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  #11  
Old 07-01-2005, 01:37 PM
LuvDemNutz LuvDemNutz is offline
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Default Results and thoughts

Well most of the responses echoed my thought process pretty well.


My thoughts:

1) I did not fear QQ-AA as I would generally expect those hands to reraise trying to get more out of me rather than pushing. JJ was a minor concern but I don't know if JJ pushes here given my image (tight). The only hand that really made sense to do this was AK.

2) Given that I read my opponent for AK I am a 57:43 favorite. Not great, but not terrible. I am getting 7700:5350 to get the rest of my money in as a favorite.

3)I'm paying the blinds the next two hands and should I go card dead for the next 12 hands I am down close to 3000 chips and in serious trouble.

4)I play to win, not come in 36th and net a $12 profit.

I called.

My opponent showed AK - unfortunately he turned an A and that was all she wrote.
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  #12  
Old 07-01-2005, 01:52 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Results and thoughts

By the way, I believe QQ-KK would play this exactly as specified, a smaller raise invites other people into the pot, I would rather take down the pot now or fight it out with one person. AA may or may not play it that way. The real key is how much of a rock your opponent is and how much of a rock you appear to be. If your opponent is a rock, I would expect JJ-AA, or AK. Even if he plays AA only 1/2 the time this way, then AK only occurs 43% of the time in this group. Even if you assumed it was half a chance to be AK, half a chance overpair, then your odds of winning are only .38 --- the pot is laying you odds of 1.44:1, less than the 1.63:1 you would need. It's a very close call, but I would lay it down.

If he is not real tight, then you would want to expand the list of cards he would play here. Then the call would be correct.
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  #13  
Old 07-01-2005, 01:52 PM
Greeksquared Greeksquared is offline
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Default Re: Results and thoughts

I don't see why you aren't afraid of aces. You should be very afraid of AA-JJ. It just happened he had AK. I would push all 5 hands here. A raise to 3-4K by him does not really accomplish anything except define his hand a bit more. Against normal opponents this call will be -EV.
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  #14  
Old 07-01-2005, 01:54 PM
kuro kuro is offline
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Default Re: TT - bubblicious

You're 9 handed right? So there's 2450 in the pot after your opening raise (remember there are antes) so bb is getting 3.27:1 preflop to call. You need to raise enough so that villain's not getting such good odds to call especially if he's deep stacked. But if you raise much more you're pot committed anyway, so you might as well just push preflop. 2 all ins over an under the gun raise at the bubble is pretty uncommon and I don't think you need to change how you play for fear of that.
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  #15  
Old 07-01-2005, 02:03 PM
LuvDemNutz LuvDemNutz is offline
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Default Re: TT - bubblicious

[ QUOTE ]
He probably would have gone to 3600 or something like that with AA or KK trying to get you to call. The all in suggests he really doesn't want a call but wouldn't feel too bad about it if he got one. I think you're on a coin-flip here 90% of the time, and facing an overpair the other 10%, and the pot is paying you pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this 100%.

As far as this call being -EV, the EV of this call/fold is a very difficult thing to determine. It isn't as simple as saying that in the long run folding results in me in having more chips on average. You have to consider the specific situational factors of the tournament (blind sizes, antes, avg stacks, players left, payout structure, etc) in order to say that this call is or isn't +EV.
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  #16  
Old 07-01-2005, 02:07 PM
LuvDemNutz LuvDemNutz is offline
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Default Re: Results and thoughts

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I believe QQ-KK would play this exactly as specified, a smaller raise invites other people into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot make this assumption without knowing the stack sizes of the other players and/or how the table was playing up to that point (sheepishly tight).

A reraise (say to 2500 or 3000) would've committed just about anyone at the table if they wanted to play the hand. (stack sizes ranged from 1500 - 12000 with most in the 2000-5000 range) If I am holding QQ-AA I am ok with that.
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  #17  
Old 07-01-2005, 02:14 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Results and thoughts

The point is... you are ok with that. He may not be. I am just saying some people are going to reraise all-in with KK,QQ,JJ here --- I certainly would. So you have to figure, what is the percentage of time that somebody else would play AA-JJ here by raising all-in... I submit to you that it is much greater than zero, which is what you assumed when you said you put him solely on AK. If you believe that only a third of the time he would play a big pair that way, then the odds for a call of his allin reraise are compelling.
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  #18  
Old 07-01-2005, 02:17 PM
LuvDemNutz LuvDemNutz is offline
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Default Re: Results and thoughts

True - it is close, which is why I posted the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

So the fact that I'm left with 5350 and am about to post 850 in blinds and antes over the next 2 hands doesn't factor into your decision at all?
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