creative thinking or just dumb?

[tinhat]

This hand will be easy to poo-poo but please don't get hung up on "small pot" or "weak hand" or "oop" or "no pfr" - look past that for a minute. I'm interested in the concept and this particular example hand can come in many different forms:

I have a hand I'd like to play but clearly would have to fold to a flop bet if I check. To avoid that, it's not unreasonable to assume I could be good at this point so I lead for the express purpose of seeing the turn card. (Rainbow flop, no ace, oop lead, not too unreasonable to think it won't be raised but that doesn't really matter anyway.)

I don't know the % of hitting gutshot on the next card if it isn't always 1 in 11 but since I only do this multiway it seems the times I lose a sb is worth the 1 time I hit. I wouldn't do this unless it was multiway, somewhat favorable flop and without big street raises the win is marginal compared to sbs lost (but marginals add up).

The point is I'm trying to avoid having to fold a nut gutshot to a flop bet assuming that multiway it won't get checked around (lp could bet ace high into weakness for instance or oesd might bet). I don't fear a pair - I just don't have odds to call if I let a pair lead. So if there's a flaw here, what is it?


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

[Isura]

Betting out is fine against tight and passive players. I'd just check/call if the players were aggressive though.

[tinhat]

I'm probably missing something but how can you call here? For implied odds to hold up no one can fold the hand anywhere (which seems unreasonable).

It's not really this hand I'm interested in anyway - it's leading to avoid (what I think) would be a flop calling mistake in order to see the turn.

[Disconnected]

I appreciate what you're trying to get at, but you do have to look at the size of the pot and your position when trying to figure out a play, because it does dictate how/whether you're going to spend your bets (or calls). If you don't want to fold to a flop bet after checking, I'm not sure why you would instead bet. That said, I think there are two ways to look at this flop.

One is that you want to play this hand as cheaply as possible right now. You've got great relative position to try that. You can check, then call a single bet, or if it's bet and raised in front of you, you can get out of the pot. If you're taking the play it as cheaply as possible approach (sounds like you are), then I think check/call beats bet/?, because if you are raised, what are you going to do?

The other way to look at it is that it's an unraised pot, you may have the best hand now, and a bet may fold out some other draws. It's at least a semi-bluff, anyway. If you hit an A, you'll probably have the best hand (it would only make one straight).

I think with the pot this small, I'd take the check/call line. Cheap is good here, and position does matter. But I think a call of a single bet would be fine, since you do have TP outs that are not terrible, in addition to the implied odds you'd get from your gutshot. But if it's 2 bets coming back on the flop, it would be one to let go.

You said that you didn't want to give a LP player a chance to bet a weak Ace. If you think there's a good chance the LP player will bet a weak Ace, isn't that a good reason to check/call? You beat a weak Ace, in this example. You don't have a terrible hand, here, but OTOH, I'm not seeing enough equity to bet out, given the board.

All that said, would it be out of line to raise pre-flop with AT from the SB against 2 limpers?

[DrunkHamster]

I don't mind it at all, especially if the players are relatively likely to fold. Personally I would have raised it PF, exactly for situations like this where a bit of momentum would help greatly. However, I still like the flop bet. If you can get 2 or 3 to fold, you still have very solid winning chances with your OC and gutshot. Reads would help cement this though.

[mmmmmbrother]

if you have good reads on the players and they either all might fold or all might call to the end then nice play.

if the 4 players are 3 TPP and 1 LAG then this play will cost you a lot of money

[tinhat]

[ QUOTE ]

your bets (or calls). If you don't want to fold to a flop bet after checking, I'm not sure why you would instead bet. That said, I

[/ QUOTE ]

To avoid the gambling error of calling with only a gutshot.

This is mostly a conceptual question I'm getting at - a tactic to avoid a gambling error. And in this example it isn't a hand meant to be played to the end - only if I hit the turn.

My objective is seeing the next card. I avoid the gambling error by leading instead (like I said, if it's raised I'm out. But being raised doesn't matter - I only need to hit 1 in 11 on the turn to eventually profit).

OP was centered on whether or not I have a valid enough reason to justify leading with an over (pairing it is no good, but I may be good with ace high here). If I were to check and someone bet my reason is gone because I now know only hitting one of four cards makes me good - and I can't call. I avoid having to acknowledge that only one of four cards helps me by leading instead (where knowing that, is a gamling error to call).

But I doubt anyone really cares about this; and I'm getting tired of thinking about it. It's probably mostly just an academic exercise (i.e., leading to avoid a technical calling error).

Mike

[gonzopro]

The problem is that calling one bet with a gutshot and overcard is definitely not as big an error (if at all) as betting into a small pot with 3 other players in it with A high and two broadway cards on the board. I definitely ck/call the flop here.

However, if only 1 or 2 tight passives were in this pot or if flop was uncoordinated rags then I think you should definitely lead out because most people will fold and you have a good chance to win the pot.

In this example, too often someone will have a J or K and will reraise to protect their hand causing you to either have to lay down your hand or make an incorrect/borderline call.