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  #11  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:07 PM
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking back, I think

59 - Clear call for me
60 - Probably should've folded
85 - Probably should've folded but closer IMO
92 - Very close

Eh, I felt like seeing more flops in this session [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd fold 56o getting 9:1 for 1/4 of a BB? The only time I'd do this is if BB is very aggressive preflop.
Folding 56o again for 11:1 in a bigger pot is also bad IMO.


And 57s given 7:1 is a must call. I call these in HU blind steal situations in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these unsuited low connectors are closer to folds than you think.
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  #12  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:09 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

Hmm you are essentially 5.7:1 here. I'd probably still call but that makes it closer. You essentially have a raiser and 2 callers so far, and you can count on BB calling, so that's 4 people total, and seeing a 5 way flop with 57s can't be bad.
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  #13  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:10 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking back, I think

59 - Clear call for me
60 - Probably should've folded
85 - Probably should've folded but closer IMO
92 - Very close

Eh, I felt like seeing more flops in this session [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd fold 56o getting 9:1 for 1/4 of a BB? The only time I'd do this is if BB is very aggressive preflop.
Folding 56o again for 11:1 in a bigger pot is also bad IMO.


And 57s given 7:1 is a must call. I call these in HU blind steal situations in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these unsuited low connectors are closer to folds than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna do a little pokerstove experiment because I'm bored and I'll get back to you. Getting 11:1 in the second hand I couldn't dream of folding this.
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  #14  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:16 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

Odds (from FTR)

flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card 26.939%
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing a hole card AND pairing on the board 2.02%
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%
flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card 1.347%
flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other 0.092%
flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards 0.01%
flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 1.306%
flopping an 8 out straight draw* 10.449%

You flop a good straight draw almost 12% of the time and this alone makes it a good call getting 9:1 and especially 11:1.

Add in 2% to flop 2 pair, 1.4% to flop trips, .1% to flop FH/quads, and these are easy calls.

And of course in a huge pot you should call with one pair to try to hit your 5 outer too.
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  #15  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:24 PM
Absolution Absolution is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

2 small pair situations can get dicey I find. It depends on the action of course, but 5 outs is generous.
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  #16  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:31 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

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2 small pair situations can get dicey I find. It depends on the action of course, but 5 outs is generous.

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I agree. But you're even given odds to draw to 3 or 4 outs here. Sure, there are redraws against you, but you'd only be behind a higher 2 pair or a set if you hit, especially in the hand that was raised preflop. Regardless, just the odds of flopping a good draw, and the fact that given a certain typical range your equity is in excess of 17% in these situations, you need to call.
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  #17  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:32 PM
tiltaholic tiltaholic is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking back, I think

59 - Clear call for me
60 - Probably should've folded
85 - Probably should've folded but closer IMO
92 - Very close

Eh, I felt like seeing more flops in this session [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd fold 56o getting 9:1 for 1/4 of a BB? The only time I'd do this is if BB is very aggressive preflop.
Folding 56o again for 11:1 in a bigger pot is also bad IMO.


And 57s given 7:1 is a must call. I call these in HU blind steal situations in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

HU blind steals are a whole other situation, are they not? seriously 65o? we're talking about needing a perfect flop here.
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  #18  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:36 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

You flop a monster 1 in 20 times and you flop a very good draw 1 in 10 times. So about 1 in 6 times you will flop a hand worth playing till the river. 1 in 6 is hardly a "perfect flop".

You are all too tight preflop [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


My VPIP is 19.5 FYI. PFR is 11.5.
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  #19  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:46 PM
tiltaholic tiltaholic is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

[ QUOTE ]
You flop a monster 1 in 20 times and you flop a very good draw 1 in 10 times. So about 1 in 6 times you will flop a hand worth playing till the river. 1 in 6 is hardly a "perfect flop".

You are all too tight preflop [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


My VPIP is 19.5 FYI. PFR is 11.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'm at 20/12 or thereabouts as well.

I have a hard time believing that I'm flopping a monster hand or a strong draw 15% of the time. At first glance I think you are adding overlapping probabilities to some extent. But I won't say you are wrong, since I don't know. Clearly, if 15% is about right, then 7:1 is plenty enough.
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  #20  
Old 08-08-2005, 04:47 PM
adsman adsman is offline
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Default Re: Review: Micropost Blind Defense: hands 59, 60, 85, 92

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking back, I think

59 - Clear call for me
60 - Probably should've folded
85 - Probably should've folded but closer IMO
92 - Very close

Eh, I felt like seeing more flops in this session [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think about hands 42 and 69 then? Hand 42, with K7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the sb and one preflop limper, this is close between a call and a raise. Hand 69, you have 88, once again in the sb and once again with one preflop limper, (the same limper as the previous example I might add), I think you can pop this for a raise as well. Unless you have specific reads on both MP1 and the BB.

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42 is probably a complete before a raise. I probably should've completed here but I usually like at least one more limper before I complete with a Kxs hand (with x < 9). Hand 69 should've probably been a pre-flop raise but I'm a position-whore.

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I'm not writing this to be pedantic but because the point of this exercise is to identify leaks, right? So saying that, based on what you said above concerning hand 42, why did you complete in the sb with hand 7?
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