I really need your help (personal and kinda long /w stats)

[jay1313]

Hi Brad:

I have always enjoyed your posts and found your thinking to be sound. I don't always agree with your suggestions, but they always made me stop and think 'why' I do things the way I do. I have always found you to be 'tighter' then me when it comes to certain plays so I have found your comments helpful in my personal quest to 'put people on hands' better.

[LazyRobot]

I agree with the above posters. Your advice here is very helpful. Like anything in poker most plays are debatable, but you seem to bring compelling arguments to every HH. You have added a lot of value to this forum.

[tiltaholic]

Hi-

The terse nature of my response is because I'm at work and need to log off soon, but --

IMHO, I have always found your hand analyses, explanations, and reasoning very thoughtful and meaningful. I am not good enough to know whether it is correct in the absolute sense. Your advice tends toward conservative, rockish, low-variance advice (is it weak-tight, maybe, but definitely low-variance) and looks like that is your goal from the outset. However, IMHO, I think these strategies are extremely far from optimal for low micro-limit games and may not even be sustainable unless you've got extremely good table selection skills (which I don't have). As another poster noted, you've never played below 3/6 online. If true, I'd agree with him that the levels at .5/1 and 1/2 are a whole different world, in which high variance strategies must be implemented in order to achieve optimal results (which we assume here at 2+2 as being say 3BB/100) 0.5 BB/100 may be fairly representative of a low variance strategy, but I don't know...and, as someone who has never played above 2/4, I don't know anything about 5/10. And clearly, 5k hands is but a drop in the urinal.

So, I say, take a break. Establish your confidence again. Hell, drop down in limits. Play live in a casino. Anything...hell if it would help, and we could find a way to do it, I'd scan 1000 hands for you and point out if I'd do something differently and why (which may or may not be helpful)

-t

[VBM]

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1) How helpful are my posts/advice?

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you are one of 3 micro-posters (Entity & btspider) i will read threads on solely b/c you've posted there.

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2) Have you employed anything I have said into your play and if so, has it been helpful to your own game?

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the thing for me that stands out in your posts is to constantly absorb betting patterns from Villain and disseminate that info into your own play rather than getting caught up in playing your own cards (e.g. not playing QQ like a runaway truck even though your opponent is telegraphing to you he has paired an A or somethign like that)

to be quite honest, I believe you should be soliciting and posting feedback primarily amongst your peers in small stakes and getting the advice of guys like Stellarwind, sthief09, CDC, GoT, JoeTall, etc... those guys occasionally wander down into here, but they primarily play your level of tables and frankly, are more familiar with the competition & nuances of that game.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
to be quite honest, I believe you should be soliciting and posting feedback primarily amongst your peers in small stakes and getting the advice of guys like Stellarwind, sthief09, CDC, GoT, JoeTall, etc... those guys occasionally wander down into here, but they primarily play your level of tables and frankly, are more familiar with the competition & nuances of that game.


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I also completely agree with this.

[the_rookie]

Hey Shill, sorry to hear about your downswing. YOur responses has defintely helped my game. You are a winning TAG player. This is the style that wins money in the long run. Maybe the long run hasn't been reached yet.. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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I think that it is time for me to hang um up as a poker player

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Nah, this downswing can't get any worse, dont let variance get the best of you.

[btspider]

shill, how many tables do you play? switch to 1/2 6-max or some other soft game to build some confidence and to validate your play. also, have you analyzed your table selection methods much?

take a mental break for a week or two if the results are bugging you. i've had an anemic winrate ever since i left 1/2, but i've only played 6K hands at 2/4. my playing time has really been cut the past few months, so maybe that's to be expected.

your posts are fine as i'm sure everyone is saying, so consider posting some more turn/river related hands. perhaps your game speed decisions are coming up shorter than your postgame analysis skills.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Brad,

I don't want to dissect your stats because I don't think I have any expertise to do so. I just want to tell you that you (and a couple others) are the only people in the micro forums I automatically read posts by just to try and learn something. You have a great understanding of the poker knowledge needed to crush the micro game.

I've always wondered why you spend so much time posting here instead of Small Stakes. I decided you either really enjoy helping and teaching, or you really enjoy being the most knowledgeable fellow on the forum. I hope this doesn't come across wrong but you probably don't belong in micro in the first place. Those Small Stakes guys can really help out in ways people here cannot.

I also don't think there is anything wrong with admitting being an online poker pro is not for you. I've read many times that anyone who can be a successful pro poker player is probably smart enough to find an even more successful career. Best of luck if you choose to take that route.

