Check or bet, that is the question

[Transference]

[ QUOTE ]
BUT WHEN VALUE BETTING do it often vs loose oppoents.

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The trouble with your analysis is that tight opponents call down with a ton of hands we have beat in a pot this large.

Not value betting this hand is a tremendous leak.
Never fold an overpair for 1 more in a pot this big without a specific read.

[POKhER]

True, but check CO's WTSD/W$SD and tell me how you would play a flushdraw? Equity flop raise? Sure.

Turn call? Sure.

River Raise? yep.

If he raises this river i dont see why you're calling and i think Bet/calling is a BIGGER LOSER if you repeat this hand 10000 times than not value betting the odd time he has KQ or so.

Guys... HE LIMPED PREFLOP. You honestly think he has top pair often ? more so than a flush draw?

Hmm all im saying is, i think BEt/Call is a huge leak.

C/C is fine.

bet/Fold is 2nd best due to pot size and whatever. But bet calling when he says he has you bet 3way when he looks to be on a FD is a mistake.

I'll check call this all the time, maybe i lose 1bb... But i certainly dont pay 2BB with Bet/call to win 1BB back.(yeh we got 2 callers so we win 2BB if they both call, but if Co raises we cann we pay 2 to lose... and my read says its a FD, i trust it).

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You seem to be discounting the fact that button is calling with a losing pair just about everytime he has one.

I didnt rule out a specific read on CO.

Does this look like a flush draw from a reasonably solid TAG? Absolutely, it also looks like QJ a busted straight draw and a handfull of more unlikely holdings.

Valuebetting these hands and not folding in big pots are such crucial principles that you need a very compelling reason to go against them, I don't feel like your making a strong enough case at all.

[POKhER]

Yeah i know QJ is likly also and few other holdings, however betting and being raised sucks... Are you calling this raise?(I'd want to fold due to potsize but i hate doing it and honestly think its -EV to call it).

For this reason i think we can choose to C/C as opposed to Bet/Call or Bet/Fold.

Not saying Bet/fold is hugely wrong, i do however feel Bet/Call will be a loser in the long run as:

When ahead assuming they both call the bets/raises.

We win 2BB(Bet = Call+Call) when no one raises.
We lose 2BB(bet/call = Raise+2called by other villan) when someone raises.

This is assuming he wont raise as a bluff, So its break even right.

of course theres other results i.e. The other guy raises, the other 3bets we fold. The guy calls and flips 2 pair... The guys both fold.... button has flush instead of CO and whatever else.

Fairly hard to calculate longterm EV i suppose.

HU i'd be more willing to value bet.