was I right to raise the turn?

lane mcbride · #1 12-20-2005, 06:40 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (15 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

hobbsmann · #2 12-20-2005, 06:42 PM

sure, the turn call/raise is fine as your equity in this pot is greater than 25%. I would have raised the flop though.

lane mcbride · #3 12-20-2005, 06:56 PM

i seriously considered raising the flop. I was torn between raising and calling. I wanted to tie the other players on to the pot because I figured no matter how many callers, if I hit my draw I would win. Since I had to improve anyway, I wanted the extra callers to come along for the ride

Nick C · #4 12-20-2005, 07:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have raised the flop though.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers?

I think the flop bettor probably has an ace.

hobbsmann · #5 12-20-2005, 07:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have raised the flop though.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers?

I think the flop bettor probably has an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
first off our equity is fairly large on this flop so the times the action goes hero raises, foldss, mp2 3-bets we are not losing all that much in terms of expectation as our equity is high AND our implied odds also go up (if this guy's hand is strong enough to 3-bet, it is also strong enough for us to pick up 3bb the times we get there). Second point is that at this level sb and bb are almost never folding an ace for two bets and often times will even call with worse, so if they have something they are going to call with they will often call 2 bets cold with the same frequency as 1 bet. Third point is that people are often very passive at 0.5/1 and a free card play will work a large percentage of the time. Thus I think a flop raise makes us more in general, but it is probably close...

Nick Royale · #6 12-20-2005, 08:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have raised the flop though.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Do you really think you're going to increase your chances of winning enough to make up for driving out potential customers?

I think the flop bettor probably has an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
EV raise:
x = probability we get 1 coldcaller
y = probability we get 2 coldcaller

0.46*(1-x-y)*2 + x*0.46*4 + y*0.46*6 - 0.54*2 =
= 0.92x + 1.84y - 0.16

EV call:
u = probability we get 1 caller
v = probability we get 2 caller

0.46*(1+u+2v) - 0.54*1 =
= 0.46u + 0.92v - 0.08

Reasonable estimations at 0.5/1:
x=0.4
y=0.2

u=0.45
v=0.40

Gives:
EV raise: +0.58SB
EV call: +0.49SB

Eh, well... I though I might had been on to something with that calc, but the risk of being up against a fd, particulary when you get coldcall and the fact that losing custumers might lower our implied odds even though raising would pad the pot make me think a call is better. The raise isn't terribly far off though, even if my estimations is a little bit too optimistic what it comes to cold callers I think. A change of y to 0.1 would swing the calc by ALOT.

EDIT: a change of y to 0.1 would change the ev for the raise to 0.39...

hobbsmann · #7 12-20-2005, 08:13 PM

nick,

How do we account for getting a free card on the turn in an EV calculation?

Nick Royale · #8 12-20-2005, 08:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nick,

How do we account for getting a free card on the turn in an EV calculation?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's easy. I don't [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I first though it would be compensated by the fact that we expose ourselves for a 3-bet, but if we have gotten at least 1 coldcaller we like getting 3-betted so I would actually need to weight in the value of a free card.I actually might think it can swing the result so raising becomes slightly more profitable.

Important to consider is that this is for 0.5/1. I don't think raising is better at 2/4 and above. And even at 0.5/1 it's probably close.

Nick Royale · #9 12-20-2005, 08:35 PM

As you have seen I have neglected both the chance of getting a free card and getting 3-betted. It's just an approximation. I don't think the risk of a 3-bet swings the calcs by much, but the chance of getting a freecard should probably be accounted for.

Approximately I think you can see it as:
x*1*0.74 - 0.26*1*x (x being the chance of getting a free card).

So if the raise gives us the chance of 50% to get a free card, our equity is effected by:
0.5*0.74 - 0.26*0.5 = 0.24BB = 0.48SB

This is a huge differance and would make thje raise easy. I've never accounted the value of getting a freecard before so i would like to get some opinions...

chief444 · #10 12-20-2005, 07:20 PM

I don't. You have a 9 high...are almost never winning without a showdown...and you're barely above breakeven if you do get 4 callers if your flush always wins...which it occasionally won't. Just call.

Flop call is fine though.