Is this hand indicitive of why I'm terrible at tournaments?

[Homebrew]

Hi all...my first post, so hope I get all the relevant info in. I've been playing the $3, $5, and $10 NL tourneys at Pokerstars and seem to just dwindle away about half way through. After reading these forums, I've been trying to play very tight until the blinds reach 25/50 or 50/100 and then start stealing and loosen up a little. Seems like the last several tournies I've gotten decent hands, gotten all my chips in, and then lost. I guess I'm trying to figure out how often do winning players actually put all their chips at risk in a tournament with 1000 to 2000 people? Only when they have the nuts? What's more important: pushing advantages or protecting chips.

Here's an example. This is from memory, but we're about 45 minutes in and the blinds are 50/100. I've recently been moved to this table but it doesn't seem an overly aggressive table. I have about 2200 in chips, about average. There are three limpers and I'm just off the button with J8 suited and I limp. I know I probably shouldn't even play this, but I decided to see the flop. The SB folds, and the BB checks. The flop is QJ8 rainbow. Checks around to the guy on my right (about 3500 in chips) who bets 300 into a 550 pot. I raise to 900, all fold, but the original bettor who goes all in. I call and he flips AQ. An Ace comes on the turn and I'm done.

Questions:

I know QJ and T9 are both distinct possibilities here. Should I be protecting my chips and try to see a cheap show down (or even fold), or should I be pushing two pair?

Go ahead and let me have it, I know I probably played this hand awful...but this brings up another question. If you knew 100% that you would have Jacks and eights against TPTK, would you put all your chips at risk this early?

Thanks much,
Jeff

[Toro]

Granted, I wouldn't play that starting hand but I wouldn't say that hand was as you say "the reason you suck at Tourneys". You played that hand great. You made a "read" that you had the "best" hand and managed to get all the money in as a substantal favorite.

That's a formula for success, I would say. You just got sucked out on is all.

[Myst]

You had a 72% edge. Even Phil Hellmuth couldnt pass this up.

[petvan]

I am no expert, but can't see how you get away from this hand. I posted a similar hand awhile back (though I was on the BB). I'd agree that playing this hand was likely the only quesitonable move, and your post flop play looks good to me.

If you are losing in tournies, maybe you are loosing up too early.

P

[Bernas]

Bad decision to see the flop with this hand.
That was the only bad decision you made on that hand though.

[KingMedicine]

one key thing to keep in mind about playing mtt's with several hundred or even thousands of people is that to get to the good money you're typically going to need to get to the final table or very close to it. being so, you're going to need to stay alive for 6-8 hours or longer.

one way i look at the big mtts is simply this: avoid having bad luck by avoiding the bad beats and avoiding any and every mistake you might make.

now, for the hand you posted, you already know your first mistake was to call preflop with J8s. that hand is junk and it should be an autofold unless you have some grand plan to bluff it or some other very advanced scheme in the works. the reason why you fold that hand and a ton of other hands like it is exactly the reason that you should have folded it here: you hit the flop fairly hard with two pair and you blew all your chips on it. tournament over.

when you are dealt a hand like J8s or even KJs think of that hand as a hand that is setting you up for disaster. you want to play hands that IF you hit the flop hard, you're going to be in great shape.

your last question is an interesting one: if i had J8 and the board came QJ8 and i KNEW FOR A FACT that the other player had AQ, would i put all my chips in there? the answer to this, for me at least, depends on a lot of details such as how many players are left, whether i think the other player would make this raise without a set or 2 higher pair, what the buy in is, how my stack is in relation to the avg and how i feel my skill level compares to the other players. If i had an avg stack and we were about 1/2 way thru the tourney and the buy-in was low (i.e. under 50$), id go ahead and call with J8 and take my shot as a 72% favorite. these being roughly the circumstances you were in, i dont think necessarily your call of the all-in was bad, but like i said, you shouldnt have been involved in the hand.

hope that helps a little and welcome to the forum.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I be protecting my chips and try to see a cheap show down (or even fold), or should I be pushing two pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to bother flopping two pair here, you've got to play it VERY fast. The way you played it is just fine...AQ got lucky. It happens.

