66 Hand

[Piiop]

10-handed, poker.

A really loose, passive player limps in EP, I limp after with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], TAG limps after me, maniac CO and LAG button surprisingly both fold, the SB raises, BB folds, all call. The SB is kind of LAG but decent, I'd imagine he'd raise ATs+, KQs, TT+, AKo, probably not AQo but maybe.

Flop (4 players, 9 SB): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, EP folds, I raise, TAG 3bets, SB calls, I call.

Turn (3 players, 9 BB): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, I check, TAG bets, SB calls, I should do what here?

I think the TAG has a J mostly, 55, 22 or possibly the nut frush. SB could have overcards with or without a diamond, or an overpair. I'd imagine I may occasionally have diamond outs if neither player has a one as well as the two 6's and 4 4's. Getting 11:1 to see the river, do I call?

[toss]

2 outs to a set and 3 clean outs to a straight. Good enough for me.

[flair1239]

I think your getting enough of an overlay closing the action to call.

I am more intersted in the straight outs and the set outs, than I am in the flush outs.

As a matter of fact, I would have a hard time calling a river bet to the 4th diamond unless it happend to be the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

But yes I am calling and folding unimproved.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
2 outs to a set and 3 clean outs to a straight. Good enough for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your set and straight outs aren't exactly clean as TAG will have a flush some portion of the time, but I agree that we have enough to continue here. Oh, and add one out to the pure nuts.

The more interesting question is how do we play the river if a fourth diamond falls and sb checks....

I actually fold that flop usually to the SB bet. I see too much reverse implied odds when I do improve on the turn. I also respect the bet into 3 players from the SB. That may be too weak?

Given the raise, I call the turn and fold UI. I bet/fold or call/fold any diamond, other than the 4 of course.

[toss]

I'd still check/fold if SB checks since I figure the other guy to be 3-betting with a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a fair portion of the time. Plus SB may call with something like T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or something. I don't think were good enough to bet into these two at the end.

[W. Deranged]

Outs-counting exercise:

Let's break it down in terms of what villain could have, as you suggest.

1. Villain has one pair, probably a J, and our :diamond draw is good: 10%

We have 2 set outs + 9 flush outs + 3 straight outs = 14 outs.

2. Villain has one pair, but we have no diamond draw. 40%.

We have 6 outs.

3. Villain has a set, and we have a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw. 10% of the time.

We have 13 outs.

4. Villain has a set, and we don't have a diamond draw. 15% of the time.


We have 6 outs.

5. Villain has a flush (which will beat ours all the time). 25% of the time.

We have 1 out.

We have 1.4 + 2.4 + 1.3 + .9 + .25 = 6.25 outs or so.

I think I'm slightly overestimating the chance we have a live diamond draw, but I think it's clear we probably have the outs to continue.

I bet/fold call/fold any river diamond. For value and fold equity.

[Piiop]

Yeah, I guess the turn decision is fairly easy. Outs should be discounted slightly since TAG may already have a flush, but I still have enough to call.

On the river, if a diamond hit and SB checks, I'd probably check and maybe call, but not overcall. Not sure how often the SB would bet a worse hand there, given he could check and showdown, but the pot would be 13 BBs at the point. If I hit a 6, I'd go for a checkraise and call a 3bet. If I hit the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I'd bet. If I hit a 4, I'd raise if SB bets and call a 3bet from TAG. If SB checks, I'd bet.