Hmmm Flush Draw hand

[Shillx]

I did call here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] This is a pretty easy raise IMO and I dropped the ball here.

The river was the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and it went check-check. He tabled 98 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and took the pot. As for Catt's reply...calling the turn and raising the river is an awesome idea as long as you know that he will bet again on the end with hands like 77 and 98s. The problem is that they will almost always check/call since hands like AQ and AJ aren't going to payoff given the action. If he did bet again, it would either be a stone bluff which AJ could beat or it would be a big hand like a full house or trips.

As an aside, I would just call on this turn card with a hand like AK. If he is betting middle pair, I don't want him to fold to a raise and I will get tons of action on the river from a worse king if that he what he has (so it isn't like I'm missing value in those spots). In a HU pot you can afford to take these lines with big hands since you don't have to worry as much about getting outdrawn. So my verdict is to just call here with a big hand (pop the river) and raise with a draw or a weak hand.

As another aside, if I raised and got 3-bet I would consider folding but then call. If I do end up making the flush, I would just call his river bet.

Brad

[btspider]

i think this is a really interesting spot. if he could hold (and fold) 98s here, i'd raise.

his flop play is not a pot building move by a set, but a protection move by a vulnerable hand. so we're likely looking at KQs/KJs type hands or 98s/T8s/87s type hands that could cold-call PF.

the turn bet sure looks like a free card prevention bet.. likely with the intent to bet-fold. a K won't fold, but will have a hard time 3-betting us. the pot is big, lets win it.

the only thing that gets me is the flop was rainbow uncoordinated.. the turn bet kinda surprises me.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
As another aside, if I raised and got 3-bet I would consider folding but then call. If I do end up making the flush, I would just call his river bet.

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i edited my above post about 5 times trying to account for this. would a set actually check-raise the flop? the turn bet is quite peculiar given the rainbow K high flop. you are representing top pair or better pretty much.. so a turn bet-3bet would be a powerhouse move here. my own conclusion was also to grudgingly call. if i caught the flush on the river, i'd only call his bet figuring him for 88/33 or possibly K8s more than 33% of the time.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this is a really interesting spot. if he could hold (and fold) 98s here, i'd raise.

his flop play is not a pot building move by a set, but a protection move by a vulnerable hand. so we're likely looking at KQs/KJs type hands or 98s/T8s/87s type hands that could cold-call PF.

the turn bet sure looks like a free card prevention bet.. likely with the intent to bet-fold. a K won't fold, but will have a hard time 3-betting us. the pot is big, lets win it.

the only thing that gets me is the flop was rainbow uncoordinated.. the turn bet kinda surprises me.

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My thoughts exactly after I actually read the flop action. He has either a middle pair or a K. A middle pair might fold to a raise, he doesn't have AK given PF action, and KQ/KJ are not easy 3-bets for him to make.

[Catt]

Lost my internet connection there for a bit.

[ QUOTE ]
As for Catt's reply...calling the turn and raising the river is an awesome idea as long as you know that he will bet again on the end with hands like 77 and 98s. The problem is that they will almost always check/call since hands like AQ and AJ aren't going to payoff given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised that someone playing seriously at 4/8 in Vegas and decked out in Full Tilt gear is checking this river. It's the perfect opportunity for him to make a "big laydown."

FWIW, I don't think a turn raise folds him (or many thinking players, for that matter). The flop 3bet followed by the turn raise might pull it off, but I'm skeptical (though this is hopeless, IMHO, without the flop 3-bet). It just feels too much like you're trying hard to fold him out with the aggression as opposed to trying to collect bets with a strong hand like trip Ks. I would think he probably calls the raise and checks the river, in which case you're now committing your 3rd bet on a bluff or checking the river with A-high. If I'm willing to put in 3 bets on a bluff, I'd rather do it by calling the turn and raising the river with smoke since I think our FE is much higher with this line. But Villain foiled the plan by wisely checking the river.

I still think you probably weren't drinking enough.

Edit: This approach may not work in a B&M game. I generally don't play live so this may be an internet thing. Eventually I'll convince my wife to let me out of the house and I might try to hook up with Brad to go play Lucky Chances since I'm just over the hills from him.

[SCfuji]

pussy

[GrunchCan]

Clearly folding is out of the question.
A guy this aggressive doesnt have a K when he leads. He'd CR instead. So we have 13 outs, giving us ~25% equity. I see no FE here, and so no reason to raise. I call.

[toss]

Shillx pointed out that there would be boatloads of FE if villain doesn't have a K. Its feasible that villain doesn't have a K and something like a pocket pair instead.

[Buckmulligan]

Bullshit... AFter looking at this again, our fold equity is non existant, except in the case that we have a villain who is nearly drawing dead with a dry ace or similar draw, in which case we have more equity trying to induce a bet on the river.

[GrunchCan]

I see that. I posted blind (can't bring myself to saying the other word for that). But I don't agree that we have any FE against this opponent. Shill didnt describe him as weak-tight. I envision someone very much like a 2+2er.