AQo Turn Spot and Plan

[Piiop]

Party 15 10-handed.

I join and post in the hijack. 2 folds, average/bad (21/6/1 1700 hands) player I know well limps, 1 fold, very aggressive player (23/14/3.75 260 hands) I know only from datamining raises, I 3bet with black AQo, folded back around and they both call.

Flop (10sb): J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, both call.

Turn (13sb): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check, bet, I.. do what?

Fold?

Call? If I call, what am I doing on the river unimproved if UTG+2 calls/folds the turn? What if I hit an A/Q?

Raise? Doing what to a 3bet and doing what on the river?

The turn donk by MP2 is interesting. The 7 isn't helping him unless he has A7s. It could be a J or TT-66, but I think I wouldve seen more action on the flop from those hands. I really feel like I have him beat here, but UTG+2 is still in the hand. If I raise here, I think he'll fold a pair a lot of the time as well as charging him for a possible draw.

[Jake (The Snake)]

bump as this is a fairly common situation and one I think I might be misplaying

to me, i tend to give slightly more respect for this awkward bet when someone with fairly good stats is trying it. i think he'll have the 7 more often than normal (though still not often) and is trying to bet/3bet. he could also have a pp, jack, or air.

the pot is fairly big, but not quite big enough to make a move and hope he is doing this with air. if he is doing it with air, he might be capable of 3betting or c.ring the river or something to push us off the best hand, not to mention the fact that he might actually still river something and beat us. then theres the other player, maybe he'll wake up with something.

so here i'd fold, but against a worse player or someone who i know will bluff often, id raise

[brettbrettr]

I looked at this post last night, said "ugh, that sucks," and went to bed.

Anyways, since you said this

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I really feel like I have him beat here, but UTG+2 is still in the hand. If I raise here, I think he'll fold a pair a lot of the time as well as charging him for a possible draw.

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I guess a raise is in order. I think you'll have to fold to a river donk if its three-ways (because you'd have to raise to win and that might be too much spew), and possibly call (which also sucks) if its HU.

Really, this spot sucks and I don't know.

[paperboyNC]

I like raising here and taking a free showdown.

Not sure what to do if he 3bets though.

[molawn2mo]

OK... I've made myself a promise to answer some of the more ugly-type hands posted because I feel like I suck at them.

That said... I fold to this donk. If he's not effin a round he's got a little PP and I am behind. If he is effin around, he may have 6 live outs or be on a flushie with 9 outs. Not to mention I have the limper to be concerned with.

These are the hands the type hands that if consistantly played add to variance and tilt. There! Tell me to hike up my skirt! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Really, this spot sucks and I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]
I couldnt agree more with this quote. If I were heads up I would just call down against this opponent. Since this pot has another guy in there that did call a flop bet, I would fold hoping the other guy can keep the villain honest. I think the chances that the villain somehow has something combined with the chance that the other guy has a hand makes folding the best play. But I honestly think the turn is very close between folding and raising. I really dont see how the villain has a hand, and the other guy may not call if the hero raises the turn. Given that I think both plays are close in expectation I will take the low variance route and just fold the turn.

[brettbrettr]

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think the chances that the villain somehow has something combined with the chance that the other guy has a hand makes folding the best play.

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Yeah, this is what I"ve been thinking too. I'm trying to avoid these sorts of optimistic parlays where you have to be right, on both accounts, a very high percentage of the time.

[Piiop]

Heh, well I'm glad you guys at least think it's an annoying/tough situation too.

Part of the reason for the hard decision is my lack of a real read on MP2. There are a lot of players I would feel fine, even happy, raising this turn. But against this played I wasn't sure and it's harder to judge just how often he's betting and with what.

Raising has some benefits, but also a lot of drawbacks. Raising the turn will cause UTG+2 to fold a better hand some of the time or at least charge him to draw. We also get to take a free showdown if we want it. However, we open ourselves up to a 3bet, UTG+2 might not fold a better hand, and we might get donked on the river anyway. Some of the time, UTG+2 will be folding to 1 bet on the turn.

Folding isn't unreasonable either. The pot isn't that large and though we might have MP2 beat some of the time, there is still UTG+2 to worry about.

Calling seems bad here. If we're ahead of MP2, we want to do what we can to protect our hand and possibly fold out a better hand from UTG+2. I think the odds really depend on how often you estimate he's betting out with nothing, which the more I think about it, I don't think is very often.

[Piiop]

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I would fold hoping the other guy can keep the villain honest.

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I hate when I think like that in a hand and the guy I'm depending on to call folds. It's one of the more frustrating things that happens when I'm playing, I really think being able to utilize bad players in pots with other good players is very important.

Also, given the preflop action, does anyone think he's trying to bet/fold the turn with a small pair. I mean, I did 3bet preflop, you think he's donking a pair hoping to charge AK, but how often to you think he'll fold if I raise. I don't think this player calls a lot.

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I would fold hoping the other guy can keep the villain honest.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate when I think like that in a hand and the guy I'm depending on to call folds. It's one of the more frustrating things that happens when I'm playing, I really think being able to utilize bad players in pots with other good players is very important.

Also, given the preflop action, does anyone think he's trying to bet/fold the turn with a small pair. I mean, I did 3bet preflop, you think he's donking a pair hoping to charge AK, but how often to you think he'll fold if I raise. I don't think this player calls a lot.

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If you think this player is capable of folding a pair then thats more reason to raise instead of folding, but I dont think that the villain will fold such a hand.