The Wrong-Sized Raise

[AlanBostick]

Here's a hand I played a couple of months ago:

NL hold'em, $2-$3-$5 blinds, $10-to-go before the flop. Stack sizes range from around $300 to $2000; I've got $1200 in front of me. It's the game at the El Dorado in Reno; I'm visiting from out of town, and know maybe four of the other eight players.

UTG, a stranger to me with a stack of about $1000, opens for $30. I've got QQ. I raise, making it $100 straight. The big blind (another stranger) calls the raise, so does the opener. There is $300 in the pot; the big blind has $500 left, the opener has $900, and I've got $1100.

The flop comes 7 7 4 rainbow. Both players check to me; I don't have a read on my opponents, but I don't think a 7 is a particularly scary card to have paired on the board. I bet the pot, $300.

The big blind drops out without hesitating. After a moment's thought, my other opponent raises $300. There's $900 in the pot plus the additional $300 for me to call; my opponent has $300 left in front of her. I've got $800.

I think, a raise of $300 is the wrong amount. If I play, all of the money is going in on the turn no matter what card falls. That's a wimpy raise, like she's trying to push me off but with scared money. If she were trapping, wouldn't she just call my bet? I'm gonna play. "Okay," I say, "let's dance," and I push my entire stack out. She calls me without hesitation. Whoops.

A queen falls on the turn, filling me up, and a blank on the river. I turn up my hand and say "Full house." She mucks without showing. "Did I suck out on you?" I ask. She nods. I put her on A7s, possibly, or more likely on 44.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that I played the hand badly on the flop. I think I should have bet out as I did, but surrendered to the raise, wimpy though it was. I got lucky, and won a big pot that by rights I think I ought to have lost. What lured me in was the oddly small raise when (it seemed to me) pot and stack sizes pretty much dictated that my opponent's raise ought to have been an all-in raise.

I would simply let it go as a terrible mistake that turned out well, except that in a tournament last night I played a hand with very similar action. My opponent, another stranger, had a smallish stack and I a smaller one (although we both had a good bit of play compared to the blinds.) She opened for a raise (3x the big blind); I called with AdTd Flop came T 7 5 rainbow with one card of my suit. I bet out the size of the pot. My opponent raised, committing half of her stack, the raise being rather less than the pot. Once again, I figured that if I played the money would go into the middle sooner or later, and I liked my hand. I pushed in, and she called. She had pocket tens for top set. Whoops.

By rights I should have walked out; but two running diamonds gave me the nut flush and the pot. I like my play of this hand rather better than the previous one I described, except for the business of responding to the too-small raise.

Okay, two hands which I pushed in with the worst of it and got lucky. I suppose I ought to reflect upon the general foolishness of doing so.

But their common factor, the small raise that leaves the raiser pot-tied, leaves me wondering: Is this a particular warning sign that I should be looking out for? Does it make a difference if stacks are deep?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I'm afraid that this type of raise will mean weakness from some players and strength from others, and occasionally a single person will vary what it means when they do it. You just need to learn the players, as I don't believe there is any strong tendency one way or the other.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)