Confidence intervals for sngs??

Mr_J · #1 12-20-2005, 03:52 AM

I'm sure someone out there has a formula that I can plug some numbers into.

I'm particuarly interested in this for HU sngs, which would naturally be measured in winrate %.

Eg say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner...

pzhon · #2 12-20-2005, 10:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner...

[/ QUOTE ]
A win rate of 60% corresponds to a SD of sqrt(.6 * .4)=49%. After n tournaments, the SD of your observed win rate will be 49%/sqrt(n). One rough 95% confidence interval is 60%+-2 standard deviations.