On the bubble

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I started out thinking I probably made the right play because I got my money in when I had the advangage (57 to 43 if I am not mistaken), even though it was on a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You did make the right play. The pot was over 25% of your stack so you're happy if he folds. If he calls, you're 50/50 at worst if called and you have significant dead money in the pot that makes the showdown solidly +EV for you (and HU you play straight EV). With the short stack, you can't sit around and wait for a better opportunity.

Later,
Che

[fnurt]

I think it would be better to bet something smaller, in order to induce a call from overcards. This is a great flop for you to hit against overcards and they certainly won't be calling an all-in, so you should try to make more from them.

[patrick dicaprio]

i did almost the exact same thing today! i was third place of three left, i had a relatively short stack next to the other two. I flopped bottom pair of fours and a draw, moved in and got called by KK and lost. but i would do it again and so should you.

Pat

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking through my responses to the comments on this board has helped refine my analysis on this hand. I started out thinking I probably made the right play because I got my money in when I had the advangage (57 to 43 if I am not mistaken), even though it was on a draw. I now think the better play would have been to check and fold to a bet. I don't think my opposition would have bluffed. That way I am either out to live another day, and hopefully get my money in with a bigger advantage, or I see a free card.


[/ QUOTE ]

that is extraordinarily illogical. You got your money in with the best hand, because you were 57% to win. If you arent willing to put your money in when you are favored to win the hand, when are you willing to? You said you don't think your opponent would have bluffed, because he didnt bluff. Just because the result was unfavorable, doesnt mean you made the wrong choice.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it would be better to bet something smaller, in order to induce a call from overcards. This is a great flop for you to hit against overcards and they certainly won't be calling an all-in, so you should try to make more from them.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what is the plan, fnurt? Do we bet the pot on the flop and then push the turn whatever falls?

Betting roughly the pot on the flop and then proceeding could easily be higher EV than pushing. However, that line is very risky for two reasons:

1. We don't *know* the opponent is on overcards. This is clearly the case since there was a misread on the hand in questions (not meant as a slight at the hero since we all make misreads - just a statement of fact). He could be on an overpair, a set, or overcards plus a straight draw that counterfeits 3 of our outs.
2. Even if we did *know* that he was on overcards, we wouldn't know exactly which ones so we will be in trouble if the turn is a non-flush paint card or A.

One of the benefits of pushing is that the hero will almost never make an FTOP error and when he does, it will be extremely small.

I don't think the risk of our misplaying the turn (plus the fact that we will frequently NOT get paid when we hit the turn) outweighs the benefits of chasing the extra EV. Of course, the added EV is tough to quantify plus the risk of misplay will vary from player to player so I'm not saying that your line is wrong because it would probably work well for you. I just think the all-in is better for inferior players like me. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

BTW I think it is interesting to note that we would prefer that the villain fold to the push rather than call despite the fact that we are 57:43 favorites (which is probably best case for the hero):

EV if villain folds: +4000
EV if villain calls: +4100

I don't think the extra 100 chips justify the risk of busting 43% of the time. I would extend the same risk/reward argument to the push versus bet flop decision.

Note: After review, this post looks rather weak. Hopefully, someone will counter any errors I have made.

Later,
Che

[Trainwreck]

I might check that perhaps inducing him to bet, I don't want him folding with all those outs.... and a free card there is OK IMHO, even same ploy to the river.

2 to 1 is IMHO not panic time, 5 to 1 is more my panic threshold.

>TW<

[Wahoo]

One thing coloring my thinking -- that I may have not been clear on -- is that the villian was a very bad player who had been getting cards. I had a clear advantage in heads up play. So in thinking about it, I have come to the conclusion that I should have waited for a greater advantage before putting all my money in. I guess I do not thing I made a bad play, I just do not think I made my best play.

Thanks,
Wahoo

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it would be better to bet something smaller, in order to induce a call from overcards. This is a great flop for you to hit against overcards and they certainly won't be calling an all-in, so you should try to make more from them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have mixed feelings on this line. On the one hand, it's a great spot to let overcards try to hit when they're making a mistake, on the other hand, a non-spade overcard to the board, then a push from your o makes life very difficult and its a tough decision. And if a spade does it, it could kill your action.

I suppose it depends on your opponent and how he plays different holdings.

--Greg