Making him fold a better hand

[Saborion]

UTG is 23/11/2.1 and has a WSD/W$SD of 29/53 over 1070 hands.
MP is a loose, mostly passive player, both pre- and postflop.

First of all, how do we best play the flop against a player with UTG's stats? Any merit to check-raising him and taking advantage of the information a 3-bet from him will give us (because of his AF and the pot being 3-way), perhaps making us fold the turn unimproved? Or is that just wrong?

Secondly, can we use the turned ace to perhaps make UTG fold a better hand, and if so, how? Must not forget that there's a third player involved in the hand that can hold just about any kind of hand at this point.

And finally, if we can't take advantage of the ace to make UTG fold a better hand how should we proceed?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

[Wynton]

I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.

I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

[kapw7]

3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards. It's possible to try and make him fold QQ or KK but not likely as the pot is big and you have MP that can have an ace, ten or will outdraw you on the river.

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

[ QUOTE ]

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the flop. Your hand is strong but vulnerable to overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is my hand really strong based on the action so far? And how will 3-betting protect my hand from overcards? 3-betting would only serve two purposes here:
1) extract bets when we're ahead, which is very nice, but are we ahead often enough?
2) gain information so that we can fold our hand

[ QUOTE ]

However definitely go for a bet. UTG will be under a lot of pressure b/c of the ace and his bad position.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about a check-raise? That way we'll get to see what the MP decides to do, and it would put even bigger pressure on UTG since we've played our hand just like an AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.

The ace is one of the worse cards on the turn but the pot is big enough to try a desperate move.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]

3-bet is not for protection. I understand your concern b/c of UTG's PF stats. If you do the maths there are 18 ways for AA/KK/QQ and 16 ways for AK. Even if we are marginally behind, the hand is 3-way so we have enough equity to raise.


[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? First of all, if UTGs holdings are limited to AA-QQ and AK (as per your example) we MAY have an equity edge as far as fair share goes, all depending on what the MP is holding. But, not only could we possibly have less than fair share (again, depending on what MP has), the times UTG holds AA-QQ (which he has more 50 % of the times based on card distribution, NOT including the fact that he will not always raise AK on that flop) it will often be capped, meaning our equity edge regardless of what MP holds, is way lower than fair share, making the 3-bet a very bad move.

No, I think bet/3-bet is the second worst line, next to bet-call.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can get UTG to fold a better hand, or at least it's not likely enough to try. If he's got QQ, KK or any A, he's almost certainly going to show-down.


[/ QUOTE ]
I doubt he'd ever fold an ace, but I also don't think that's his most likely hand based on the preflop and flop action. The reason I asked is because of his low WSD. If I can't get someone with that low WSD to fold then clearly it's virtually impossible to get someone to fold KK/QQ here. I used to be weak postflop, and my WSD was around 29-30 %. All I remember is that I *could* fould KK/QQ here if I was up against a blind playing his hand like that.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have 3-bet the flop here and then revaluated based on whether it was capped or not, and whether MP was still in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are making a common, understandable mistake. Believe it or not, a person who raises a small percentage of hands preflop (say 7%), often does not raise with the best 7% of hands. Strange, but true.

Also, the cap doesn't necessarily mean much either; frequently, those who initiate the pf raising will thrown in a cap, when reraised. Then, with all that action pf, the same type of player (i.e., the apparently extra tight player) might well suddenly show his teeth by raising the flop, now that the pot is pretty big.

[Fabian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think someone with a 11 % PFR and 2.1 AF will cap 99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQs etc UTG in a 3-way pot and then raise the flop so often that we may be ahead here? I'm still learning, but I'd like to think that 99 is very unlikely, and so is AQ/AJ/KQs as well, based both on the preflop and the flop action. Please straighten my thinking and hand reading.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are making a common, understandable mistake. Believe it or not, a person who raises a small percentage of hands preflop (say 7%), often does not raise with the best 7% of hands. Strange, but true.

Also, the cap doesn't necessarily mean much either; frequently, those who initiate the pf raising will thrown in a cap, when reraised. Then, with all that action pf, the same type of player (i.e., the apparently extra tight player) might well suddenly show his teeth by raising the flop, now that the pot is pretty big.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree somewhat with your post. The key often when evaluating someone else's stats is to ask yourself "is this person sane or insane?" I definately agree that a 56/7/1.2/38 guy could have a lot of different hands when he raises or caps, like you say. However, this player tries to play well but is much too weak tight. When he becomes a little better he'll be like your average 2+2 poster.

Many players who try hard to be good but doesn't have enough experience (especially true for sh games) will end up like this. This particular opponent is playing with too much of a fit-or-fold mindset with his limping hands. Instead of taking control and raising preflop he limps instead, and he folds alot when he doesn't hit. This coupled with how strong he will play his good hands (remember, this is someone who tries to play well) gives him his high agression factor, since he seldom calls hands he should be calling postflop.

Ok kinda an off topic rant there. In this hand, after the flop action, I think UTG has a very strong hand. I'd have betcalled the flop planning on checkcalling the turn and river.

Once the ace shows up the turn is an easy checkfold.

Edited to clarify: I just realized what the title of the OP was. The reason UTG has such a ridiculous WSD number is not because he can be blown off overpairs. It's because he waits for those overpairs/TPTK hands before going to showdown. Don't try to bluff him here.

[bobhalford]

One line is to check raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet. Not saying I would do that, might be too fancy a play. You would be forced to bet the river if he calls the turn raise.

I would probably bet/fold the turn here.