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  #11  
Old 11-15-2005, 07:47 PM
ErrantNight ErrantNight is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

if the only thing you're worried about is that you might get raised by a two pair that has you dominated instead of the straight which has you owned why can you just bet/fold the turn?

you don't have enough outs to check/call if you're behind. so essentially you're hoping this gets checked through, or the button bluff bets with a worse hand. then... what? you're hoping he does so again on the river? you're planning on betting a safe river? you're planning on betting regardless?

until you get raised you have no reason to suspect you're behind. check/call bet seems like a great way to invest a lot without having any idea about where you stand.
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  #12  
Old 11-15-2005, 08:06 PM
me454555 me454555 is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

[ QUOTE ]
you don't have enough outs to check/call if you're behind. so essentially you're hoping this gets checked through, or the button bluff bets with a worse hand. then... what? you're hoping he does so again on the river? you're planning on betting a safe river? you're planning on betting regardless?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm ahead often enough that I can make the call when he bets the turn. The combination of outs when behind and calling when ahead make calling the turn bet profitable I hope.

If I bet the turn 1 of 3 things happens

1) he raises me w/the best hand and I toss it. I dont like this option as I give up on my 4 outter and getting bluffraised here would suck big time

2) He folds a hand I have crushed - this isn't great for me b/c he's so far behind that I don't mind giving the free card and I don't give him a chance to bluff at the pot.

3) He calls my bet - Now I'm still lost as to where I am b/c he could be calling w/a worse hand or calling w/a better hand.

If I check the turn here are my options

1) My opponents checks behind w/an inferior hand that likely has 4 outs to a split pot and 0-2 for a win. Not a big deal given the size of the pot

2) My oppoennt bets a hand where I'm ahead - this is great for me b/c I'm gaining an extra bet against hands that would have folded had I bet the turn. Hands like Ax or low PPs come to mind and a hand like 9x or Jx might even take a stab at the pot here or but fold to my turn bet

3) My oppoenent bets when I'm behind - I get to see the river cheaply

By checking the turn I allow my opponent to bluff the turn and I get a cheap shot at my 4 outter if I need it. I think the combination of these makes checking the turn the correct play. thoughts?

Once the river hits, my opponent bluffing is no longer a concern for me b/c he will likely give up any bluff and check behind on any hand I'm ahead of. He will however value bet a strait or possibly trips. This is why I bet the river. Once he raises me, I can't possibly be ahead so I toss it.
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  #13  
Old 11-15-2005, 08:11 PM
ErrantNight ErrantNight is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

while i agree for the most part with your reasoning, i'm not sure your opponents have as few outs to improve as you seem to think they do...
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  #14  
Old 11-15-2005, 08:21 PM
me454555 me454555 is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

how many outs do you think they have? Unless they have Kx, they can't have more than 2 for the win
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  #15  
Old 11-15-2005, 08:23 PM
ErrantNight ErrantNight is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

flush draws...
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  #16  
Old 11-15-2005, 08:25 PM
me454555 me454555 is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

good point, didn't think of that

but their calling anyway
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  #17  
Old 11-15-2005, 10:04 PM
pokerjunky pokerjunky is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

I think you're giving villain too much credit for being a decent player, after all he did limp on the button. He doesn't strike me as the type of player to bluff raise you on the turn or even fold a marginal hand for that matter. Value bet the turn and let him call you down with his pocket sixes or whatever else he's willing to call you down with.
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  #18  
Old 11-15-2005, 11:09 PM
me454555 me454555 is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

I think you're right about giving him too much credit for bluff raising me but I do think he can get rid of pocket sixes on a board like that. He may not get rid of a hand like a 87 or Jx which is something I should have taken into account.

I guess the question that this hand comes down to is how often will he bluff vs how often will he call w/a worse hand.
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  #19  
Old 11-15-2005, 11:15 PM
ErrantNight ErrantNight is offline
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Default Re: Hows my line?

[ QUOTE ]

I guess the question that this hand comes down to is how often will he bluff vs how often will he call w/a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

(1) he open limped on the button (he's loose and passive)

(2) you have given no reads on him (he has not previously gotten out of line)

(3) you have shown strength and it's a scary board (scary to bluff raise you)
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