A turn and river dilemma (possibly boring)

[jaxUp]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

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I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

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Wrong on the raise or calling the 3-bet?

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Ok, well this didn't generate as much discussion as I'd hoped, but oh well. I think that the proper play is to call the turn and raise the (non-spade/pairing) river.

I'm going to assume that we are either raising the turn or raising the river. Calling down here is wrong IMO.

If he has Ax with no spade, then it doesn't matter what line we take...3 or 4 bets are going in regardless (4 if he decides to 3bet, 3 if he calls the raise)

If he has Ax with a spade, then by making sure there is a non-spade river we save a bet.

If he has 2 pair, we get 3 bets out of him whether we raise now or on the river, so by waiting to see if the board pairs we only put in 2 bets when we would get sucked out on.

If he has 9x with a spade, we still get the same number of bets when ahead, and put in less when behind.

There are probably more scenarios, but basically what it bois down to is that when we are ahead/tied we have the chance to make the same number of bets regardless of when we raise, but by waiting for the river, we only put in the 3rd bet when one of his outs does not come in. I am open to this being wrong, so please argue.

[sean c]

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Do you think he is free rolling you? Would he ever bet here with less than an ace?

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He would almost always bet a 9/2pair/set here. He never bets less than 2 pair here. There's a very slim chance he bets J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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Well then i think you have to raise. I would call a 3-bet see the river and go from there.

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I think you are wrong. I will elaborate once some more have shared their views/reasoning. Maybe somebody could even do some MATH!!!.

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Wrong on the raise or calling the 3-bet?

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Ok, well this didn't generate as much discussion as I'd hoped, but oh well. I think that the proper play is to call the turn and raise the (non-spade/pairing) river.

I'm going to assume that we are either raising the turn or raising the river. Calling down here is wrong IMO.

If he has Ax with no spade, then it doesn't matter what line we take...3 or 4 bets are going in regardless (4 if he decides to 3bet, 3 if he calls the raise)

If he has Ax with a spade, then by making sure there is a non-spade river we save a bet.

If he has 2 pair, we get 3 bets out of him whether we raise now or on the river, so by waiting to see if the board pairs we only put in 2 bets when we would get sucked out on.

If he has 9x with a spade, we still get the same number of bets when ahead, and put in less when behind.

There are probably more scenarios, but basically what it bois down to is that when we are ahead/tied we have the chance to make the same number of bets regardless of when we raise, but by waiting for the river, we only put in the 3rd bet when one of his outs does not come in. I am open to this being wrong, so please argue.

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Of course your assuming he bets the river also with his 2 pair/9 and only 3-bets you with at least an ace.

[jaxUp]

Yes, this opponent will always lead the river if I call, and will donk a spade, not allowing me to check behind. Also, I included in OP that he would not likely 3bet 2 pair, so I don't think he's ever 3-betting less than a straight here.

[sean c]

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Yes, this opponent will always lead the river if I call

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If this is the case then calling and waiting is probably better. I just have a hard time getting my arms around not raising being correct when i have the nuts but i see what you are getting at. At any point and time more than 3 bets go in on the turn/river you are at best chopping.

[jaxUp]

[quote At any point and time more than 3 bets go in on the turn/river you are at best chopping.

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Yeah, but I have to call because of the likelihood of an A.

[bozlax]

Haven't read anything beyond the OP, and I barely got through that.

Based on your read (especially this part: "I have seen him bet with only a draw once or twice, but he doesn't do it often.") I don't think Villan hit a flush, here. He may be freerolling you with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but it's unlikely. So, at worst you're splitting.

Raising the turn doesn't gain you anything. A 3-bet could mean what you already know, a call could as well. And, if he's playing two-pair or an unlikely set, you don't want to take away his initiative. Either way, he's going to see the river, and "chargining him to draw" doesn't work, as he's probably getting half of his own money, anyway. So, just call the turn. On the river:

If it's a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], call or check behind.
If it pairs the board, call or check behind.
Anything else, raise/call or bet/call.

[bozlax]

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I just have a hard time getting my arms around not raising being correct when i have the nuts...

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Hero doesn't have the nuts. There are 45 hand combinations that beat him on the turn.

[jaxUp]

Yeah, good analysis boz. I thought the same thing. The only thing I don't agree with is:

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If it pairs the board, check behind.


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This guy is too dumb to c/r. I have never seen him c/r and he has had some good hands. he always leads with them. If he checks to me I am betting for value.

[Redd]

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unlikely to donk on a coordinated board without something good

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This is the crux of the matter IMO. What worse hand can you expect him to have here? He's got to be pretty dumb to donk anything less than a straight. I call/call.

[Greg J]

I really like the idea of calling this turn, and raising/calling or betting/calling a friendly river card (non spade that does not pair the board). Otherwise I still call down no matter what comes.