Final table - 7 handed - Blinds very high

[LuvDemNutz]

Bodog $10K guaranteed - down to 7 handed

Stack sizes are:

HERO in SB - 62,000
BB 38,000
UTG - 80,000
UTG+1 - 57,000
MP - 38,000
CO - 51,000
BUTTON - 53,000

Blinds are 4000/8000

Payouts are roughly -

1- $2500
2- $1500
3- $1050
4- $850
5- $650
6- $450
7- $350

Folds around to you in the SB -

What range of hands are you pushing with?

[sekrah]

I don't know about anybody else, but I'm still premium here.. A-K, A-Q, and 7-7 or better.

Button coming around for you.. There might be better spots. 2nd in chips and pay hikes are huge from here on in.

[BoneCollector]

9's or better, AK, AQ. You're probably going to lose about 1 player per orbit or 2 with blinds this high. With a bigger stack no need to get crazy...yet.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
9's or better, AK, AQ. You're probably going to lose about 1 player per orbit or 2 with blinds this high. With a bigger stack no need to get crazy...yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... this looks like prime time to get crazy, to me. I'd push a huge range, but not any two. Say Ax, Kxs, K7+, Q9+, JT, any pair. The more tight that he is and the more conservative my image, the more hands I add to that list.

The payout doesn't get steep until the top 3ish. I'm willing to flex my stack edge and splash some chips around to get a really big stack if at all possible. Picking on the short stacks here (who conveniently aren't so short to be desperate) is a great way to accumulate chips. This BB is very unlikely to get brave. The vast majority of small buyin tournaments involve people getting weak tight at the final table, especially when everyone is neck-and-neck.

Yeah he might catch JJ and call you, but whatever. You're not dead, you can suck out, and the VAST majority of the time you're taking this down and cut the gap to chip lead in half. I'll take those odds.

Kings

[LuvDemNutz]

Well I think I really screwed this one up -

I pushed with J9o -

I saw $12K for the taking and a semi-shortacked opponent in th BB who, even if I lost to, would not cripple me.

Unfortunately he called with AJo and I was down to $24K.

In retrospect I don't think it was worth it attempting to steal $12K in chips as they really woudln't have gave me that much more of an advantage over the rest of the table.

I got knocked out a few hands later when I pushed UTG with QQ and got called by BB with A6s and he runner runnered his flush.

[sekrah]

Agreed.. with 2nd chip stack.. It's not worth it.

Short stack on BB would probably call with A-x and you're a dog.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I think I really screwed this one up -

I pushed with J9o -

I saw $12K for the taking and a semi-shortacked opponent in th BB who, even if I lost to, would not cripple me.

Unfortunately he called with AJo and I was down to $24K.

In retrospect I don't think it was worth it attempting to steal $12K in chips as they really woudln't have gave me that much more of an advantage over the rest of the table.

I got knocked out a few hands later when I pushed UTG with QQ and got called by BB with A6s and he runner runnered his flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

So... you screwed up because you lost? What if you'd sucked out? I mean it sucks that he caught AJ and had you dominated, but considering his calling range here I think J9o is fine to push. And if you win these blinds you won't be ready to run over the table yet, but if you steal once or twice more, you will (or if he calls and you suck out). This is the IDEAL spot to have a big stack, with a bunch of medium runners before the pay gets uber-steep, so if you manage to get some stack power you can run away with this tournament.

Kings

[davidross]

Unless I sense that this guy is ready to gamble I push with any 2 here. My experience is that you are only getting called here by a pair, Ax or KQ. You can bump your stack by 20% around 90% of the time, and you'll still suckout 1/3 of the time you get called. And the biggest factor is that you can't go bust.

Plus the big stack is 2 to your left, which means most of the time you need to be cautious with him acting after you, this is the perfect spot to make a move.

[LuvDemNutz]

Kings and david -

I appreciate your responses - and certainly your thinking mirrored mine at the time which is why I pushed.

But, I would like to examine the situation a little further.

If I push and he folds - I will have $70,000 (for arguments sake I will assume he folds 75% of the time).
If I fold - I will have $58,000

If I push and he calls and I win - I have 100,000
If I push and he calls and I lose - I have 24,000
Assuming I'm a 2:1 dog on average when he calls my EV is = 100,000*1/3 + 24,000* 2/3 = ~49,000

So a simple EV calc would be something like

.75*70,000 + .25*49,000 = $64,750.

So this would appear to be +chip EV since folding results in $58,000.

Now this is the part I struggle with - standard EV calculations are straightforward but how do we translate them to tournament EV?

The problem I have with the push is that if he folds (which granted is the most likley scenario) I have 70,000. Does having 70,000 chips really give me that much more of an advantage over the rest of the table given the relatively equal stack sizes?

It seems to me that at this point in the tourney, the players who advance are the ones who get lucky and win the all-in PF pushes. EVERYONE is short relative to the blinds.

Given that, and given that I am on a relatively even playing field with the rest of the table, shouldn't I be waiting for a premium to get it in with?

If I get blinded a couple of times, THEN I can push some marginal hands hoping to steal and re-pad my stack. But, why risk it now with THIS hand?

I try to have an "accumlator" mentality when playing these tourneys and granted, I made several marginal pushes in LP along the way that helped me get this far in the first place.

BUT, I need to better understand when to switch off that "accmulator" mentality and turn on the "conservatist" one.

I need to better understand when a +chip EV decision is -tourney EV and vice versa.