, it is worthwhile for him to bet on the chance that you will fold two pair.

It is quite unlikely that opponent has two pair on sixth. If he had a pair below Queens, he probably wouldn't call on third, and with Aces you would have heard from him at some point. If he has a gutshot to go with his two Kings, he has about a 50:50 shot at beating you for high. You're getting, what, 3.5:1? You have an easy call.

OK, you're getting a lot less than 3.5:1 if you consider both sixth and seventh streets. I think that if you're going to fold seventh, you should fold on sixth instead. I still don't fold sixth, because I don't think you're beaten yet.

I might not bet Kings with a busted low in his spot (although I would if I thought I could get you to fold Queens-up often enough to make it a profitable bet), but I would bet Kings with a made low every time, just to give you the chance to fold. He's going to be betting a low too often for you to think about folding.

Vehn · #5 12-12-2002, 07:56 PM

Figuring pot odds/half-pot-odds/outs/opponent's possible outs on the fly is not my strong point. But when it comes down to it I think the possible hands he's betting with that you have a chance for half or all (unlikely) of the pot is compared to the size of it indicates a call. IMO. A crying call, but a call nontheless on 7th. 6th, though, is debatable I think. Alot of this is player dependant. But his most likely hand on 6th is a 4 low, and chances are on 7th he's either "bluffing" with dry kings or a completed low. I think.

Bill Murphy · #6 12-12-2002, 11:05 PM

If you have a call on 6th, it's close, imo, when you factor in the bet on 7th as well. If you called on 6th, calling on 7th is automatic.

$116 in the pot on 6th & $20 to you. You know how to use twodimes... [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] It's likely a crycall, unless you think he has a four flush along w/a four low and the K's OR A2 in the hole. Doubtful he has something like JJ or TT, but ya never know.

This sounds like there may have been a white blackbird sighting on the river. FWIW I call it down, as you say his 2 & 6 weren't spades[and hopefully not clubs]. If he has 35 in the hole you're getting ~3-2 on a ~13-12 shot. Call, but bleech. [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

Ray Zee · #7 12-13-2002, 12:05 AM

everyone is thinking wrongly on this hand. you need to know the cards that make him a scoop versus the cards that you scoop. lets assume he has four low cards with the overpair. he has 14 cards that make him two pair or better. you have 16 less the ones we have seen(one) that make him a busted low without two pair. so you are a slight favorite. the rest of the cards in the deck split the pot. from being the slight favorite subtract the chances he has already two pair or also a straight or flush draw with his low. so really you are a small dog.
but the right play may be to raise on sixth street here. see why. he certainly wont raise back, so you get to see the river for the same amount if he has two pair. and you get paid off the double bet if he dosent improve his kings. and most times he will check if he improves to two pair on the end. and only bet you if he makes a low and you dont care about that. plus if you can sense anything you may get him to pay you off with just two kings on the end, if you are a player that makes alot of crazy plays.

Rick Nebiolo · #8 12-13-2002, 04:41 AM

Alan,

You wrote:"How big is the pot? Not terribly big; if it's split, we're chopping the antes (less the drop) and somone else's third-street call."

The pot is the pot. It doesn’t matter if you put in almost half the money or the poker fairy dropped it in. When it comes to your decision, forget who put in the money up to that point.

”Some of the time he will have two pair -- sometimes from having called me down with a starting pair (not terribly likely from an aware player, but "aware" doesn't necessarily mean "good".), and sometimes from having spiked a pair on the river. In either case my high hand is no good."

Going back to third-street, I would think a lot of half decent players with the $5 bring in will take one off for $5 more with a pair/low card hand. So there is a good chance you were against two pair on sixth. But he also is in position to bet a low draw/big pair on board with impunity knowing you can’t have a low draw and are unlikely to have him beat bad enough on the high side to put on the heat with a raise.

”Some of the time he will make a low, in which case I'm calling basically to win my bets back."

Gee Alan, you base your call on whether or not you have enough equity in the pot. Once your bets are in the pot, they are not your bets, but they belong to the pot (I’m tearing my hair out because this is the way Hero thinks sometimes).

”Occasionally he will make a scooping low, with the kings on the board being a disguise."

Yeah, or just a low and you take high. Or he bets the river knowing he will call your bet if he checks and he almost can’t be raised anyway and that sometimes you lay down two pair when you shouldn’t.

”In general, I think a call in this spot will often win half a pot, often lose a bet, and only rarely scoop a pot.”

If often = often and the first often wins half the pot (I count $135 before seventh street) and the second often loses one bet ($20) it can’t be close. It is a clear call without your scoops factored in if you put it this way.

”Let me ask you this: How often would you bet running kings and a busted low draw in this spot?”

Hopefully often against a player who makes tough folds.

Let me ask you this: How often would a decent player bet kings and a made low on the river when he knows you can’t have a low?

Regards,

Rick

Rick Nebiolo · #9 12-13-2002, 04:50 AM

Andy,

I replied before checking out your answer and was happy to see we hit on some common themes.

One question: You wrote "It is quite unlikely that opponent has two pair on sixth. If he had a pair below Queens, he probably wouldn't call on third"

He already brought it in for $5 and calling cost him only $5 more. He is against an obvious high (Alan's hand) and a seven up. Wouldn't it be right/plausable for him to call with hands such as (5-5) 2 or (3-2) 2. Would you take one off on third with either of these hands?

Regards,

Rick

Rick Nebiolo · #10 12-13-2002, 05:01 AM

Ray,

Two quick questions regarding Alan raising on sixth street.

If Alan's opponent has kings up (this assumes he would call an extra $5 on third with a pair and low board), why wouldn't he raise back? Should he be that afraid of aces up or trips in Alan's hand?

Regards,

Rick