This confused me - 2 parter

[Matt Flynn]

10-handed $10-25 UB

Me: UTG with $4823.
UTG+1 irrelevant.
UTG+2 $301 and slinging
UTG+3 $789 revved but not slinging
UTG+4 irrelevant
UTG+5 irrelevant
CO irrelevant
Button irrelevant
SB irrelevant
BB $6600.50 and playing tight postflop.

Me: 9h 9d

Pre-flop:

I call. UTG+3 raises to $50. UTG+4 calls. BB calls. I call.

Flop (board: 6c 8d 9s): Pot = $210.

BB checks.
I check. Anybody play it different? Likelihood of one of t
hem moving on the pot was high.
UTG+3 goes all-in for $251.
UTG+4 calls (!) UTG+4 is bad but not a dingleberry.
BB raises to $625.

I ?????

Matt

[MLG]

Is there any benefit to raising here? It seems like you let him get off a hand like QQ or some such much too often. Also you have never done anything to show how incredibly strong you are so he's certainly going to put money in with a worse hand on the turn.

The only down side I see is a scare card killing the pot on the turn. if he has a smaller set you lose your chance to get the money in now. Thing is though, a straight is possible now too, and you raise here your gonna end up having to get the money in behind when he puts the 3rd raise in because the pot is ginormous.

Long winded way of saying I call.

[AZK]

call? Seems clear, you know better than me.

Do you lay 66 down here?

Edit: BB doesn't know how strong you are since you checked fyi.

[Matt Flynn]

I called. UTG+4 goes all in. BB calls (he cannot raise). I call (I cannot raise).

Pot is $2668.

Turn is an offsuit king. BB checks. BB is capable of checking a straight there and could also well have a lesser set or a draw with a pair or remotely kings.

Your action? Be specific: if you check, say why; if you bet state how much and what you will do if check-raised.

Matt

[AZK]

If BB is playing tight does that mean he is capable of check-raising turn, and tight is weird because a tight player wouldn't check a straight would he? Is it equally likely that he checks a set on the turn as well as the straight? Is it equally likely that he will bet a straight the same way he bets a set on the flop? I don't know the answers to these questions or what they mean once you do have answers, but my scotch is talking and I think these questions are crucial to your decisions....trying to work this through in my own head, so everyone figure my drunken mutterings...

[MLG]

I think I check behind here. I have the same problem betting here that I do raising the flop. There are a lot more hands that you are ahead of that put money in here than there are hands that you beat. The obvious drawback is that you are letting hands like pair and a draw draw at you for free, but I'm gonna accept that trade off for making my river decision easy (although if the river blanks and he bets the call v. raise decision isnt all that easy).

Checking here is a lot closer decision in my mind than just calling the flop because you are sacrificing a good amount of equity against a lot of hands. Although if I'm stuck making a marginal decision like I am here I'd rather keep the pot small (well as small as possible here).

[Siawyn]

I'm more replying this to test myself, not because I feel like I'm qualified to give you advice.. I find this a really fascinating hand.

Would the BB call a raise with T7 or 75? Because everyone else is irrelevant with the stack sizes, you are only playing against the BB.

It's really hard to imagine T7 here... 75 is a skosh more reasonable I guess. Since you say he plays tight postflop, I'm much more likely to believe he has 88, 66, or 98.... maybe a hand like 87?

I think it's much more likely I'm ahead here, and a number of cards can come off on the turn to either scare me or kill the action. I like the idea of reraising to something like $1500 straight, since there's $1300 in the pot now. If BB is really tight post flop, then I can fold to a push over that.

Take this with a grain of salt since the idea of "reraising to $1500 straight" is enough to make my bankroll wilt. I just wonder how my thought process is here.

[tpir90036]

This could all be a mile off...but whatever, I feel like posting:

Given the action to this point I don't see how BB could have a straight. Call me weird but I think his hand range is pretty narrow right now.

I bet something that I think he will call to hopefully create a sidepot because it looks like if we don't fill we might be losing the main pot.

I would bet about 1/2 of the pot and throw up if he check-raised....then I would call. I just don't see him showing up with a straight or check-raising though. *Shrug*

[Matt Flynn]

he's been playing solid. he knows i most likely have a made hand. he is capable of checkraising there.

[Siawyn]

Well, he had no idea you were so strong until you called... you checked the flop after all.

Boy, I'm really torn on the turn. Half of me says check behind and manage the pot size, the other half wants to fire out a bet of, say, $1500. Does BB have an opinion of you? I would find it really hard to be reraising you here without a straight. I'd call a min-check raise but would strongly consider folding to a check-raise push. But I'm not so sure he could check-raise push you with a lower set...? If you're LAGing it up, then maybe he could. I guess some of it depends on how my prior history has gone at the table.

I'm gonna vote for betting $1500. I think checking gives up too much value here. I would check 66, but not 99.