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  #1  
Old 03-26-2005, 01:04 AM
elmitchbo elmitchbo is offline
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Posts: 129
Default do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

i've been thinking about it lately. i never seem to win the 50/50. it seems like my AA is the one that gets busted, but when i face AA i lose. is it in anyway possible that some people actually have better luck?

i just played my weekly home game. very frustrating. i seem to come out on the losing end week after week. i know that there's not another player there that could give you an explanation of pot odds, or any other basic poker principle. i do the right things... i bet enough to make others make mistakes according to the theory of poker... but i always get sucked out on. anybody could be playing anything, and call big raises with it all the way to a showdown. it's amazing how often people win playing like that! that's part of the reasoning behind my new 'junk card' theory. bad hands aren't that bad... just be aggressive and you'll be amazed how often you win. but i think lady luck may be plotting against me. actually, i think i may just have a hard time being aggressive enough in live play.

i would like to think that i've gotten used to the speed of online play, and that bad beats in real life are a different story. after all, it's a slow game... maybe 40 hands per hour... so i think it could take a year or more to know who is actually beating the game. never the less, it's hard to not feel like other players are 'luckier' than i am.

sometimes i feel that way online too. do some players have better luck, or are they just better players? i mean, how can you actually be a better player when you call an all-in with 95o and catch a full house to beat KK? it happens all the time. am i too timid a player to make those tpes of gambles? or will everything level off in the loooooonnngg ruuuuuuuunnn? hopefully the latter. poker is a cruel mistress.
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  #2  
Old 03-26-2005, 02:31 AM
Alex/Mugaaz Alex/Mugaaz is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 403
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

[ QUOTE ]
i've been thinking about it lately. i never seem to win the 50/50. it seems like my AA is the one that gets busted, but when i face AA i lose. is it in anyway possible that some people actually have better luck?

i just played my weekly home game. very frustrating. i seem to come out on the losing end week after week. i know that there's not another player there that could give you an explanation of pot odds, or any other basic poker principle. i do the right things... i bet enough to make others make mistakes according to the theory of poker... but i always get sucked out on. anybody could be playing anything, and call big raises with it all the way to a showdown. it's amazing how often people win playing like that! that's part of the reasoning behind my new 'junk card' theory. bad hands aren't that bad... just be aggressive and you'll be amazed how often you win. but i think lady luck may be plotting against me. actually, i think i may just have a hard time being aggressive enough in live play.

i would like to think that i've gotten used to the speed of online play, and that bad beats in real life are a different story. after all, it's a slow game... maybe 40 hands per hour... so i think it could take a year or more to know who is actually beating the game. never the less, it's hard to not feel like other players are 'luckier' than i am.

sometimes i feel that way online too. do some players have better luck, or are they just better players? i mean, how can you actually be a better player when you call an all-in with 95o and catch a full house to beat KK? it happens all the time. am i too timid a player to make those tpes of gambles? or will everything level off in the loooooonnngg ruuuuuuuunnn? hopefully the latter. poker is a cruel mistress.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't mean to be rude. But if you are going to believe people are lucky, and that this is the main "skill" that long term winners have.....you need to stop playing. Your post almost comes to the brink of saying that people who play poorly are the winners.

I don't know what else to say. I have a strong feeling you are playing at stakes which are too high for you as well. Start playing absolute micro limits where you can focus on your play regardless of your results.
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  #3  
Old 03-26-2005, 02:36 AM
Daniture Daniture is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

See the thing is we only ever remember the bad beats.

Do you remember the time you called a raise with QJs flopped the open ended straight caught it and beat someones AAo? No but you won't forget it if you held the AAo.

You don't remember the coinflips you win cause you're due. Its just a normal occurance. I won a coinflip whoopdee. Yet when you loose a couple in a row you think damn my luck is poor.

