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#1
11-19-2005, 01:27 AM
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tough fold or standard? party 30/60
folded to me on the button, I raise KQo. Small blind unknown 3 bets, bb who is 24/12/2.5 cold calls. I call.
Flop KJ6 rainbow. sb checks, bb bets, I raise. sb folds, bb calls. Turn offsuit 7. check, bet, call. River T and he checkraises me. I fold. 
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#3
11-19-2005, 01:38 AM
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Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop...
That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river??? Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts... I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down. He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely. Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board. Good Luck
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#4
11-19-2005, 02:23 AM
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Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop... That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river??? Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts... I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down. He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely. Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board. Good Luck [/ QUOTE ] You really wan't him to miss his value bet on the river? That seems bad. As for whether or not to pay off the check raise... You need to be good 1 in 11, and although I do agree that he could be bluffing occasionally, I think there are far too many possibilities of hands that beat you. The only reason to call would be if you were willing to take a slight -EV hit to get a better understanding of how your opponent plays his cards. I think you might be good 1 in 20 here (random guess, I could calculate more exactly, but I think this is a fair guess), so if you are willing to pay somewhere around .5 BB, maybe a bit less, to get to know your opponent better, by all means do it. I think this is a fold though.
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#6
11-19-2005, 02:56 AM
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Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
The title of your post says tough fold or standard, I believe that the standard play should be to call this checkraise with your top pair hand getting 11.5-1. I also think this is especially true online. Many people in real life do not have the nerve to checkraise bluff the river so a checkraise on the river in a live game usually spells doom, but people checkraise bluff online all the time. Will your hand be good here more than 8% of the time in the virtual world? I think so, this is an autocall IMO when I'm online with no read on my opponent. By the way, what exactly is your opponent representing here? Looking at his stats, He cannot have AA,KK,JJ becuz he wouldve capped preflop, He cannot have 66,77 becuz he likely wouldve been more aggressive on an earlier street, He also may not be loose enough to have KT or JT nor dumb enough to have TT. So what hand is left here? Answer: AQ, thats basically the hand he is representing in my eyes. Does this hand make sense given the play of the hand? Sure it does, He CC'd preflop cuz its not good enough to cap in his opinion, he bet the flop cuz he might have the best hand and he also has a decent draw, and he check/called the turn cuz he felt he had 7-10 outs to beat your hand....But this is only one hand!! I cant find another hand that makes sense given how this hand played out. If there were many other hands this guy could have that beat my top pair hand I might be more apt to fold, but Im not gonna let one hand stop me from calling. But you know what? all this analysis is really just a waste of time becuz you dont need to think about things that deeply to make the right decision....This is what you should be thinking on the river. "I have top pair, excellent kicker, my opponent checks, I am going to bet for value, he checkraises, this is not a good sign, I am getting 11.5-1 to call, I have no read on my opponent,I know my hand will be good enough more than 8% of the time given the aggessive/tricky nature of many online players, Therefore I call, becuz this call will make me money in the long run and I like money."
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#9
11-19-2005, 07:08 AM
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Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
standard play might look like this: {7, 92, 1}
but I don't think he's check-raising often enough, so I'd try to take advantage of this by folding more: {20, 80, 0} I don't think he's ever folding two pair, so a 3-bet from me would always be two pair or better and never a bluff. If he played better, he could take some tiny advantage of this, but he never will. good luck. eric
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#10
11-19-2005, 07:33 AM
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Re: tough fold or standard? party 30/60
[ QUOTE ]
Please don't take this as a knock on your play, but I think it is a tough situation. Here is the dilemma, call a check raise on the river. You have represented at least top pair...and could very easily have raised with KJ pre flop... That being said...what do you see the majority of the time Head UP on a check raise at the river??? Usually Either Nuts or Bust....Never a I think I just made the best two pair hand or set...Unless set is nuts... I would fold the river, however, since the hand is won or lost already, and I really am not sure where I am at on river, I just check behind and show my hand down. He could have AK...AQ...or KJ...or taking a shot with KT or even JT hoping you fold KJ which is unlikely. Fold River, it is correct more often than not, and next time check river with top pair second best kicker in a connected broadway board. Good Luck [/ QUOTE ] dude, this is an aggresive internet game... he is not "hoping you fold KJ" unless he is on crack... the majority of the time, he has KT/JT here (AQ also possible), so i would fold, but it does put a knot in my stomach to TPGK for one bet on the river on party.
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