A weird hand I played

[Piiop]

Party Poker Full. Good table.

Lineup:

UTG+1 - Loose/bad kind of aggressive bad player I know well. Stats are 36/10/8 after 620 hands.

MP1 - LAG maniac. Stats are 57/17/1.2 after 170 hands.

Me - Card dead rock.

SB - Seems pretty loose, kinda new to the table. Only had about 20 hands when this hand occured.

BB - basic call station. Stats are like 22/6/.7 afer 150 hands.

(Everyone not mentioned folds preflop)

I have T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG+1 limps, MP1 raises, I 3bet, everyone calls.

Flop (15 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I check.

Turn (7 BB): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me again, I bet, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River (10 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, MP1 bets, I...?

On the river, I believe that I am ahead of MP1 almost all the time. There's no way he would've checked the flop and turn with a K or a Q. The only thing he could have that beats me is the backdoor diamond draw, but he most likely has nothing or a smaller pair. So, I think my decision here is between calling or raising.

Also, what about my flop check? Against 4 other players I wasn't too happy about my hand. Two overcards, flush draw, and straight draw I was ready to give it up.

[sy_or_bust]

I don't think he's necessarily a maniac with those stats, but if he is I raise for sure.

[Student Caine]

Why do you think that the MP (or BB) does not have a diamond draw? The draw is not backdoor as you stated, but even if it was, both players got to the turn for free.

I definitely call here for my 11:1 odds, because I believe you are ahead at least 9% of the time. I don't think I raise here though for 2 reasons:

1) I don't want to cut my implied odds in half, as it means I will now need to be ahead 20'ish% of the time to make this a +EV play.

2) More importantly, you have a chance to risk 1 BB to win 2. If you call and BB calls (which he probably will here with anything that hit the board) then you win 2BB. If you raise and BB folds then you either win the same 2BB (if MP calls) or lose 3BB (if MP re-raises).

Keep in mind though that I am entirely too weak-tight.

[Redd]

Is the flop check standard for everyone?

edit: I raise-fold the river due to BB's potential queen. Or at least I say I do when I'm not in the hand.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he's necessarily a maniac with those stats, but if he is I raise for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I've seen worse, but he definitely is very loose, aggressive, and crazy.

[ QUOTE ]
Is the flop check standard for everyone?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. That's why I posted it.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think that the MP (or BB) does not have a diamond draw? The draw is not backdoor as you stated, but even if it was, both players got to the turn for free.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's definitely possible that either player hit a flush. The reason I don't think MP1 does is that he would've bet a flush draw either on the flop, or on the turn after the flop was checked. For the same, reason I don't think he has K or a Q. I do think he will bluff bet the river "scare" card frequently because he's that type of player and I checked the flop. I'd estimate I'm ahead of MP1 90% of the time here.

The BB is a different story. He could have a wide range of hands since the flop was checked thru and there are a lot of draws on the board.

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely call here for my 11:1 odds, because I believe you are ahead at least 9% of the time. I don't think I raise here though for 2 reasons:

1) I don't want to cut my implied odds in half, as it means I will now need to be ahead 20'ish% of the time to make this a +EV play.

2) More importantly, you have a chance to risk 1 BB to win 2. If you call and BB calls (which he probably will here with anything that hit the board) then you win 2BB. If you raise and BB folds then you either win the same 2BB (if MP calls) or lose 3BB (if MP re-raises).


[/ QUOTE ]

You need to factor in the times that BB has me beat but a raise causes him to fold and me to win the whole pot. It's basically the whole point of the river question.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to factor in the times that BB has me beat but a raise causes him to fold and me to win the whole pot. It's basically the whole point of the river question.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about that, but how often do you think he has you beaten? I guess since he is in a Blind you think that he could have Q-rag; I would think that QT+ bets the turn here?

If he is s00ted, he isn't folding here, and if he had K-rag I think he would have bet out (or at least he isn't folding).