Get PT you'll find you're not as unlucky as me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #4  
Old 03-26-2005, 02:48 AM
FrankLu99 FrankLu99 is offline
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Posts: 2
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

of course some people are luckier than others.
have u not seen unbreakable?
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  #5  
Old 03-26-2005, 12:00 PM
Gbob Gbob is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Posts: 69
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

As others have pointed out, you are far more likely to remember the big beats than the small wins (or even the large ones!). You also don't see the winning hands other people held that they threw away, or that you chased them away with. This gives a skewed picture to the player, leading to belief in luck as an important factor.

So, the question you need to ask is "why am I losing". Either you're over comiting yourself to pots that you feel you "deserve" to win, or there's another hole in your game.

Remember, math is only one factor in the complete poker game. You might be far superior than the other players in this regard (I won't judge) but be lacking in the other skills. It could be something as simple as a tell you have, or perhaps it's simply a predictable table image.

Every game has holes. Some are so terrible you kick yourself for weeks after finding out. Recently I discovered two basic flaws. One was a tell. Turned out I was tossing in bigger demoniation chips in the pot when I was bluffing than when I had a real hand. I never realized this and god knows how much money it cost me the past year. The next flaw was a lack of agression with my hand. I knew the math and based my game on a worst case scenario. Although I knew intellectually that being a calling station is a bad flaw, I couldn't push other players when I had a slight edge.

Point is, players who believe they are simply being unlucky are players who are not honestly looking at their game.
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  #6  
Old 03-26-2005, 01:25 PM
TStoneMBD TStoneMBD is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Rome, NY
Posts: 268
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

[ QUOTE ]
i've been thinking about it lately. i never seem to win the 50/50. it seems like my AA is the one that gets busted, but when i face AA i lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

you lost me right here.
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  #7  
Old 03-26-2005, 02:20 PM
pudley4 pudley4 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Mpls, MN
Posts: 1,270
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

[ QUOTE ]
i've been thinking about it lately. i never seem to win the 50/50. it seems like my AA is the one that gets busted, but when i face AA i lose. is it in anyway possible that some people actually have better luck?

i just played my weekly home game. very frustrating. i seem to come out on the losing end week after week. i know that there's not another player there that could give you an explanation of pot odds, or any other basic poker principle. i do the right things... i bet enough to make others make mistakes according to the theory of poker... but i always get sucked out on. anybody could be playing anything, and call big raises with it all the way to a showdown. it's amazing how often people win playing like that! that's part of the reasoning behind my new 'junk card' theory. bad hands aren't that bad... just be aggressive and you'll be amazed how often you win. but i think lady luck may be plotting against me. actually, i think i may just have a hard time being aggressive enough in live play.

i would like to think that i've gotten used to the speed of online play, and that bad beats in real life are a different story. after all, it's a slow game... maybe 40 hands per hour... so i think it could take a year or more to know who is actually beating the game. never the less, it's hard to not feel like other players are 'luckier' than i am.

sometimes i feel that way online too. do some players have better luck, or are they just better players? i mean, how can you actually be a better player when you call an all-in with 95o and catch a full house to beat KK? it happens all the time. am i too timid a player to make those tpes of gambles? or will everything level off in the loooooonnngg ruuuuuuuunnn? hopefully the latter. poker is a cruel mistress.

[/ QUOTE ]

Selective memory.

Or you suck at poker.
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  #8  
Old 03-26-2005, 03:31 PM
GMan42 GMan42 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 29
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

[ QUOTE ]
Do you remember the time you called a raise with QJs flopped the open ended straight caught it and beat someones AAo?

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure hope their AA was offsuit--otherwise the dealer has some 'splainin to do. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Sorry, couldn't resist.
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  #9  
Old 03-26-2005, 05:55 PM
TheLoneGunman TheLoneGunman is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

luck is a huge factor in short term poker. the key to getting over that problem is having a large enough bank roll to deal with short term loses. It's also easy to let those loses weaken your play, so you end up losing alot more on top of the bad beats.
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  #10  
Old 03-26-2005, 06:10 PM
mattyG mattyG is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 6
Default Re: do some people really have better luck?(rant... be prepared)

Doyle Brunson has said learning to manage your luck; things like what cards you seem to catch, or when to play trash, is a real key. I always catch tens and jacks
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