Did I suck out on this??? Odds question>>>

[deception5]

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Where do you find loose 1/2 games on party? I almost never sit at a table that averages 6 players to the flop. Generally it is 3-4 players with the occasional 8 player LPfest hand. Was this table averaging that many players to the flop (this hand had only 5)? If not, you should be using the tight games guide which says only play KJo from middle position or later.

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I think it was fine to limp here, there are clearly 6 players limping in this hand. And KJo is going to perform fairly well regardless... especially against loose players. The chart is just suggested as a guideline, it's more important to know why you would limp/raise/fold here as there are situations where each is appropriate.

Some reasons you might raise:
You know 2 bad players will cold call with any 2 cards and the rest of the table will fold. Getting shorthanded against really bad players with a strong hand is very profitable.
You know players behind you would fold something like AJ because of your ep raise and you will often steal the blinds.

A reason to limp:
You are at a loose passive table where everyone is going to see the flop whether you raise or not. Your hand is strong but doesn't have a huge edge (and is in fact a slight underdog to Ax). They will call you down to the river if they hit anything.

A reason to fold:
You are at an aggressive table where it is frequently raised and reraised behind you. It is likely going to cost you 3-4 bets to see the flop.

[deception5]

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Of course you can't fold, but I might raise first time on the flop, you have two overcards also which might be clean outs and if that is true you have a ton of equity.


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Good point. I would probably cap with 4 opponents here if you chose not to raise the first time around.

[johnc]

I'm going to say you're on very thin odds to draw on the flop & turn and calling should be VERY read dependant.

Flop: The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible. The strong betting indicates strong draws &/or flopped sets or 2 pairs. By the time it gerts back to you you're getting ~9:1, I'm figuring your odds are worth about 8.5-1 w/overcards are worth about three between then b/c a K or a J could make someone their str8, your gutshot about 4 (now, hoping the flush doesn't come thru w/Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],but your redraw might bail you out), and your BD flush at about 1.5 (hoping someones not drawing to the nut w/the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] -very possible given the betting). Call is marginal, but peel one off and see.

Turn: Your BD flush draw is bye-bye w/the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so your outs are reduced, not a great card for you and may also give someone a redraw to the spade flush. Your outs at this as I see them are: OC - aren't worth much b/c they're str8 threats and the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] & the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] put three to a very likely flush so I'll give them a generous 2 outs, your gutshot is only worth 2 clean outs(can't count Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

River: you caught one of the two best cards in the deck for the nut str8 - yeah you sucked out, IMO.

[deception5]

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The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible

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This is what the hero is counting on. If a flush card comes he has a redraw to the second nuts. If a flush card doesn't come his straight will be the likely best hand.

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The strong betting indicates strong draws &/or flopped sets or 2 pairs.

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Top pairs or overpairs perhaps.

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your gutshot about 4

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It's a double gutshot.

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K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] put three to a very likely flush

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I really wouldn't worry about this... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

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Why were the overcards worth 3 outs on the flop but not the turn? Also double gutshot for 8 outs.

[johnc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The board is very coordinated, 2 flush, str8 draws all possible

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This is what the hero is counting on. If a flush card comes he has a redraw to the second nuts. If a flush card doesn't come his straight will be the likely best hand.

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The strong betting indicates strong draws &/or flopped sets or 2 pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pairs or overpairs perhaps.

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your gutshot about 4

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It's a double gutshot.

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K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] put three to a very likely flush

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wouldn't worry about this... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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so that gives you about 4 decent outs to a possible winner. The pots giving you ~6.25:1, you need better than 10.5:1 to continue, You need to fold here.

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Why were the overcards worth 3 outs on the flop but not the turn? Also double gutshot for 8 outs.

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Double gutshot? Ok, I see it.

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (bad edit job, sorry) it should've been Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Why are the OC only worth maybe three outs, IMO.Because you'll put three to a str8 on the board with either one thus discounting your TP chances of being best. The Turn is even worse b/c you no longer have a BD flush possiblity AND there's still the possiblity that those cards make a str8 for one of your opponents. HU I'd say they would be ok, maybe,but against multiple opponents showing definate strength no.

Even though I missed the double gutshot, I can't justify given it 8 "clean outs". Do you not see 2 flush possiblities on the board, esp the heart draw?

[deception5]

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Why are the OC only worth maybe three outs, IMO.Because you'll put three to a str8 on the board with either one thus discounting your TP chances of being best.

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I only mentioned it because you counted them in your flop analysis but not the turn analysis.

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Even though I missed the double gutshot, I can't justify given it 8 "clean outs". Do you not see 2 flush possiblities on the board, esp the heart draw?

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I agree they should be discounted to 6.5 or so. I don't give much credit to a backdoor spades draw with all the flop action, although it is a rare possibility. When it's a bet and raise on the turn, those players are more likely to have a made hand than a draw. The callers which were the players I would be more worried about having a flush draw folded. We're getting 2:14 or so on the turn or around 1:7 meaning even if we only give ourselves 6 clean outs we have odds to continue here. Let alone the implied odds if you do make your hand.

[magates]

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. . . you have two overcards also which might be clean outs and if that is true you have a ton of equity.

-DeathDonkey

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The K looks ok but the only J I'd like on the turn is the Jh, and then you no longer have a draw to the nut straight, though an opponent with AK is unlikely here. Overcards equal maybe 2.5-3 outs here?

[Bankuri]

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I think it was fine to limp here, there are clearly 6 players limping in this hand. And KJo is going to perform fairly well regardless... especially against loose players. The chart is just suggested as a guideline, it's more important to know why you would limp/raise/fold here as there are situations where each is appropriate.


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Oh certainly. I have seen several posters, however, using the loose game guidelines in tight games. Embedded in the charts is some of the knowledge of why you play/don't play certain hands certain ways. Any specific table will have unique situations that make certain unplayable hands playable (and conversely certain playable hands may not be playable), but IME at your average pp 1/2 table you aren't going to be at a 'loose' table as defined by SSHE.

[Greg J]

My first reaction is to raise this flop. You have a few back door draws and a couple of overcards that might be good -- though I discount that when it's capped back to me. After that you are pretty much sucked into this pot.

I'm not a huge fan of the preflop limp. KJo is where I draw a line. I perfer a raise to a call here UTG, but a fold to both of those.

[@bsolute_luck]

fold preflop.
raise the flop.