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  #1  
Old 12-13-2005, 12:39 AM
Femto Femto is offline
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Default ($215 custer) strange bubble play

I see you making plays like this a lot with hands like J5o and T2o. Blinds aren't going up for another 8 hands. What are you doing?

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC)


Chip Counts:
Button: 4150 Chips
SB: 1805 Chips
BB: 2175 Chips
<font color="red">Hero: 1870 Chips</font>

Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
Hero is All-In, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="blue">SB folds</font>, <font color="green">BB Calls</font>

(2 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips )


(2 players) TURN: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips )


(2 players) RIVER: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 3890 Chips )


Final Pot:3890 Chips
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  #2  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:33 AM
Custer Custer is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind.

Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips.

moses
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  #3  
Old 12-13-2005, 03:02 AM
pineapple888 pineapple888 is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

[ QUOTE ]
I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind.

Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips.

moses

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh... yeah. There's all that. But you have T2o with &gt;5BB on the bubble. Kinda makes those other arguments irrelevant. Just chill and await further developments, no?
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  #4  
Old 12-13-2005, 03:21 AM
Bonafone Bonafone is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

and this would be the reason people call with weak aces and low pp's [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I dont like the push, but its not thaaat bad.
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  #5  
Old 12-13-2005, 07:13 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

It's not horrendous, but I wouldn't push this very often.
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  #6  
Old 12-13-2005, 07:21 AM
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

[ QUOTE ]
I don't remember the actual hand, but there are many factors more important to me than my hand or dry ICM #'s. But let's look at those #'s: With L calling ranges from all opponents, EV Diff. is -1.8%. But SNGPT doesn't take into account position. I'm in the BB next hand, the SB after that. Both -EV positions. Sure, I'll be in those same positions the next 2 hands regardless of whether or not I push here, but the chips I'll likely be losing will have less value than if I add 450 to my stack. How much less value, I'm really not sure, but it doesn't seem like it has to be much to make up for -1.8%. So any extenuating factors would turn this into a push in my mind.

Example of extenuating circumstance: The big stack is a calling machine. He's on my left. This will severely hurt the EV of all future pushes, SB pushes in particular. Not only does this make UTG pushes the best (as it will limit Big Stack's calling range), but when I fold here, I am counting on these +EV pushes to keep me in the tournament. The fact that they are less +EV seems to make pushing here a better play, as I have to find some way to gamble my chips.

moses

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong, SNGPT do take into account that you are BB the next hand. Try moving to Button and see for yourself.
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  #7  
Old 12-13-2005, 01:39 PM
Femto Femto is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

[ QUOTE ]
You are wrong, SNGPT do take into account that you are BB the next hand. Try moving to Button and see for yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your equity goes up when you move to the button not because it is taking into account that you will be not be the BB the next hand but because there is a greater likelihood you will not get called with only two people to act instead of three.
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  #8  
Old 12-13-2005, 02:01 PM
Melchiades Melchiades is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

I push this about 0 out of 10 times.
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  #9  
Old 12-13-2005, 02:10 PM
Bill Poker Bill Poker is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

its not that bad. after this round, you only have ~4 BB left. it is just annoying that some people will call you will Ax (x down to 2)/QJ+/22+, at least at $20+2.[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 12-13-2005, 02:13 PM
Femto Femto is offline
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Default Re: ($215 custer) strange bubble play

[ QUOTE ]
I push this about 0 out of 10 times.

[/ QUOTE ]
love the avatar. i was thinking why the [censored] does he have a plain green background as his avatar? then that giraffe surprised the [censored] out of me.
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