TPMK type hands HU

You hold AT and you believe your villain may also hold an ace. HU to the flop...(Suits are unimportant in this ex.)

Flop comes A96. You have top pair and a *moderate-to-strong* kicker heads up. This is a strong hand.

But wait, how strong is it, really? Of course, there is always the probability that he holds AJ, AQ, AK, AA for a better hand that you may end up paying off to a showdown, but he can also hold A9 and A6 as well, and you are behind. If the turn comes 8 and river comes 4, then his kicker can now be a: 4, 6, 8, 9, J, Q, K, A all of which beat you.

Only if he holds A2, A3, A5, A7 do you win (If he indeed does have an ace).

So as you can see, IF he holds an ace, you are likely to be about 50/50 on a flop like this, and when 2 more undercards come on the turn and river, then you are likely to lose. Again, this is ONLY assuming he has an ace in his hand.

Sorry if this seems very obvious to some people, which I'm sure it is, but I just started really realizing this on these types of hands. Flopping TP with a good kicker is usually GREAT heads up, but when you put your villain on TP as well, then you can see that you may have several bullets to dodge in order to hold the winning hand at showdown. Hopefully this helps some playas out who have not perhaps realized this yet.

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