5/10 LO8 -- cap turn with nut straight?

[jb9]

I'm doing this from memory, but I think I got all the important details right... Any comments appreciated.


Pacific 5/10 O/8, 8 handed, loose, somewhat aggressive table

UTG is a good player. Hasn't done anything stupid.

UTG+1 plays like a hold 'em player (doesn't worry about being quartered, thinks any set is a great hand)

BB is shortstacked (2 big bets) and probably on tilt

I'm in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and have been playing fairly straightforwardly.

UTG, UTG+1, and MP limp, MP+1 folds, I limp, button folds, SB folds, BB raises, everyone calls.

Flop is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Everyone checks, I bet, BB raises (he's allin now), UTG re-raises, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, I call.

Turn is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, I raise, UTG 3 bets, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, I cap?

This is really where I'm unsure. I'm pretty certain when UTG 3 bets that he has at least KJ, probably AKJ, and possibly A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]KJx[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I think UTG+1 has something, but it could be just a set or even 2 pair.

So, unless a non-heart K or J hits the river and UTG doesn't have an Ace, I think my best case scenario is a split with UTG. If the board pairs or a heart comes on the river, things don't look so good for me.

But if UTG+1 is playing a set/flush draw, I want him to put in as much money as possible on the turn, right?

Do you cap the turn here or wait for a safe river card and hope UTG+1 keeps putting money in when UTG and you bet and raise?

[xorbie]

Am I the only one that raises this PF 100% of the time?

[xorbie]

As to capping, I think it's an easy cap. You lose .2BB if you do cap and UTG is freerolling (which he doesn't have to be) and if UTG+1 folds. But if UTG+1 calls, which he obviously will, you gain about .8*.5BB or about .4BB (if we give UTG+1 about 20% equity, say with a set).

[Burdzthewurd]

Xorbie - This is a very nice hand, but you have an easily counterfeitable low. You'd like this hand HU, but you're better off hitting a high flop and scooping with a big straight or full house. Raising in LP is ok, but I wouldn't jump out of my seat to pump this up UTG unless the table was very tight.

[gergery]

Preflop I’d have limped the first time and reraised the second time around, since by that point everyone is staying and making the pot a giant monster favors you since your equity is certainly better than fair share.

I think capping correct on the turn.

Assume UTG has KJ for sure. On top of that, if they have both a flushdraw, a higher straightdraw (AKJ) and a set between the two of them, then your cap is a tiny mistake. If UTG can have KJ with no redraws and the other guy has just the flushddraw or the set then you have a significant EV advantage to betting.

If the board pairs or a heart comes are you going to fold? In this massive pot, I don’t know if that’s correct. So you are risking 1 bet now and 1 on the river to win what is almost certainly .5 bet, maybe another .5 bet. So let’s say you’re risking 2 bets to win 1, meaning you need to win 66% of the time or more to be profitable. Or your opponent needs to win 33% of the time, which is ~15 outs. The flushdraw AND set would be ~17 outs, so if UTG showed you KJh and other guy showed the set then you would not want to cap. But that is rare enough and a small enough mistake that I would cap here.

-g

[jb9]

[ QUOTE ]
If the board pairs or a heart comes are you going to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have a real hard time folding for one bet in this pot. Not sure of the math, but for sanity's sake I would have to call one bet.

I would probably fold to a bet and raise. (But if I did and UTG took the pot with the straight, I would have to stop playing for the day...)

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, I raise, UTG 3 bets, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, I cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

JB - No. Just call.

[ QUOTE ]
But if UTG+1 is playing a set/flush draw, I want him to put in as much money as possible on the turn, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You have to put money in the pot too. UTG+1 and you are both behind UTG, if you're sure UTG has a heart flush draw. UTG+1 is a bigger underdog than you if all he has is a set, but you're an underdog too, if you're sure UTG has the heart flush draw.

If UTG+1 has both the heart flush draw and a set, then UTG+1 is ahead of both UTG and you. If UTG doesn't also have an ace, then you're ahead of UTG, but still an underdog.

Depends on their exact cards. If we give them both hearts and if UTG doesn't also have an ace, then you're ahead of them both, but barely. If we give UTG+1 top two pair instead of a set, and if we give them both maximum hearts, then you're ahead by more.

[ QUOTE ]
But if UTG+1 is playing a set/flush draw, I want him to put in as much money as possible on the turn, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily, because you have to put money in the pot too. If UTG doesn't have any hearts and if UTG+1 has two hearts and a set, then UTG+1 is the favorite.

It really depends on the exact cards. You're behind unless UTG+1 doesn't have a set or unless both UTG and UTG+1 have lots of hearts between the two of them. (You're behind even more if we give UTG+1 the straight too).

Your re-draw to the ace high straight is not as good as your combined opponents draws or re-draws to a boat or heart flush, assuming at least one of them also has the king high straight.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you cap the turn here or wait for a safe river card and hope UTG+1 keeps putting money in when UTG and you bet and raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

With the information you've provided, I think there's a greater chance that you're behind than that you're ahead. But since we don't know the cards involved for certain, there's some doubt about that.

I think the nail in the coffin is that maybe UTG+1 has the straight too, and if so, or if one of them can make an ace high straight with a king or a jack too, you're definitely an underdog.

Buzz

[jb9]

[ QUOTE ]
Pacific 5/10 O/8, 8 handed, loose, somewhat aggressive table

UTG is a good player. Hasn't done anything stupid.

UTG+1 plays like a hold 'em player (doesn't worry about being quartered, thinks any set is a great hand)

BB is shortstacked (2 big bets) and probably on tilt

I'm in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and have been playing fairly straightforwardly.

UTG, UTG+1, and MP limp, MP+1 folds, I limp, button folds, SB folds, BB raises, everyone calls.

Flop is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Everyone checks, I bet, BB raises (he's allin now), UTG re-raises, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, I call.

Turn is 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP calls, I raise, UTG 3 bets, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, I cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the comments so far -- all very helpful. I'm fairly new to LO/8 and am still trying to get a good sense for how to think about these "I'm probably splitting or losing even though I have the nuts" situations.

I did cap the turn and UTG and UTG+1 called.

River is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I check.

Does anyone bet in this spot to try to fold a small flush? It wouldn't have to work too often to be right.

[Zeatrix]

It's pacific, I'd say cap [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (if their O8 is anything close to their HE in terms of {good players/bad players})

[benwood]

I must be missing something. What about capping the FLOP? Looks right to me.