AQ top pair of Q, s/f draws on turn

[AKQJ10]

This seems like it should be a fairly elementary case, but I never really know how to play these. Comments appreciated on all streets, especially the turn of course:

Stage #237240136: Holdem No Limit $0.10 - 2005-11-30 20:37:38 (ET)
Table: STEINWAY ST (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 6 - LEVI PACK ($15.05 in chips)
Seat 8 - MOOKAMOK ($5.10 in chips)
Seat 1 - Villain ($10.90 in chips)
Seat 2 - Hero ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 4 - RICKCO ($23.80 in chips)
MOOKAMOK - Posts small blind $0.10
Villain - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qh Ah]
Hero - Raises $1 to $1
RICKCO - Folds
LEVI PACK - Folds
MOOKAMOK - Folds
Villain - Calls $0.75


*** FLOP ($1.10) *** [Qs 9c 7c]
Villain - Bets $0.25
Hero - Raises $2.75 to $2.75
Villain - Calls $2.50
*** TURN ($7.60) *** [Qs 9c 7c] [8c]
Villain - Checks
Hero - ???

Thanks in advance.

[beavens]

so a PSB puts you allin?

seems like youre WA/WB here.

tough.

[Woolygimp]

All in, and then say in chat, "If you call i'm going to rape your dog."

[AKQJ10]

My reasoning was that, as many draws as the turn completes, the ones it opens on the river are more dangerous. In other words, it's more likely Villain has one club than two clubs; it's more likely she has a bare ten or six than JT, T6, or 65. So I pushed.

(Incidentally, my short stack was an intentional effort to play according to Ed Miller's suggestions in GSiH.)

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
(Incidentally, my short stack was an intentional effort to play according to Ed Miller's suggestions in GSiH.)

[/ QUOTE ]

shouldnt this make our decisions EASIER? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[PuertoKid]

Take my advice with a grain of salt. I have plenty of deficiencies in my own game. Nevertheless, I'll take a stab at this.

Preflop: fine

Flop: Pot is $2.10 before villan bets. Villan makes a very small bet. Many times at these levels a small bet like this is meant to be a blocking bet. That is, he has a little something or he has a draw and he wants to see the next card cheap. Your hand is likely good. The flush draw is the obvious draw, but weak players at this level will draw to the str8 here or even try to see the river cheaply with a weak Q. You must raise for value and information. Raising to 3/4 the pot may be a better option. If a scare card hits on the turn, you are oop and in a tough situation. Simply checking is weak and will invite him to bluff at you. But a proper bet by you would be at least 1/2 the pot. By betting about 1.75 you are giving him incorrect odds to call to the draw, but you are keeping the pot more manageable on the turn and it is easier to fire out a 1/2-ish pot bet on the turn in the face of a scare card. If you are raised on the turn you can fold and it will have cost you less. If you are called you can check the river and fold/call a bet depending on how big it is in relation to the pot and the odds that you have him beat, etc.

If a non scare card hits, your bet on the turn should be as big as you think he will call. Many people at this level will still make a big call on the turn trying to hit that same draw.

Again, better players may very likely give you a better analysis.

I'd be interested in hearing any disagreements with this line...

[AKQJ10]

Yeah, no kidding.... I figure I have enough tough decisions as it is with a medium stack!

Incidentally, Absolute only lets me buy in for 40xBB (I think Party's the same, no?) so I can't really play a small stack as Ed defines it until losing a few hands.

This hand is a perfect example -- with a 20xBB stack, I'm already all-in and am giving those draws bad implied odds. As Ed says, implied odds mean nothing when you have nothing for them to win. (Or Janis Joplin: " Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose....")

[AKQJ10]

Thanks for the reply. I gain a lot from the give and take of hand discussion, so please don't take my rebuttals as a sign of ingratitude or even really disagreement.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Pot is $2.10 before villan bets. Villan makes a very small bet. Many times at these levels a small bet like this is meant to be a blocking bet. That is, he has a little something or he has a draw and he wants to see the next card cheap. Your hand is likely good.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this analysis, and I think it figured subconsciously into my vigorous flop bet.

[ QUOTE ]
The flush draw is the obvious draw, but weak players at this level will draw to the str8 here or even try to see the river cheaply with a weak Q. You must raise for value and information. Raising to 3/4 the pot may be a better option. If a scare card hits on the turn, you are oop and in a tough situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I was in position (UTG versus the BB). She's bet $.25 so the pot is $2.35; 3/4 is about $1.80. If I raise by $1.50 to $1.75, she's faced with calling $1.50 to win $4.10, which is not quite 3:1 expressed pot odds. I have to play the turn extremely well for her not to get correct odds to draw to a flush or OESD.

My huge raise was in part intended to charge draws the maximum they'd pay without shutting them out of the pot, in order to decrease the implied odds. It seems like a smaller raise makes my turn decision tougher, not easier, if a scare card hits.

[ QUOTE ]
Simply checking is weak and will invite him to bluff at you. But a proper bet by you would be at least 1/2 the pot. By betting about 1.75 you are giving him incorrect odds to call to the draw, but you are keeping the pot more manageable on the turn and it is easier to fire out a 1/2-ish pot bet on the turn in the face of a scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused by this analysis. I can't check the flop; I'm facing a $0.25 bet. We seem to agree that calling the flop would be foolish.


[ QUOTE ]
If you are raised on the turn you can fold and it will have cost you less.

[/ QUOTE ]

By that point I'm facing some huge pot odds for the rest of my (now puny) stack. If I raise by $1.50 to $1.75 on the flop, the pot is now $5.60. Betting half on the turn that is $2.75; I now have (by memory) around $4.50 left. That's tough to fold getting 3:1 on calling the turn raise, even though I know it's likely that one of the draws has come in.

So I have to keep down the implied odds I lay. I can do this one of two ways. I chose to do so by exaggerating my turn bet. Perhaps a better player cuts down those odds by making a better read or by automatically (?) folding to a raise on the turn. Still, it seems like Villain has gotten about 4:1 on her strong draw if I fold to the turn raise. So I've not cut down the implied odds, and I've left myself vulnerable to pure bluffs!


[ QUOTE ]
If you are called you can check the river and fold/call a bet depending on how big it is in relation to the pot and the odds that you have him beat, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

See above re: position.

[ QUOTE ]
If a non scare card hits, your bet on the turn should be as big as you think he will call. Many people at this level will still make a big call on the turn trying to hit that same draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - but that would have made the hand a lot easier to play correctly! Alas, the eight of clubs was the premier scare card in the deck at that point.

Incidentally I pushed, Villain called and showed K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[AKQJ10]

After a night's reflection, I think my best line is to mix up my play here. There aren't many Villain hands that fit this betting pattern that would make giving a free card dangerous -- maybe A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] freeroll, or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or something like that. OTOH, allowing him to check knowing that I'll push is problematic -- occasionally I should punish him by checking behind. And of course, always checking then folding to a river bet is bad -- I'll always get bluffed off a hand. But there are so few plausible hands for him to stay in with that DIDN'T come in by the turn that I should mostly fold to a big river bet.

So on turn:

1/2 time bet pot (=push)
1/3 time check behind
1/6 time bet 1/2 pot (mostly fold if raised)

Bet at least the size of the pot because by Villain cheking, he has shown weakness and possibly thinks he may only have the second best hand. If I were in that situation, this is what I would do.