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#91
10-12-2005, 05:55 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm sure you could be a great poker player and never think about things like this."

But I would think that a player who did think about things like this, and knew how to come up with an accurate answer, would be a favorite over a player who didn't and couldn't. Especially in no-limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to think so too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
#92
10-12-2005, 05:56 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
I am right in thinking that if someone chose to play sub-par hands with some potential against you, hoping others would enter the pot with them, that the KK would be worse off if several pots go four or five way?

And players will be "colluding" in an honest non-colluding way against you still, in multiway pots. You can probably see why in a three-way, more bets are going to go in between two-pair (having the KK beaten of course) and a straight.

Lars

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the jury is still out on this. On the plus side, the first guy is making a mistake, which benefits the KK, improving his winrate. On the downside, the extra money in the pot may allow some other hands to call correctly, taking some money away from KK.

My intuition is that the KK would benefit, but I can't prove it.

good luck.
eric
#93
10-12-2005, 06:03 PM
 DonT77 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Colorado Springs, CO Posts: 186
Re: Hypothetical Question

Are we raising every hand PF - thus costing everybody 2 Big Blinds to see the flop, except for the SB (1.5) and the BB (1.0)?

Are we assuming that our opponents play correctly and don't try to draw to one ace, a smaller pair, or suited connectors PF?

How are we going to play the hand after the flop - will we fold if the BB calls and an ace flops? Will we call down to the river if 3-bet PF, even though we know we are likely beat everytime we showdown?
#94
10-12-2005, 06:04 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing \$60 each time for a total of \$240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = \$210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Sparks,

You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold.

4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose \$45 = \$180 (\$160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

You're also understating the amount you win, as you left out both blinds as profit. When you win the 5th time, you win (105 or 110) + 30 + 60 + 60 = (260 or 265), assuming you get in no raises postflop.

That's \$16-\$21 / hand depending on the blind structure vs folding.

good luck.
Eric

edit: by the way, note that these numbers show calling outside the blinds to be barely profitable as well, HU at least. You win \$260 when you catch, and lose \$60 when you miss. Net EV = .18 (260) - .82 (60) = \$2.40 / hand

This is too close to actually play though probably, as you have to worry about another dominating ace playing, or someone having AA, or the KK not paying off the ace high flop...

#95
10-12-2005, 06:09 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
Are we raising every hand PF - thus costing everybody 2 Big Blinds to see the flop, except for the SB (1.5) and the BB (1.0)?

Are we assuming that our opponents play correctly and don't try to draw to one ace, a smaller pair, or suited connectors PF?

How are we going to play the hand after the flop - will we fold if the BB calls and an ace flops? Will we call down to the river if 3-bet PF, even though we know we are likely beat everytime we showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

These are exactly the questions implied by the post. What do you think the answers are?

good luck.
eric
#96
10-13-2005, 01:05 AM
 TheCodeDog Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3
Re: Hypothetical Question

I think I'd always raise KK preflop.
#97
10-13-2005, 01:30 AM
 Sparks Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 33
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing \$60 each time for a total of \$240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = \$210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold. 4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose \$45 = \$180 (\$160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I'm including the posted blind money, as I should. Why are you not including the blind money? 4 out of 5 times you lose 60 which is 240. On the 5th time you win 60 + 30 + 60 + 60 + 30(the folded BB post) = 240. So your best case scenario is you are break even when you're the SB. Otherwise, it's -EV, including playing from the BB and most certainly from positions other than the blinds.

If you don't want to include the posted blind money as a loss 4 out of 5 times, then Ax is +EV from the blinds. But obviously, it's just plain silly not to include it. Is it not money you are losing?

Thanks for your thoughts on this, by the way.

Sparks
#98
10-13-2005, 02:20 AM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

To put it in your language Sparks, you'd have to look at a fold as losing \$20. So 5 folds is -\$100. Calling loses less, so it's +EV.

Personally, I think this is a very confusing way to look at the math, so I avoid it, but it's no less correct. I prefer to look at the money in the pot as dead, and folding is \$0 EV. Either way, calling Ax is the play, worth over 1/2 SB / hand.

good luck.
eric
#99
10-13-2005, 03:00 AM
 DavidC Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
In a typical ten handed 30-60 game where you normally make \$50 an hour, what would your win rate be if you were dealt two face up kings every hand and your opponents didn't collude? (Assume 40 hands per hour.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... Are they aware that you get kings every time?
#100
10-13-2005, 09:22 AM
 boondockst Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 440
Re: Hypothetical Question

face up kings

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