Chris
(DeathDonkey)

[Entity]

Brad,

I'm gonna take a shot at this one here. First of all, you're definitely running bad. Look at KK and QQ as evidence to that. Here are my numbers over the last 28k hands with those hands (usual sample size statements apply):

AA: 3.43bb/hand
AKs: 1.15bb/hand
AKo: .99bb/hand
AQs: 1.35bb/hand
AQo: (.17bb/hand)
AJs: (.23bb/hand)
AJo: .35bb/hand
KK: 2.58bb/hand
QQ: 1.48bb/hand
JJ: 1.21bb/hand
TT: .42bb/hand
99: 1.19bb/hand

That said, I notice a few things in your game that might sometimes apply. I don't see all of your hands, so I wouldn't take this as gospel or anything, but from your advice (which is generally very very solid) and your hands you've posted, I've observed the following:

1: You get too fancy too often. Sometimes it's fun to wait for the turn to raise; sometimes it's more profitable. But against good opponents who see you call their flop bet and raise the turn, it'll be absolutely obvious what you have. Against bad opponents, you can pop the flop and often will still get a chance to raised/checkraise on the turn. This is really just a bland example; I generally avoid FPS and almost always take the most straightforward line possible. I get trickier in shorthanded play, but at full ring games, it's rarely worth my time.

2: You seem to pride yourself in making good folds. I don't know how often you do this, but I take the opposite approach. Obviously when you know you're beat, you know you're beat; I have to say, though, that making laydowns isn't my forte, and I believe that folding too much (especially in moderate-to-decent sized pots) will kill your winrate. You seem all-to-ready to fold in some instances where I'd definitely call down. I'm very ready to accept this as a potential leak in my game, however.

3: Your game selection sucks. This, I believe, is the most important aspect. You aren't a winner at 5/10, and it's somewhat tough to accept that. But I think you'll have to at some point. Read ElSapo's confession. 5/10 is a notably frustrating game, and I don't see why people play it willingly when there are more profitable ventures to be found elsewhere. Learn shorthanded play. Step back to the 1/2 6max games for a while (softsoftsoftsoftsoftsoft), work on your shorthanded game, and then when you feel comfortable, bump it up to 5/10 6max.

If you don't want to play shorthanded, go back to 3/6. The games at 3/6 are still very beatable for 2bb/100, just playing ABC (or semi-ABC). So if you 4-table 3/6, you're getting in ~200h/hr, so you're looking at $24/hr for playing 3-6. That's a livable wage, even if it's a bit of a grind. Add rakeback to it (we've had this discussion), and you'll be earning well over $30/hr, which is definitely a livable income. Adding more tables and playing more hands at that level, earning 50k+/yr at 3/6 is very doable. You'll also have a somewhat-expendable roll to move up to 5/10 6max comfortably and confidently within a short amount of time.

4: Unless the bad beat jackpot is greater than $225k (at 3/6), stop playing it. The EV breakeven point for the BBJ is $222,151.66 at 3/6, and $247,629.10 at 5/10. You should be spending your time in greener pastures, with rakeback, until the BBJ hits a point (like now) where it's clearly profitable to play the tables.

5: Learn a new game. Even a tightass like yourself can make money at PLO8. A lot of money, actually. Look into it: I've heard the quote before that finding a good PLO8 game is the closest thing you can find to being able to print money. From what I've seen, and I suck at the game, I agree.

6: Finally, start working on your game even more. The micros are a fun place to post, and even though I post a lot here, I do most of my reading elsewhere. Read the plays of other players, and figure out why you would or wouldn't do that; then question them. Argue with them, bicker with them, until you realize why they are right, or they realize why they are wrong. As fun as posting in the micros is, it's more to give back to the community than to work on your own game; the questions just aren't that challenging here. But in mid-high and in the shorthanded forum, I constantly find myself being challenged to come up with better lines, to improve my play and the play of others. I'd suggest you try the same.

I hope this advice will be well-received. I'm not a professional poker player because frankly, while I love the game, I don't have the patience to put up with the lifestyle a pro would. It's possible that you don't as well, but I don't want to see you give up the game. I think you're too good, and your presence will be missed too much around the forums to simply hang 'em up.

Rob

[zuluking]

Dude, take a break, get laid, and smoke a cigar (in that order please), then come back and play 2/4, 1/2, and .50/1. With rakeback, bonuses and the fish, there's plenty of money to be made. What do you think a $hitload of us have been doing all this time?