tough fold or standard? party 30/60

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i would fold here. that is KT or JT like every time.

fwiw i value bet this river and hope to get called by AJ, QJ or maybe some type of donktastic hand like Kx, Jx.

[Paluka]

This is a really lousy board to bluff raise the river on, right? This just isn't a spot where I expect people to make that play.

[ggbman]

This fold is standard IMO, but that doesn't mean it's easy to fold TPGK for 1 bet on the river. That said, with the action here, you are ahead about never.

[Lestat]

I've seen this "shania" thing mentioned a couple of times and I'm still not quite sure what it means. Someone referenced a link once, but I never got around to looking it up. I'd like to learn more about it. Can you point me to a link/book on it?



<font color="blue">Even if this was a player who is good enough to consider a river checkraise this is not a good place to do it. </font>

Isn't this a bit of circular reasoning? A player who is good enough to c/r, is good enough to realize this is not a good spot for it, is good enough to c/r!!

I won't argue too hard, because what you're saying makes all the sense in the world, and what I'm saying might not. But it's just my game. When I bet the river last to act, I am doing so because I think the value of my hand warrants a bet. When check/raised, the value of my hand goes down to be sure, but not so much as to cause me to fold without very good reason. That he isn't likely to c/r a worse hand is NOT a good enough reason ESPECIALLY on Party Poker and/or against someone I don't know. I think we've all seen too many weird plays on Party to comfortably lay down an 11 big bet pot for one more.

Calling costs only a bet and he is entitled to it for haning in there and sucking out. But I also want to make that bet the next time, and the time after that. And I want to do so without fear of being check/raised or worrying about whether I might a tight fold the last time, etc.

But please tell me more about this Shania.

[mj2]

I think the pot is big enough to call. I have called in similar situations before thinking for sure he got there and it was a pure bluff. Also (and maybe most important), I don't think you want others taking note that you can be pushed out of a big pot heads up on the river.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the pot is big enough to call. I have called in similar situations before thinking for sure he got there and it was a pure bluff. Also (and maybe most important), I don't think you want others taking note that you can be pushed out of a big pot heads up on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too worried about this. Nobody is paying attention, and I rarely fold anyway. It is probably better for me if they take shots on the river.

[lil feller]

2.5 AF is pretty high. Do you have in information on his c/r %, and how often he wins a showdown after he does this? I'd have to weigh that heavily into the decision here, if it were available. Also, I'm a weak river nittling, but if I can't call a c/r against a 2.5 AF guy, i'm not betting the river.

lf

[mscags]

[ QUOTE ]
This fold is standard IMO, but that doesn't mean it's easy to fold TPGK for 1 bet on the river. That said, with the action here, you are ahead about never.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river and call the check/raise expecting to lose, but win enough times to make calling correct.

To those who say you should fold because your probably beat, this doesn't matter to me. If I bet any hand for value on the river and you raise me, I'm going to call every time unless I can specifically put you on a hand that got there. This is your reward for sucking out. But don't EVER think you're going to mouse me out of an 11 big bet pot with trickery.

[/ QUOTE ]
This quote is basically the attitude I take when Im in an 11BB pot, playing online against an unknown. I will never fold in this situation since I am too convinced that a call will make me money in the long run.

[Paluka]

After reading through the thread, I still think my fold was the better play.