TT vs. 3 loose passives, value bet river?

jb9 · #1 07-09-2005, 02:23 PM

SB, BB, and UTG+1 are all fairly loose passive.

No one bets except me, but the board is paired, there is an overcard to my pair, and the river card completes the flush and a (somewhat unlikely) straight.

The pot is big enough that I think I have to call if I bet and get check raised, although I'll almost surely be beat.

Value bet or free showdown?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls $2 (All-In), SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero ...

Redeye · #2 07-09-2005, 02:30 PM

I wouldn't worry about a flush, theres no way they would go for a c/r there, usually it will be a donkbet. Youd've heard from a 3 long before now. If they are all really loose passive I think its a pretty easy river bet.

Moneyline · #3 07-09-2005, 02:37 PM

I'm a big fan of categorizing opponents not only by how loose and how aggressive they are, but also by how predictable they are. For instance, a player who calls down with everything, but will raise with top pair or better is what I consider loose/passive/predictable. But if that same player also calls down with hands like top pair then I consider that player to be somewhat unpredictable. The reason I mention this is because I would play this hand differently depending upon how predictable my opponents are.

That said, with no read on predictability I think I would value bet in this spot because I would expect most opponents would have raised with a jack or a 3 by now. I think it's fairly close though, and having a read on the predictability of my opponents would make it an easier decision.

mute · #4 07-09-2005, 02:38 PM

Bet/calling is not an option here, with less than top pair on a paired, three-flush board.

Against these opponents, I would feel comfortable enough about bet/folding. They will have 9s, 7s and small pocket pairs often enough here for this to be +EV, and I don't see them bluffraising here ever.

bungyrocks · #5 07-09-2005, 04:06 PM

I would check it through. I know they are loose passives but what are they calling you with that you beat? IMHO someone has a jack with a weak kicker.
or am I too weak tight?

brettbrettr · #6 07-09-2005, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would check it through. I know they are loose passives but what are they calling you with that you beat? IMHO someone has a jack with a weak kicker.
or am I too weak tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. I couldn't figure out why everyone liked a bet here. I think Hero is beat.