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#11
08-21-2005, 11:45 PM
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Re: Hmmm AJo hand
Nice analysis.
I don't want to suggest anything in my play, but you hit on a lot of the points. 1) When he calls the turn you can get rid of hands like 77. 2) There is a good chance that I have him crushed on the flop. If he has something like KK he will just check behind on the turn and call one on the river, so I lose value by not donking out. He will obviously call me down with KK when I bet out since there is a good chance that I'm bluffing or semi-bluffing. 3) There is also a good chance that he has an ace and is waiting until the river to raise. I feel like he will call (or raise) on the river far more often then he will fold, but I'm still not sure if betting the river is the right play. Obviously it is when he has a big underpair, but it might not when he holds an ace. 4) The river card is not the best in the world for my hand when I'm good, and it is great for me when I'm behind. There is some non-insignificant chance that I made trips on the end and that could change the river play quite a bit here. Brad Edit - I would probably play a flush draw very fast on this flop (to try and fold out QQ or something). I don't know if the villian would know that, but my flop check-coldcall will usually be an ace. Of course it would sometimes be a flush draw as well since I am very tough to read when I play the way I was today. 
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#13
08-22-2005, 12:54 AM
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Re: Hmmm AJo hand
[ QUOTE ]
So do you need to pay off a raise here? Unless he knows you know he knows you...he...know...uh, do you think he's capable of raising with KK/AT here? [/ QUOTE ] If Button puts Shill on crapass 2pair, he got counterfeited on the river, so bet/folding is definitely not optimal.
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#14
08-22-2005, 01:40 AM
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Re: Hmmm AJo hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So do you need to pay off a raise here? Unless he knows you know he knows you...he...know...uh, do you think he's capable of raising with KK/AT here? [/ QUOTE ] If Button puts Shill on crapass 2pair, he got counterfeited on the river, so bet/folding is definitely not optimal. [/ QUOTE ] Would the Button put Shill on 2p though? This would require a cool-call, then a cold-call with A2. And there's only 2 combinations of A2s left, or 1 if Villain has a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ace.
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#15
08-22-2005, 02:06 AM
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Re: Hmmm AJo hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So do you need to pay off a raise here? Unless he knows you know he knows you...he...know...uh, do you think he's capable of raising with KK/AT here? [/ QUOTE ] If Button puts Shill on crapass 2pair, he got counterfeited on the river, so bet/folding is definitely not optimal. [/ QUOTE ] Would the Button put Shill on 2p though? This would require a cool-call, then a cold-call with A2. And there's only 2 combinations of A2s left, or 1 if Villain has a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ace. [/ QUOTE ] I would expect Button to notice that Shill might know that he's raising light to isolate this CO limper, so he would 3bet with many hands, surely with big aces/PPs. When he calls 2 preflop and on the flop, I think a very likely hand for Shill here is Ax or TP/GK, since he would like to "mask" the strength of his hand by just calling and letting the other 2 players to duke it out. As Shill pointed out, he's been playing pretty tight, and Button is surely going to notice this, so as long as Shill is not folding, he's probably worried, which might explain why he took so long to call the turn.
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#16
08-22-2005, 02:28 AM
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Re: Hmmm AJo hand
[ QUOTE ]
The scene: 2+2 table just a few minutes ago The suspects: Good players and Saint_D [/ QUOTE ] FYP. edit: Or so I thought. I don't have this hand in my history. Wasn't this Pif's table? You forgot to mention the texture of the table. A lot of A-high hands taking pots. People raising to protect 2nd pair GK. Some tricky plays mixed in with about the right frequency. -D
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