Limping QQ under the gun

[erc007]

In poker, there are never any absolutes. That said, limping QQ might be correct, or not so incorrect about 20% of the time. I won't go into the table conditions that might make this play +EV, but I will list (just a few) reasons why this move is definitely -EV 80% of the time.
(1) The odds that an Ace or a King will flop are 1.3 to 1, in other words it will happen 43% of the time.
(2)High pocket pairs (including AA and KK) play much better against one or two opponents. Please look at some of the numbers when you get the chance, you will see that the winning percentages for high pocket pairs decrease rapidly, as the field goes from 2 to 4-5 players.
(3)Assuming that you have some reads on your opponents, raising will help you define their hands.

These are just some basic facts and stats, and as I mentioned, mixing your play is always a good idea. I just feel that "checking and folding" QQ is just giving up too much value.

[akishore]

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(1) The odds that an Ace or a King will flop are 1.3 to 1, in other words it will happen 43% of the time.

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I don't see the significane of this.

These numbers don't change whether I raise or limp.


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(2)High pocket pairs (including AA and KK) play much better against one or two opponents. Please look at some of the numbers when you get the chance, you will see that the winning percentages for high pocket pairs decrease rapidly, as the field goes from 2 to 4-5 players.

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I don't really care much about winning percentages; I care about winning money.


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3)Assuming that you have some reads on your opponents, raising will help you define their hands.

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This is a grey area, but I believe that my opponents' hands tend to be better defined with a bet on the flop in a small, unraised pot, than they do with a continuation bet on a flop in a big, raised pot.

If the reasons aren't clear, I'll elaborate.


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I just feel that "checking and folding" QQ is just giving up too much value.

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Not doing that the 7 out of 8 times I don't flop a set, so I'm not just check/folding every non-Q flop.


Aseem

[erc007]

LOL...I'm not surprised that you don't get the significance of my 1st point. I'm only going to explain this point, and leave you to learn the others the hard way.
It's true that the numbers (43% of the time an A or K will flop) when you have QQ don't change. The point that you are missing here is that you have the power to change the number of players that will play hands that contain an A or a K. By raising pre-flop, you can significantly reduce the likelihood that your opponents will have an A or a K. Most good players won't call a raise from EP with Axs or KJ. I'm not going to go into the numbers to illustate this point any further, but I hope that you (the guy who is intersted in "winning money") can see that by eliminating even one potential player with Axs or KJ or KT, you have increased the expectation of this hand. There is still a 43% chance that an A or a K will flop, but the odds that an opponent is holding (one of these cards) now makes this outcome far less "significant."
FYI...Players interested in "winning money" like this hand...and will play it correctly (not passively)... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[akishore]

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LOL...I'm not surprised that you don't get the significance of my 1st point.

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No, I did, but I was setting up my next point.


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By raising pre-flop, you can significantly reduce the likelihood that your opponents will have an A or a K. Most good players won't call a raise from EP with Axs or KJ. I'm not going to go into the numbers to illustate this point any further, but I hope that you (the guy who is intersted in "winning money") can see that by eliminating even one potential player with Axs or KJ or KT, you have increased the expectation of this hand.

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The thing is, you haven't shown me that this increases my *expectation*; you have only shown me that it increases my *winning chances*, or the likelihood that my hand is best at showdown.

Again, this doesn't tell me that this wins me the most money.


Aseem

[erc007]

Once upon a time an old wise man told me to get your money into the middle of the table when you have the best cards. I now realize that he may have been suffering from Alzheimer's.
Thank you for enlightening me.
Seriously though...thanks for the discussion. I do see your points as well, and I do think that you sound like a solid, thinking, player...good luck and may the flop bring a queen (when you are on the button.) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[akishore]

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Once upon a time an old wise man told me to get your money into the middle of the table when you have the best cards. I now realize that he may have been suffering from Alzheimer's.
Thank you for enlightening me.
Seriously though...thanks for the discussion. I do see your points as well, and I do think that you sound like a solid, thinking, player...good luck and may the flop bring a queen (when you are on the button.) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Haha, I wasn't sure what to make of the first part of your post.

Thanks for the compliment, but again, I don't pretend to believe I am a perfect player or anything near it. I brought up this discussion precisely to analyze if what I'm doing is good/bad/okay.

Aseem

[noggindoc]

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In poker, there are never any absolutes.

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so it is absolute that there are no absolutes in poker?

[Hattifnatt]

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In poker, there are never any absolutes.

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so it is absolute that there are no absolutes in poker?

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There is an absolute that I'm not gonna muck the nutflush on the river.

On a paired board facing serious heat? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]