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew 100% that you would have Jacks and eights against TPTK, would you put all your chips at risk this early?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.



Stack size and implied odds are very important in the early stages of these low buyin tournaments. Limping with J8s in LP is a decent play, as long as the variables are right; how big are your opponent's stacks? Are they paying off? Is the table playing tight, or loose and wild? You have to respond to the table.

You should be playing very tight well into the 50 and 100 levels...only open up your game when the antes kick in. The pot isn't worth stealing without the antes.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm trying to figure out how often do winning players actually put all their chips at risk in a tournament with 1000 to 2000 people? Only when they have the nuts? What's more important: pushing advantages or protecting chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are winning players on both sides of the spectrum.
I'm partial to playing more conservatively, but you could make a strong case for either strategy early in tournaments.

[Fudomyo]

I don't think you'll find too many players that will push TPTK early, so I would fold to the all in. Typically I lose to the top 2 pr here, or the set if I call here.

If he does push with TPTK then it's doubtful he'll get into the money anyway. Just wait for a better opp.

Good luck.

[SpeakEasy]

1. As others have already emphasized, folding this pre-flop is the best option. From my experiecne, these type of hands get into more trouble that they pay off. I especially wouldn't do this with a stack of only 2200 -- I would want to be well above average before I start playing these type of hands.

2. You say:
[ QUOTE ]
I know QJ and T9 are both distinct possibilities here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Its helpful to fully analyze the hand to understand all of the possibilities here.

What are the possible starting hands he would push with on the flop?
You are behind these starting hands:
QQ, JJ, QJ, T9, Q8, 88.
QQ and JJ (and maybe 88) are unlikely, because these hands would have been raised PF. So that leaves 4 possible limping hands (including 88) that you are already behind.

Other possible starting hands that he might push with, because the flop hit him (or came close) and he has additional outs (with # outs, and approximate % chance of hitting on turn or river):
AQ (5 outs, 20%), KQ (5 outs, 20%), QT (9 outs, 35%), Q9 (9 outs, 35%), KT (8 outs, 32%).

I would also include TT and 99 as possible starting hands that he might limp with (although TT, and maybe even 99, is probably a raise PF) and push on the basis that you are on a draw, and each have 6 outs to beat you.

So, that's 4 hands that your are behind, and 7 hands that you are ahead but he has outs.

As played, when he goes all in, the pot is 2650 and you have only 900 left. This is, without a doubt, a call because you are getting 3 to 1 on your money with 2 pair.

However, there is another way to play this that might have won the pot for you:

3. Instead of raising to 900 after his 300 bet, why not just go all in? With his 300 bet on the flop, the pot is 850. You have only 900 left after your raise to 900, and you are clearly committed at 3:1 if he goes all in after your 900 bet. An all-in bet by you for 1800 after his 300 bet on the flop, rather than just a raise to 900, would still give you some folding equity, since he will have to pay 1800 more to win the 2650 pot -- he's only getting 1.5 to 1 on his money. In addition, an all-in bet signals that your hand is ahead of his (which it was) because you're willing to risk your tournament life on that flop. This is how you can "play it faster" and maybe win the pot by forcing him to fold. You probably gave up any folding equity by only raising half your stack, rather than going all in (which you were bound to do anyway when he goes all in).

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
An all-in bet by you for 1800 after his 300 bet on the flop, rather than just a raise to 900, would still give you some folding equity, since he will have to pay 1800 more to win the 2650 pot -- he's only getting 1.5 to 1 on his money. In addition, an all-in bet signals that your hand is ahead of his (which it was) because you're willing to risk your tournament life on that flop. This is how you can "play it faster" and maybe win the pot by forcing him to fold. You probably gave up any folding equity by only raising half your stack, rather than going all in (which you were bound to do anyway when he goes all in).

[/ QUOTE ]
If you could please, toss out some numbers to show the EV of a line that maximizes fold equity, versus the EV of the line that maximizes showdown equity.